New research suggests that increasing water and food shortages caused by climate change are fueling conflict in densely populated, violence-prone Central American cities. Why this matters: It’s no secret that water scarcity fuels domestic, social, and political instability. The role of drought in agricultural production and food security, and its link to conflict, is less well known. The annual spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group are taking place in Washington this week, with climate change and the global food crisis in the spotlight. What they found: A new study published in the journal Nature Water suggests that declining rural food production in Central America may be increasing food insecurity in interconnected urban environments, thanks to the critical role of food trade. The work links droughts, food availability, and urban conflict rates between 1996 and 2016 along the Central American “dry corridor.” The “dry corridor” is an ecological region along the Pacific coast that stretches from southern Mexico to Panama and includes Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Enlarge: Several cities in the tropical dry zone are known for high rates of homicide and urban violence—and more than a quarter of residents lack the income needed to buy food. Rural communities in the “dry corridor” also suffer from the canícula, an extremely dry season that regularly “interrupts” the rainy season during July and August, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. How it works: The lack of rainfall negatively affects the production of crops such as staple seasonal cereals, which are the main source of food and income for low-income households that depend on local agriculture. What they say: Lead author Martina Sardo, a PhD candidate in civil and environmental engineering and a researcher at Politecnico di Milano, tells Axios that their new work is one of the first to quantitatively measure the impact of climate-induced food insecurity on conflict. In numbers: One example is the impact of the 2009 Guatemalan drought, which caused a significant drop in agricultural yields for coffee (-20 %), sugarcane (-10 %), and corn (-30 %) in the rural town of Retalhuleu in southwestern Guatemala, where the canícula is felt more intensely. This in turn increased food insecurity in Guatemala City, which is connected to Retalhuleu through food trade, resulting in the total available food supply being less than the minimum daily energy needs. That same year, the number of conflicts in Guatemala City increased significantly. “When droughts occur… food flows are reduced,” says Sardo. Notably, research further reinforces the role of climate as a “threat multiplier.” A 2022 analysis by the World Food Programme and CGIAR found that climate shocks to food production “limit rural prosperity and hinder food security” in the Central American Dry Corridor, causing migration to urban areas, especially for “small-scale grain producers.” The bottom line: “The region is already vulnerable, and climate change is exacerbating that vulnerability,” says Sardo. “Improving regional resilience could be the tipping point that prevents food insecurity.”

Ayurella Horn-Muller