Projections of a sea ice-free Arctic have so far focused on average monthly ice-free conditions. Here, we provide the first projections of when we might see the first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean, using daily output from multiple CMIP6 models. We find that there is a large range in the predicted first ice-free day, from 3 years from the model-equivalent state in 2023 to no ice-free day before the end of the simulations in 2100, depending on the model and forcing scenario used. Using a narrative approach, we then focus on nine simulations where the first ice-free day occurs within 3 to 6 years, i.e. potentially before 2030, to understand what could cause such an unlikely but very impressive transition to the first ice-free day. day. We find that all of these early ice-free days occur during rapid ice loss and are associated with strong winter and spring warming. (Céline Heuzé & Alexandra Jahnová, more at nature.com)