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The term global warming describes the long-term increase in the temperature of the Earth's climate system, observed since the pre-industrial period (1850–1900) due to human activity, particularly the burning of fossil fuels, which leads to an increase in the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that trap heat. The term is often used synonymously with the term climate change. Climate change has been a historical phenomenon, but the current changes are faster than any known event in Earth's history.
⚙️ Causes of warming
The main causes are greenhouse gas emissions, primarily carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane, most of which come from the burning of fossil fuels for energy. Other significant sources include agriculture, steelmaking, cement production, and deforestation. Feedbacks such as the reduction of snow cover, which would otherwise reflect sunlight, and the release of carbon dioxide from drought-stricken forests, which together amplify global warming, also contribute to rising temperatures.
🌡️ Physical impacts
Land temperatures are rising about twice as fast as the global average, leading to expanding deserts, more frequent heat waves and forest fires. Increased warming in the Arctic is contributing to melting permafrost, retreating glaciers and shrinking sea ice. Higher temperatures are also causing more intense storms and other extreme weather events. In zones such as coral reefs, mountainous regions and the Arctic, many species are being forced to relocate or become extinct due to climate change.
⚠️ Risks for society
This change threatens people with food and water shortages, increased risk of flooding, extreme heat, increased disease and economic losses, which may also drive migration. The World Health Organization considers climate change to be the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century. Even if future warming is averted, some of the consequences will last for centuries, such as rising sea levels and warmer and more acidic oceans.
🔍 Current status and predictions
Many of these impacts are already observable at current levels of warming of around 1.2°C. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts even more severe consequences if warming is maintained at 1.5°C or higher. Further warming increases the risk of tipping points in the climate system, such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. Responding to these changes requires taking action to mitigate warming and adapt to these changes.
♻️ Measures and solutions
This includes reducing greenhouse gas emissions and removing them from the atmosphere through greater use of wind and solar power, phasing out fossil fuels and improving energy efficiency. Switching to electric vehicles, public transport and heat pumps for homes and commercial buildings would also help reduce emissions. Preventing deforestation and protecting forests can also help absorb CO₂. Society can adapt by better protecting coastlines, managing disasters and developing more resilient crops, but adaptation efforts alone cannot prevent severe, widespread and lasting impacts.
📜 Paris Agreement
The 2015 Paris Agreement commits countries to keeping global warming “well below 2°C” through mitigation efforts. However, even with the commitments made, global warming could reach around 2.7°C by the end of the century. Limiting warming to 1.5°C would require cutting emissions in half by 2030 and reaching net zero emissions by 2050.
🔮 Assumed scenarios
It is projected that by 2100, the Earth's surface temperature will increase by 0.3 to 1.7 °C with a significant reduction in CO₂ production, or by 2.6 to 4.8 °C with today's CO₂ production rate. Uncertainties in temperature increase estimates arise from the use of different models with changes in the sensitivity of temperature to greenhouse gas concentrations.
📊 Regional differences
However, the expected warming and associated changes will not be the same in different regions. Climate variability will increase locally but will not necessarily decrease globally. Warming is expected to be more pronounced over land than over oceans, and most pronounced in the Arctic, associated with continued melting of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice, rising sea levels, changes in precipitation and expansion of subtropical deserts.
🌪️ Extreme climate events
Other expected events include more frequent extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, wildfires, torrential rains and floods, intense snowfall, ocean acidification, and mass extinctions of species.
🧬 Consequences for humanity
Of the consequences that are important to humans, the loss of food security due to declining agricultural yields and the loss of habitat due to coastal flooding are particularly significant. Because the climate system has a large inertia and greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere for a long time, many of these effects will last not just decades or centuries, but tens of thousands of years.
🧠 Terminology and meaning of terms
The term global warming generally includes human activity. The more neutral term climate change is used for changes in climate without assuming a cause. A notable exception is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which uses the term climate change for changes caused by human activity and climate variability for changes without human intervention. The term climate change is also sometimes used to imply human influence. Spring
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