Rising temperatures threaten climate targets

Global temperatures have risen above 1.5°C for the first time in a year, posing a risk to international commitments under the Paris Agreement. According to data from the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change services, this is a historic moment. This rise in temperatures raises concerns about meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep global warming well below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels.

A climatologist from the Center of Excellence for Climate Extremes stressed that while these temperatures do not mean an immediate breach of the Paris Agreement, they do mean we are approaching a dangerous situation. "Exceeding 1.5°C over the past year is not the end of the Paris Agreement, but a serious warning. We have to act and solve this problem," he said.

Although 1.5°C is not a binding limit agreed in Paris, the climatologist explained that limiting global warming to close to this value is essential to mitigate the most severe consequences of climate change. “The risks associated with extreme weather, sea level rise, loss of biodiversity and disruption of ecosystems and societies are significantly higher in a 2°C world than in a 1.5°C world. Our ability to adapt to climate change will significantly deteriorate at temperatures above 2°C," he added.

According to him, the temperature of the atmosphere is a key factor in extreme weather events, as a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor, leading to heavier rainfall, tropical cyclones and intense storms. "With each increase in temperature, the likelihood of reaching climate change tipping points also increases."

He explained that the long-term increase in temperatures is the result of the burning of fossil fuels, which has caused temperature ratings to rise over the past decades. "Additionally, the natural phenomenon of El Niño, which manifests itself as an increase in ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, has contributed to further increases in global temperatures."

From July 2023 to June 2024, the world registered record temperatures that reached up to 1.64 °C above the pre-industrial average. "If we continue to burn fossil fuels, we are likely to experience more and more years with temperatures above 1.5°C and gradually approach average warming exceeding this threshold," he warned.

"There is a need to increase our efforts to ensure that we do not cross this critical threshold. This can only be achieved by drastically reducing emissions. We must aim to achieve carbon neutrality if we want to keep global warming below 1.5°C.” (Co2AI)