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A new study found that the change in heat, which in April hit western Europe and northwest Africa with at least a 100-fold higher probability of occurrence.
Why it matters: A study from the World Weather Attribution Initiative concludes that without human-caused warming, this heat wave would have been "almost impossible." Its findings are based on peer-reviewed, published methods, but the new research itself has not yet been peer-reviewed.
- This is one of a number of studies that have reached similar conclusions about extreme heat.
- Separately, other scientists also reached these conclusions about Japan's 2018 record hot summer and 2018 Northern Hemisphere heat waves.
Zoom in: The heat wave comes at a time when the region is baking strong multi-year drought, while reservoirs are extremely low in Spain and crops are affected.
- A heat wave of this magnitude in the region is now about a 1-in-400-year event, a new study has found.
- In other words, such a heat wave has about a 0.25 % probability of occurring in any given year.
- The study concluded that human-caused climate change has made a heat wave at least 100 times more likely, warning that this is likely a conservative estimate.
- It also found that climate change made the heat wave much more severe, with temperatures rising by as much as 3.5 °C (6.3 °F) during the peak event compared to the world without the added amount of heat-trapping greenhouse gases.
