The European Commission, led by Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, is reviewing ways to achieve the ambitious target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040, while seeking to to ease pressure on industry and agriculture. The Commission plans to present a legislative proposal in the coming weeks, but the detailed conditions are still being worked out.

Finding flexibility in measuring progress

According to sources from meetings with Commission officials, several key options are being discussed that would allow countries to report their progress differently:

• Non-linear emission reduction process: Instead of a steady decline from 55% reduction by 2030 to 90% by 2040, a process would be introduced where the decline would initially proceed more slowly, but would then be followed by a steeper decline in the 2030s.
• International carbon credits: The proposal allows countries to buy carbon credits from projects in other countries, allowing them to engage in emission-reducing projects outside their own territory, which would help meet national targets.
• Dependence on negative emissions: There are plans to rely more heavily on methods of removing CO₂ from the air – whether through afforestation or new carbon capture technologies.
• Sectoral objectives: If some sectors were to have difficulty achieving their targets, it could be allowed to compensate for the gaps with other sectoral improvements.

These proposals should give Member States more flexibility, but there is a risk that overly loose rules could weaken the overall effectiveness of EU climate policy.

Political pressures and internal disputes

While most member states are sticking to the original 90% target for emissions reductions, some governments, particularly those with strong industrial and agricultural sectors, are expressing concerns about the costs of strict measures. For example, Italy is pushing to reduce the ambition of the target to 80 or 85% to protect its industries from the economic hit.

The situation is also complicated by political negotiations in Germany, where the future coalition composition may influence the approach ultimately adopted. EU climate policy is thus facing conflicting demands – on the one hand, pressure from groups supporting stricter environmental measures, on the other hand, those who fear negative impacts on the competitiveness of the European economy.

Global impact and challenges under the Paris Agreement

The final decision on how to approach the 2040 target will have significant global implications. The change in methodology could also affect the national contributions that countries submit under the Paris Agreement. Experts warn that too much flexibility could lead to inconsistency and a reduction in overall ambition in the fight against climate change.

International carbon markets and emissions reduction measures have previously faced problems verifying actual emissions savings, and critics say reopening the door to measurement loopholes could once again undermine investor confidence and slow the technological innovation needed to move towards carbon neutrality.

A look into the future

Climate Commissioner Hoekstra and his team are working to find a compromise between an ambitious target and the need to mitigate the economic impacts of strict climate measures. The resulting legislative proposal will have to take into account not only internal pressures but also international expectations, as the EU plays a key role in the global fight against climate change.

If consensus can be reached, the new legislation could define the direction in which not only European but also global efforts to reduce emissions will develop. However, it remains questionable whether flexibility in measuring progress will not bring more disadvantages than benefits. Spring