The National Weather Service issued an El Niño warning Thursday as scientists see the first signs of the climate phenomenon known to raise global temperatures and predict it is more likely to arrive in the coming months. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-normal surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which affects weather patterns around the world. Already, signs of the pattern are emerging: Scientists say waters off the west coast of South America have warmed rapidly, which could „predict changes across the entire Pacific basin,“ the service said. Their confidence in El Niño’s development is growing despite the known limits to the accuracy of climate forecasts at this time of year. They say El Niño could arrive as early as next month, with an estimated 62 percent chance of developing sometime between May and July. And the conditions are leading them to predict a 40 percent chance that waters will warm enough for a „strong“ El Niño to develop later in the year. The last time this happened was in 2016, when global temperatures soared to record highs and helped trigger rainforest loss, coral bleaching, melting polar ice and wildfires.

 Scott Dance