Leading international organizations, including the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the Centre for Climate Services (C3S), have developed an extensive a document that provides a comprehensive overview of the interplay between climate change and the potential of renewable energy sources. This report stresses the necessity of integrating climate information into energy planning to increase the reliability and resilience of global energy systems.

The impact of climate change on energy

The report analyses how climate variability, including El Niño and La Niña, affects wind, solar and hydropower generation and energy consumption in different regions of the world. In 2023, there were significant changes in energy indicators related to climate variability and change. These changes vary by technology and country, with the warmest year on record, with a global average temperature 1.45°C above the 1850–1900 average, leading to large and diverse anomalies in annual and monthly energy production averages.

Key recommendations for energy transformation

One of the main conclusions of the report is the need to diversify energy portfolios and strengthen regional cooperation. The combination of solar, wind and hydropower, together with new technologies, is essential to manage the impacts of climate variability and ensure energy security. The report also calls for the modernisation of energy markets to ensure flexibility in the transition from centralised to decentralised energy systems, and supports the procurement of renewables and flexible solutions.

The importance of seasonal climate forecasts

Seasonal climate forecasts play a key role in adapting energy systems to climate variability. Forecasts of wind speed, solar radiation, precipitation and temperature allow energy planners to better anticipate and respond to climate fluctuations, thereby increasing the reliability and sustainability of energy systems.

Regional perspectives and opportunities

The report also provides detailed analyses for different regions of the world. In Africa, it focuses on countries such as Mozambique, Tanzania, Malawi and Zambia, which have great potential for renewable energy development. In Asia, attention is focused on countries in the Middle East, including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman and Yemen, where climate conditions affect energy systems. South America, with countries such as Chile, Colombia, Peru and Brazil, offers significant opportunities for the use of solar and wind energy, taking into account seasonal climate forecasts.

Opportunities for developing countries

Developing countries have enormous potential to harness renewable energy to address energy access challenges, while also leveraging knowledge of climate variability to effectively develop energy infrastructure. Integrating climate information into planning will enable these countries to optimize the use of their renewable resources and enhance energy security.

Energy data collection and sharing

The report also underlines the importance of comprehensive energy data collection and sharing. Transparent and systematic approaches enable better modelling of the impacts of climate variability on energy supply and demand, leading to more informed decision-making and more efficient management of energy systems.

The report is a valuable resource for policymakers, energy professionals and all energy stakeholders, providing deep insights into the challenges and opportunities associated with the transition to sustainable and low-carbon energy systems, contributing to global efforts to mitigate climate change and achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Spring

Glossary of Key Terms

• Capacity Factor (CF): The ratio between the average electrical energy produced and the rated (or maximum) power of the power system.
• El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): A climatic phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean that affects global weather patterns, including temperatures and precipitation.
• Renewable Energy (RE): Energy obtained from natural processes that are constantly replenished, such as solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and biomass.
• Energy Degree Days (EDD): The sum of heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD), used as a proxy for energy demand.
• Heating Degree Days (HDD): An indicator that assesses the level of coldness over a certain period of time and indicates the need for heating.
• Cooling Degree Days (CDD): An indicator that assesses the level of heat over a certain period of time and indicates the need for cooling.
• Hydropower Proxy / Hydropower Proxy: An indicator that represents the potential for hydropower based on a combination of precipitation and installed hydropower capacity.
• Seasonal Forecast: Forecasting weather conditions over a longer period of time (e.g., a month or season) that is used for planning in various sectors.
• Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS): A metric for assessing the quality of seasonal forecasts that compares the accuracy of forecasts with a reference forecast (e.g., a climatological forecast).
• Tercile / Tercil: Dividing data into three equally likely categories (upper, middle, lower), which are used to present probabilistic seasonal forecasts.
• Installed-Capacity-Weighted Total Precipitation (IWP): Proxy indicator for hydropower, calculated as total rainfall weighted by installed hydropower capacity.
• ERA5: Reanalysis of global datasets from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), providing comprehensive information on atmospheric conditions.