Documents provides a preliminary estimate of the climate change mitigation potential through the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) Strategic Plans in 18 EU Member States (EU-18) over the period 2018-2020. 2023-2027. It will assess the contribution of different CAP instruments, such as Good Agricultural and Environmental Condition (GAEC) standards and CAP interventions, to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing carbon removals. The aim is to provide stakeholders with an accessible overview of the findings. The final version, which will also include data for all EU Member States (EU-27), will be published in the EU CAP Network publications database in the first quarter of 2025.

Key points:

• Emissions from agriculture: In 2022, the EU agricultural sector is estimated to have produced 366 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), accounting for 11 % of the EU's total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Two thirds of these emissions come from the livestock sector.
• CAP objectives: The CAP strategic plans aim to increase carbon storage and reduce emissions sources. 32% of the total CAP funding is dedicated to supporting climate, water, soil, air, biodiversity and animal welfare.
• Methodology: The study links CAP instruments to mitigation potential in 18 EU Member States. The methodology is based on programming data, estimated implementation levels and average emission and removal factors for agricultural practices. The results are aggregated according to the Common Reporting Format (CRF) categories of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
• Estimated mitigation potential: Analysis of 19 CAP strategic plans suggests potential positive contribution to greenhouse gas emission reductions and increased removals at the level of 31.2 million tons of CO2e per year across the EU-18. Over the five-year implementation period, this represents a cumulative total of 156 million tonnes of CO2e.
• Carbon storage in arable land: 64 % of estimated mitigation potential is related to CRF category 4.B – Cropland, which corresponds to carbon storage in cropland soils. This estimated potential represents 5 % of total emissions reported for 2021 in the agriculture and LULUCF (land use, land use change and forestry) sectors.
• Reducing emissions from agricultural lands and wetlands: The second largest estimated potential effect is the reduction of non-CO2 emissions from agricultural lands and wetlands (categories 3.D – agricultural lands and 4.D – wetlands), which represents 30 % and 5 %, respectively.
• Low potential for livestock production: The estimated potential CAP contribution associated with categories 3.A – enteric fermentation and 3.B – manure management is low. This is due to the lack of data and the fact that few interventions target these practices.
• LULUCF objectives: The LULUCF Regulation (EU) 2018/841 sets an EU target of 310 million tonnes of CO2e of net removals by 2030. To achieve this target, an increase in carbon storage capacity of 42 million tonnes of CO2e is needed. The analysis suggests that the CAP could contribute to an increase in carbon sequestration of around 22 million tonnes of CO2e per year. This represents 8 % of the LULUCF target by 2030 and 56 % of the required increase in capture capacity by 2030.
• Protection of existing carbon sinks: Analysis of the 19 CAP suggests a potential positive contribution to the protection of existing carbon sinks of 29 million tonnes of CO2e per year across the EU-18. Support for maintaining organic farming accounts for more than half (54 million tonnes of CO2e) of the estimated protection potential, followed by forestry maintenance (22 million tonnes of CO2e) and grassland protection (18 million tonnes of CO2e).
• GAEC: In the case of GAEC (Good Agricultural and Environmental Conditions), quantifying their contribution is difficult. A conservative approach shows a small net additional potential contribution.
• The most important agricultural practices: The 20 agricultural practices that contribute most to the estimated mitigation potential include conversion to organic farming, fallow crops, green cover on permanent crops, and crop rotation.
• Differences between Member States: The estimated mitigation potential varies considerably between CAPs. Four CAPs – France, Germany, Italy and Poland – account for 44 % of the total estimated mitigation potential.
• Changes in CAP regulations: Changes in CAP regulations may affect the estimated potential effects.
• Limitations: The methodology is based on assumptions and simplifications, which leads to uncertainties in the estimates. The estimates do not include indirect effects of land use changes. The study only includes those agricultural practices for which data are available to determine the coefficient.
• Recommendations for improvement: The documents contain recommendations for improving the methodology and accuracy of estimates.

Documents provide initial estimate of climate change mitigation potential within the CAP strategic plans. Further work is needed to improve the methodology and reduce uncertainties in the estimates. Spring

Glossary of key terms

• CO2e (Carbon Dioxide Equivalent): A unit for measuring the impact of various greenhouse gases compared to carbon dioxide (CO2).
• CAP (Common Agricultural Policy): A set of European Union rules and regulations governing agricultural production and support.
• CIS (Coupled Income Support): Income support for farmers linked to the production of specific crops or livestock species.
• CRF (Common Reporting Format): A standardized format for reporting greenhouse gas emissions used in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
• CSP (CAP Strategic Plans): National plans drawn up by EU Member States under the CAP, which set out objectives and measures to support agriculture and rural development.
• EEA (European Environment Agency): An EU agency that provides environmental information and assessments.
• ESR (Effort Sharing Regulation (EU) 2018/842): An EU regulation that sets binding annual reductions in greenhouse gas emissions for Member States in sectors not covered by the EU ETS.
• EU (European Union): A political and economic grouping of 27 European countries.
• EU-18: 18 EU Member States included in the study.
• GAEC (Good Agricultural and Environmental Conditions): A set of basic standards and requirements that farmers must meet to receive support under the CAP.
• GHG (Greenhouse Gas): A gas that absorbs and emits infrared radiation, thereby contributing to the greenhouse effect and climate change.
• LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry): The sector that deals with greenhouse gas emissions and removals associated with land use, land use change and forestry.
• UAA (Utilised Agricultural Area): Total area of land used for agricultural production.
• UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change): An international treaty aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
• ENVCLIM (Environmental, Climate-related, and Other Management Commitments): CAP interventions that support environmental and climate objectives through farmers' management commitments.
• INVEST (Investments): CAP interventions that support investments in agriculture and rural development.