The goal of the European Union is to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 within the framework of the comprehensive green agreement concluded four years ago. An analysis of the policy documents of the Green Deal reveals that that while it will help reduce carbon emissions in Europe, it will also increase emissions outside the EU by more than double the saved European emissions. This research by an international team of scientists led by a professor from the University of Groningen was published in Nature Sustainability.

The European Green Deal is a set of policies designed to achieve full decarbonisation of Europe by 2050, including measures for clean energy production and ecological restoration. Hubacek and his colleagues from the US and China analyzed the supply chain of the Green Deal policy documents and found that the agreement would lead to an increase in emissions of 244.8 % in non-EU countries compared to the agreement's targets for reducing carbon emissions within the EU.

One initiative is to plant three billion trees to increase biodiversity in Europe. However, this requires land that cannot be used for food production, which means that food has to be produced in other regions and leads to the conversion of land to agriculture, which increases carbon dioxide emissions and reduces biodiversity. In this way, the EU would reduce emissions within its borders, but would 'export' them to countries such as Africa or South America.

The Green Deal includes a provision banning imports of products that convert forests into farmland, but it does not prevent other countries from growing products at the expense of the local market. It also proposes increasing organic agricultural production in Europe, which could require more farmland.

The scientists also explored options to improve overall carbon reduction. They found that adopting a “planetary healthy diet” based on plants could significantly reduce carbon emissions. The next step could be to phase out biofuels from food sources in the EU and help developing regions improve agricultural efficiency.

Although the current Green Deal could lead to negative consequences for the global environment, scientists believe that these problems are solvable. They also point out the need to reduce consumption, as all production requires resources, and "green growth" may not be achievable without changing the current approach. (Co2AI)