This research explainer focuses on how El Niño is hampering global and regional economic growth and what climatologists know about how climate change is affecting El Niño patterns. Across the equatorial Pacific Ocean is a strip of water stretching from the coast of South America to the island nations of Southeast Asia, whose temperature is closely monitored by climatologists as a driving force behind global weather patterns. The warm water that settles around Indonesia during early spring typically acts as an atmospheric engine, a source of energy that influences weather around the world for the following year. But every two to seven years, this atmospheric engine shifts gears. When unusually warm water settles off the west coast of Mexico and South America in the spring, the moisture and energy released into the atmosphere can dramatically alter regional weather, from North and South America to Asia and Africa. From mid-November National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters are giving a more than 551% chance of a strong El Niño this winter. The probability is 35% for a historically strong El Niño, like the ones that occurred in 2015-2016 and 1997-1998. The probability is 62% for an El Niño to persist into the spring of 2024. ( from Clark Merrefield)