COP29, often referred to as the “finance COP”, took place in 2024 and its main focus was on creating and agreeing on climate finance mechanisms. The two main outcomes of this conference are:
1. Agreement on a new collective quantified target on finance (NCQG)
2. Launching an international carbon trading system under the supervision of the UN under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement
Climate finance agreement
COP29 was the culmination of three years of negotiations on the NCQG. The agreed target sets the foundation for climate finance beyond 2025. A key decision is to triple the annual financing target from the current $100 billion to $300 billion by 2035. Developed countries will take the lead in mobilizing the necessary resources. A target of $1.3 trillion per year for developing countries by 2035 is also included, but this target is not legally binding.
Many developing countries are rejecting more debt for climate action, instead demanding grants and concessional loans. For the first time, voluntary contributions from developing countries are being formally recognized, opening the door for countries like China to take a more active role in UN climate negotiations.
Making carbon markets operational
After nine years of negotiations, parties at COP29 agreed on rules for an international carbon trading system under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The system allows countries to trade credits for reducing emissions, which is intended to incentivize investment in emission reduction projects and promote sustainable development.
The agreement stipulates that countries can start developing their national carbon markets and facilitate international trading. The carbon market should be an effective tool to persuade countries to reduce emissions and promote sustainable development.
Successes and failures of COP29
The conference was judged on four criteria: NCQG, new and ambitious NDCs, agreement on Article 6, and loss and damage.
1. A new collective quantified target in the field of finance
– The NCQG agreement is considered a relative success, although it only “calls” on countries to meet the $1.3 trillion target and imposes obligations for only partial mobilisation of finance.
2. New and ambitious NDCs
– Several countries, including Brazil, the United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom, announced new NDCs during the conference, putting pressure on other countries. However, the failure of the Global Stocktaking (GST) negotiations remains a challenge.
3. Agreement on Article 6
– The agreement reached on carbon markets was considered one of the main achievements of COP29.
4. Loss and damage
– Little progress has been made on the issue of compensation for losses and damages, which is likely to be a source of conflict in future negotiations.
5. Blocking negotiations
– Despite agreements on key issues of NCQG and Article 6, other negotiations such as GST outcomes and financial issues have been postponed.
Outlook for COP30
Brazil will host COP30 in November 2025, where several key developments are expected:
1. NDC
– Countries are due to submit new NDCs by the end of February 2025. These represent a plan for how countries will contribute to climate goals.
2. Climate finance
– The “Roadmap from Baku to Belém” will identify concrete steps to achieve the $1.3 trillion goal.
3. Article 6
– The first year of operation of the carbon market under Article 6 is expected to bring key lessons and testing of the new rules.
4. Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice
– The opinion will provide guidance on the obligations of states in relation to climate change.
5. Reform of multilateral development banks
– The need for reform to ensure more effective climate finance.
6. COP30 organization
– Brazil is trying to use the rainforest symbolism of Belem to focus on diplomatic cooperation. Calls for more ambitious NDCs are likely to be launched at the upcoming COP. Co2AI