New study suggests that reintroducing wolves to the Scottish Highlands could have a major impact on reducing carbon emissions and restoring native forestsThe research, published in the journal Ecological Solutions and Evidence, combines predator-prey, potential vegetation and carbon sequestration models to estimate the impact of the return of wolves on the Scottish Highlands ecosystem.

Wolves as regulators of deer populations

A key finding of the study is that wolves could effectively regulate deer populations. High deer populations in Scotland are hindering natural forest regeneration as deer graze on young saplings. Modelling suggests that a population of 167 wolves could reduce the number of deer to below 4 individuals per km2, which is the level that allows for natural forest regeneration.

Forest expansion and carbon sequestration

The subsequent expansion of forests would have a significant impact on carbon sequestrationThe study estimates that forest restoration would lead to an average annual sequestration of 1.0 ± 0.1 Mt CO2, with each wolf contributing 6080 t CO2 sequestration per year. In total, 102 ± 10 Mt CO2 could be sequestered over a 100-year period.

Economic benefits and climate goals

In addition to the ecological benefits, the study also points to potential economic benefits of wolf reintroductionIt is estimated that the value of carbon sequestration from forest restoration would reach £2,580 million over 100 yearsThis amount could be used to fund additional conservation projects and compensate local communities.

Challenges and future steps

The study focuses on four large areas of wildland in the Scottish Highlands: the Cairngorms, the South West Highlands, the Central Highlands and the North West Highlands. Although the study provides encouraging results, the authors point out some simplifications in the models. For example, the models do not take into account changes in prey behaviour, conflicts between humans and wolves, or changes in nutrient cycling. Therefore, before any reintroduction of wolves, it is necessary to comprehensive dialogue with stakeholdersIt is necessary to assess potential challenges and find ways to ensure that ecosystem restoration benefits everyone, including landowners, farmers and local communities.

Reintroducing wolves could be a key step towards restoring ecosystems and solving the climate crisis.

Spring

DV Spracklen, P.J. Chapman, T. Fletcher, SE Lane, EB Nilsen, M. Perks, L. Schofield and CE Scott

Glossary of key terms

• Carbon sequestration: The process of removing CO2 from the atmosphere and storing it in plants, soil, oceans, or geological formations.
• Trophic cascade: Indirect interactions in an ecosystem that occur when a predator at the highest level suppresses the abundance of its prey, freeing up lower trophic levels.
• Native forests: Forests that have developed naturally in a region and consist of native tree species.
• Natural colonization: The natural spread and establishment of plants in a certain area without direct human intervention, such as planting trees.
• Beasts: Carnivorous animals that hunt and feed on other animals.
• Wild Land Areas (WLA): Areas defined in Scotland as extensive areas of high wilderness in terms of perceived naturalness, rugged terrain and distance from public mechanised access.
• Markov predator-prey model: A statistical model used to simulate the population dynamics of a predator (e.g., wolf) and prey (e.g., deer) over time.
• National Vegetation Classification (NVC): A system for classifying and mapping vegetation types based on species composition and environmental conditions.
• Environment capacity: The maximum population size of a species that an environment can sustain given the available resources.
• Ecotourism: Tourism based on the enjoyment of natural areas, often with the aim of supporting nature conservation and local communities.