The European Commission plans to present a proposal today that would allow the EU to 2040 reached reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by 90 % compared to levels from 2018 1990 – what would be in line with the ambition to achieve climate neutrality by the year 2050The move is set to be unveiled on Wednesday during the current hot summer, which is evidence of rapidly deteriorating climate conditions in Europe.

⚖️ Compromise: International carbon credits (up to 3 %)

This version of the target takes into account pressure from several EU members – in particular Germany, France, Italy, Poland and the Czech Republic – who demand a reduction in the costs of the decarbonisation transition. Therefore, the proposal allows:

• Count up to 3 % from the total change in emissions through international carbon credits from the UN market (projects such as reforestation in Brazil).
• Credit usage will begin from 2036.
• They will be introduced strict conditions – high quality, specific origin and quality verification of emission reductions.

🔧 Further flexibility: carbon sequestration levies

The proposal also allows for the inclusion of CO₂ removal credits, i.e. emission credits for carbon capture technologies (e.g. CCS). States also have greater freedom to decide, which sectors (e.g. transport, industry) should do the most to achieve the goal.

✅ Advantages of this strategy

1. A more financially sustainable transition — will help countries with high costs of domestic decarbonisation.
2. Support for developing countries – finances environmental projects during the EU transition.
3. Time space – credits will only be activated after the start of the massive transformation (from 2036).

⚠️ Risks and criticism

• Insufficient pressure on domestic emissions – credits can allow for "redemption" instead of investment in the EU.
• Questionable credit quality – past frauds have shown that not all projects actually delivered aid.
• Environmental groups and scientists warn that up to 3 % is not negligible and can weaken the EU's internal transformation.

🛑 Warning from Brazil and EU experts

COP30 Brazil leader Ana Toni warned that overreliance on international credits could reduce effectiveness of domestic solutions to the emission challengeEU scientific advisers also stress that the promotion of green technologies within the EU could suffer.

🧭 Approval process and timeline

• The proposal will be submitted today July 2, 2025.
• Will pass negotiations between EU Member States and the European Parliament, with the deadline for the final proposal being mid-September – given by the UN for approving the 2035 goal at COP30.

🧷 Summary

• The EU remains committed to its ambition – -90 % emissions by 2040.
• However, it adds the option credits (up to 3 %) and CO₂ removal creditsto reduce costs and fulfill plans more comprehensively.
• This approach brings a more affordable path for countries with decade-long challenges, but poses a risk to the internal sustainability of the projects involved.
• The final decision will be made during the summer, with circumstances that may shape global climate diplomacy ahead of COP30. Spring