Implementing the EU's 2040 climate target: Building blocks and measures

A message "Implementing the EU 2040 Climate Target: Building Blocks and Measures" by Nils Meyer-Ohlendorf et al. from the Ecologic Institute and the Oeko-Institute deals with the implementation of the new EU 2040 climate target, which is a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 90 % compared to 1990.

Key points of the report:

  • Basic building blocks for achieving the 2040 target.
  • Reducing energy consumption is essential for reducing emissions. Gross available energy (GAE) is expected to fall by around 30 % from 1450 Mtoe in 2021 to around 1020 Mtoe in 2040.
  • Availability of green electricity is key for the electrification of transport, buildings and industry, as well as for the production of renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO) and direct air carbon capture (DACC). Energy storage capacity is expected to increase by up to tenfold between 2020 and 2040.
  • Sustainable biomass is another important building block, with its use projected to increase by 30 % in scenarios S2 and S3, representing approximately 20 % of the gross available energy (GAE) share in 2040.
  • Green hydrogen plays a key role, with hydrogen consumption expected to grow rapidly to reach 55-95 Mtoe by 2040 in scenarios S1-S2-S3. However, green hydrogen production is in its early stages.
  • Carbon capture and storage (CCS) plays an important role in the IA scenarios, with annual carbon sequestration increasing to around 220 MtCO2/year in scenario 2 (S2) and around 350 MtCO2/year in scenario 3 (S3).
  • Carbon removal is another important building block, projected to reach up to 400 MtCO2 in 2040. Carbon removal through LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry) is expected to contribute the most, but faces challenges due to climate change and increased demand for biomass.
  • Financing and investments are essential to achieving emission reduction targets. However, financing needs are uncertain and fossil fuel subsidies increased in 2022.
  • Demand-side measures They are complementary but essential. They reduce the need for electricity and hydrogen, reduce food waste, and reduce the need for carbon removal.

Sectoral measures:

  • Industry: To achieve emission reductions, electrification of low and medium temperature processes, improvement of the circular economy and material efficiency are essential.
  • Transportation: Key measures include electrifying road transport, shifting transport to cleaner modes, reducing the greenhouse gas intensity of the fuel mix and increasing energy efficiency.
  • Energy: To achieve emission reductions, the expansion of renewable energy sources and, possibly, the use of nuclear energy is essential.
  • Buildings: Key measures include setting minimum energy efficiency standards (MEPS), increasing the share of renewable energies and phasing out fossil fuel boilers.
  • Agriculture: Reducing emissions requires reducing the number of livestock, changing eating habits and reducing food waste.

The report highlights that achieving the target of reducing emissions by 90% by 2040 requires far-reaching changes across sectors and that ambitious measures and policies need to be adopted urgently. Spring

Glossary of Key Terms

  • BECCS (Bioenergy Carbon Capture and Storage): Carbon capture and storage from biomass power plants.
  • BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle): Battery electric vehicle.
  • CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism): Carbon border balancing mechanism.
  • CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage): Capture and storage of carbon dioxide from industrial sources.
  • CCU (Carbon Capture and Utilization): Capture and use of carbon dioxide for commercial purposes.
  • CDR (Carbon Dioxide Removal): Removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
  • CO2e (Carbon Dioxide Equivalent): Carbon dioxide equivalent, used to compare the impact of different greenhouse gases.
  • DACCS (Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage): Capturing carbon dioxide directly from the air and storing it.
  • ECL (European Climate Law): The European Climate Law sets the legal framework for the EU's climate goals.
  • EED (Energy Efficiency Directive): Energy Efficiency Directive.
  • ETS (European Emissions Trading System): European Emissions Trading System.
  • GAE (Gross Available Energy): Gross available energy.
  • GHG (Greenhouse Gas): Greenhouse gas.
  • IA (Impact Assessment): Impact assessment.
  • ICE (Internal Combustion Engine): Internal combustion engine.
  • LULUCF (Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry): Land use, land use change and forestry sector.
  • Mtoe (Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent): One million tons of oil equivalent, a unit of energy.
  • RFNBOs (Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin): Renewable fuels of non-biological origin (e.g. hydrogen produced from renewable energy).
  • SAFs (Sustainable Aviation Fuels): Sustainable aviation fuels.
  • TEN-E (Trans-European Networks for Energy): Trans-European energy networks.
  • TYNDPs (Ten-Year Network Development Plans): Ten-year network development plans.
  • WAM (With Additional Measures): Projections with additional measures.
  • ZEVs (Zero-Emission Vehicles): Zero-emission vehicles.

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