Record heatwaves and droughts that are hurting European farmers, energy companies and insurers are forecasting even faster climate change on the continent, with scientists warning that feedback from a drying Earth is likely to lead to dangerously high temperatures again this year.

The European Union’s latest climate assessment, released Thursday by its Copernicus Climate Change Service, shows how scientists and policymakers are preparing to adapt to life on a warmer planet. The bloc is spending billions of euros on new space-based Earth-observing missions aimed at helping its economy of 450 million people brace for shrinking arable land, falling water levels and more fires. Hot, dry weather means reduced harvests, exacerbating food insecurity, and river levels are so low they are complicating transport and forcing power plants to shut down. France is already implementing so-called sobriety measures, while the European Commission is also considering more ways to preserve suddenly scarce water resources. “We are really moving into uncharted territory, where our collective experience will be less useful than it was a few decades ago,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus program. The Copernicus programme uses billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world for its monthly and seasonal forecasts. Together with the European Space Agency, Copernicus plays a central role in the EU’s €16 billion effort to tackle climate change through accurate forecasts. It is already the world’s largest provider of climate data. But while better forecasts can help farmers choose to plant drought-tolerant crop varieties or engineers plan better irrigation, they do not dull the economic pain of climate change when it hits. Record-breaking summer temperatures – 1.4 degrees Celsius above the historical average – decimated crops in France and central Europe last year. Climate-related losses have soared to an estimated $270 billion worldwide. Drought is currently drying up crops and delaying plantings for some of Europe’s leading growers, threatening to further fuel food inflation. “We have already seen several reports of water shortages in Mediterranean countries,” said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus. “Unless we have significant spring rainfall, the likelihood of below-average water availability is likely to continue.” European rivers experienced below-average flows for the sixth consecutive year in 2022, leading to the “driest year on record” in the geographical scope, according to Copernicus. Low water levels are complicating freight transport on river routes that contribute €80 billion to EU economies. Dry riverbeds have forced hydro and nuclear power plants to cut back on electricity generation, helping to push electricity prices to record highs. “We really need to look at how we can put in place adaptation policies at this point,” said Mauro Facchini, who oversees the Copernicus programme at the European Commission. The signs are worrying, say European researchers using Copernicus data. A warmer, drier environment is dramatically reducing soil moisture, with serious implications for future crop production in places like southern Europe, which could lose large areas of arable land by 2050, according to a study to be presented to the European Geosciences Union next week. Last year’s total moisture was the second lowest in half a century, Copernicus calculated. “A few years ago, I would never have imagined that water would be a problem here in Europe, especially in Germany or Austria,” said Torsten Mayer-Guerr, an Austrian researcher who studies the Earth’s water mass. The data, suggesting that water scarcity could become the new normal, has led scientists to focus more on how this resource circulates around the Earth. It’s not just less rain — Copernicus estimates it fell by 10 % last year — that’s the problem, but also the loss of Alpine snow cover and rapidly shrinking glaciers. In short, the reduced flow into Europe’s lakes and seas increases environmental risks by raising water temperatures and damaging ecosystems. And then there’s the higher likelihood of wildfires, which last year burned through a European country three times the size of Luxembourg. “There’s a feedback loop,” Buontempo said. “Dry conditions may have contributed to extremely high temperatures in turn. Another consequence of the dry conditions has been the spread and intensification of wildfires.” Copernicus, ESA and NASA are developing new missions to better understand Earth’s water cycle. One – codenamed MAGIC – plans to launch a pair of satellites 500 kilometers into orbit, where they will be able to measure small variations in water supplies. “We know that having data available in near real time is important for decision-making,” Burgess said, noting that the food, energy and insurance industries already use Copernicus data. Copernicus reported at least one silver lining in Europe's fight against global warming: 2022 brought stronger solar radiation, leading to above-average photovoltaic power generation. Installing more emission-free energy sources remains the world's best bet this century to keep temperature increases below 1.5°C. (Jonathan Tirone)