The probability that global temperature increases will remain within offset levels has fallen sharply over the past three years. A new assessment led by British and Irish scientists shows that all key measures of climate change have worsened rapidly. Average human-caused warming over the past decade has been 1.14 degrees, inching ever closer to the 1.5 degree limit scientists have warned must not be exceeded. Record levels of greenhouse gas emissions are still being released, reaching 54 billion tons per year. The residual carbon budget – the maximum emissions left to maintain at least a 50% chance of keeping temperature rise to 1.5 degrees – has been halved in three years. (Caroline O'Doherty)

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