Rapidly increasing likelihood of exceeding 45-50°C and heat-related deaths in Mediterranean and Middle East

With climate change, the likelihood of extremely hot days associated with excess mortality is rapidly increasing. In parts of the Mediterranean and the Middle East, temperatures above 45-50°C are more likely than in pre-industrial times and could occur every year in warmer regions by the end of the century. The region may face several more weeks of heat-related fatality risks by 2100, underscoring the need for effective adaptation planning.

According to recent study published in Nature Climate and Atmospheric Science in the hottest of the 12 selected sites in the Mediterranean and Middle East, maximum daily temperatures above 50°C are 10 to 1000 times more likely than in pre-industrial times, and by the end of the century such extremes could occur every year in warmer sites due to human influence . Even in colder areas in regions like Spain and Turkey, temperatures are above 45 °C increasingly common and by the year 2100 they could occur at least once a decade in places where they would rarely occur in nature. Extreme  high temperatures they cause heat stress a can lead to excess mortalityreduced mental health and increased risks for several vulnerable groups. All selected locations in the region may experience an additional 30 to 60 days of excess heat deaths by 2100, due to temperature increases alone. The probabilities are estimated by of the medium emissions scenario, which takes into account global adaptation and mitigation efforts (SSP2 4.5) . The increasing risk of population exposure to unprecedented temperatures calls for urgent measures and socio-economic resilience measures to ensure that high-risk areas remain livable and safe for workers.

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