Severe droughts, characterized by unusually rapid drying, can have a significant impact on many socio-economic sectors, especially agriculture. However, the potential changes in flash drought risk in a warming climate remain unknown. This study quantifies projected changes in flash drought frequency and the risk to agricultural land from flash drought using global climate model simulations. We find that the occurrence of flash drought is projected to increase globally across all scenarios, with the steepest increases observed in scenarios with higher radiative forcing and greater fossil fuel use. The risk of rapid cropland drought is expected to increase globally, with the largest increases projected in North America (annual risk change from 32 % in 2015 to 49 % in 2100) and Europe (32 % to 53 %) under the most extreme emissions scenario. (Jordan I. Christian et al., NATURE)

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