This one report deals with updating the analysis of scenarios for the development of greenhouse gas emissions in Slovakia with the aim of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050The “2050 Pathways Explorer” model is used, which allows modeling different emission trajectories in individual sectors national economy. The model takes into account energy conversion and consumption, the associated greenhouse gas emissions, as well as their removals.

Goals and starting points:

• The EU and Slovakia aim to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, which means reducing greenhouse gas production and offsetting remaining emissions.
• This target is binding within the framework of The European Climate Law of 2021.
• The European Green Deal and a package of measures "Fit for 55" are key to reducing emissions by 2030.
• The Slovak Republic has an Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), which was updated in 2023.

Model used:

• Model "2050 Pathways Explorer" is a complex model of energy flows in individual sectors.
• The model was inspired by EUCalc, GlobalCalc and other models computational models.
• Allows testing of different measures, both technological and behavioral.
• It is available online and allows the preparation of new scenarios.
• Model does not include economic analysis.
• It uses data from the Eurostat and IDEES databases, adjusted based on national statistics.
• The model was updated in 2023, with new data and changes in sectors.

Scenarios:

• WEM approx. – scenario with existing measures.
• WAM approx. – scenario with additional measures.
• Zero Emission scenario (ZEM) – a carbon-free scenario that aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.
• EST Behavior – a scenario based on conscious citizen behavior.
• EST Policy – a scenario based on compliance with government measures and policies.
• Ambitious Scenario (AS) – a scenario set to achieve carbon neutrality by 2040.
• EARTH 2024 – a scenario combining environmentally conscious behavior and government measures.

Key findings and measures under the ZEM 2024 scenario:

• Total emissions could fall to -0.42 MtCO2e thanks to changes in behavior and an increased share of renewables.
• Final energy consumption should decrease by 38% compared to 2005 and by 44% compared to 2021.
• Electricity will be the most important energy carrier in 2050.

Sectoral changes:

• Buildings:
  • Emissions should fall to 0.65 MtCO2e by 2050.
  • Insulation, renovations, switching to renewable energy, and more efficient district heating systems are key.
  • Reducing energy demand for heating by 70% compared to 2021 and for hot water by 50%.
  • Electrification of heating, support for heat pumps and solar panels.
  • High rate of building renovation to the NZEB/ZEB standard.
• Transportation:
  • Emissions should fall to 0.11 MtCO2e by 2050.
  • Support for active transport, mass transit and emission-free transport.
  • Transition to electric, biofuels and synthetic fuels.
  • Ending sales of new cars with combustion engines by 2035 (except synthetic fuels).
  • Increasing the share of zero-emission vehicles and biofuels.
  • Improving energy efficiency, implementing CO2 standards for vehicles.
• Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU):
  • Emissions should fall to 1.25 MtCO2e.
  • Reducing meat consumption, food waste and the use of artificial fertilizers.
  • Afforestation, forest restoration and promotion of sustainable practices.
  • Emission capture could reach up to 5.9 MtCO2e in 2050.
  • Using bioenergy with BECCS technology.
• Industry:
  • Emissions should fall to 3.16 MtCO2e.
  • Improving energy efficiency and implementing circular economy principles.
  • Introduction of green hydrogen in the steel industry and geopolymers in the cement industry.
  • CCUS and DAC technologies for carbon capture and storage.
  • Support for energy-efficient and emission-friendly technologies.
• Energy:
  • Emissions could fall to -0.211 MtCO2e.
  • Increasing the capacity of renewable energy (solar, wind, geothermal) and nuclear energy.
  • End of operation of coal-fired power plants.
  • The increase in electricity demand (by 80%) will be offset by an increase in RES and nuclear power.
  • The growing importance of energy communities and installation of small sources.

Conclusion and recommendations:

• The report highlights the need for ambitious measures and cooperation all stakeholders.
• It is necessary increase efforts to achieve carbon neutrality, involve government, businesses and households.
• It is necessary comprehensive analysis of socio-economic consequences transition to a low-carbon economy.

Methodology:

• The “2050 Pathways Explorer” model is a comprehensive model that links demand for energy, materials, land and food to emissions.
• The model uses data from Eurostat and IDEES.
• It is based on levers that allow testing of different scenarios.
• The model is alive and constantly evolving.

This report provides a detailed look at Slovakia's paths to carbon neutrality, with an emphasis on changes in behavior, energy, transport, industry, and agriculture. Spring

Glossary of Key Terms

• Carbon neutrality: A state where total greenhouse gas emissions are balanced by their capture, thereby eliminating the impact on climate change.
• Greenhouse gases: Gases in the atmosphere that trap heat and contribute to global warming, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O).
• IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN scientific body assessing the state of climate change.
• Paris Agreement: An international agreement on climate change that aims to limit the rise in global temperatures.
• European Green Deal: The European Union's strategy to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.
• Fit for 55: A package of EU measures to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55 % by 2030 compared to 1990.
• NECP (Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan): A strategic document that sets out Slovakia's energy and climate goals until 2030.
• NUS (Low Carbon Development Strategy of the Slovak Republic): Slovakia's Strategy for Achieving Low-Carbon Development by 2030 with a View to 2050.
• RES (Renewable Energy Sources): Energy sources that are naturally renewable, such as solar energy, wind energy, geothermal energy and biomass energy.
• BECCS (Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage): Biomass energy production technology with carbon capture and storage.
• CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage): Technology for capturing and storing carbon, thereby reducing its concentration in the atmosphere.
• AFOLU: Agriculture, forestry and other land use sector.
• NZEB: Nearly zero energy buildings.
• ZEB: Zero emission buildings.
• District heating: Central heat supply.
• WEM: Scenario with existing measures.
• WAM: Scenario with additional measures.
• EARTH: Carbon-free scenario (zero emission measures).
• MtCO2e: One million tons of CO2 equivalent.
• "Levers": Variables in the "2050 Pathways Explorer" model that set the main factors affecting energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.