A new study has shown that limiting global warming to 2°C could prevent more than 80 percent of projected heat-related deaths in the Middle East and North Africa by the end of the century. The study, published in The Lancet Planetary Health on Monday, says the Middle East and North Africa region, collectively known as MENA, is one of the most climate-vulnerable regions in the world, with maximum temperatures projected to reach nearly 50°C by the end of the century. The study found that under high-emissions scenarios, the annual number of heat-related deaths in MENA could rise to 123 per 100,000 population by 2081-2100. This is about 60 times higher than current data and higher than projections under similar scenarios worldwide. But if global warming is limited to 2C, the ultimate goal countries agreed to in the 2015 Paris Agreement, more than 80 percent of these deaths could be avoided. The world has already warmed by 1.2°C and is expected to soon exceed 1.5°C, the more ideal Paris Agreement goal for limiting warming as greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. The study modeled current and future trends in heat-related mortality in 19 countries in the MENA region, including changes in potential greenhouse gas emissions over time and different socio-economic scenarios.

Stuti Mishra