New research assesses how future warming of the Southern Ocean around West Antarctica could affect the Ross Gyre, a major ocean circulation in the region. Using simulations from the United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM1), the researchers predict “rapid warming of the Amundsen Sea driven by Ross Gyre expansion that is independent of the driving scenario.” This “will increase continental shelf temperatures in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas by more than 1°C in just ∼30 years,” the paper says. The results suggest that Ross Gyre expansion could provide a mechanism by which ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas could “increase well beyond current levels.” The authors conclude: “If such warming were to occur in reality, it would have significant implications for the future stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.”

Geophysical Research Letters