{"id":38534,"date":"2026-01-13T14:13:24","date_gmt":"2026-01-13T13:13:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/?p=38534"},"modified":"2026-01-13T14:14:25","modified_gmt":"2026-01-13T13:14:25","slug":"expected-parameters-of-sustainable-growth-until-2050","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/2026\/01\/13\/expected-parameters-of-sustainable-growth-until-2050\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected parameters of sustainable growth by 2050"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sustainability is no longer a marginal environmental topic. By the mid-21st century, it is becoming the main framework for economic growth, investment and competitiveness<\/strong>. The question is therefore not, whether<\/em> should be the economy sustainable, but What proportion of sustainable activities must make up the economy?<\/strong>, to make growth possible, stable and resilient to climate and systemic risks in the long term.<\/p>\n

Based on EU strategies, IEA, IPCC and financial institutions' scenarios, four key parameters can be identified that define sustainable economic growth by 2050.<\/p>\n

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1. Share of the green economy in GDP<\/h5>\n

The green economy \u2013 i.e. the production of environmental goods and services \u2013 today represents approximately 2.5 % GDP<\/strong>. These are mainly the sectors of renewable energy sources, energy efficiency, waste management and environmental services.<\/p>\n

However, by 2050 it is expected fundamental structural transformation<\/strong>. Implementation of the European Green Deal, the package Fit for 55<\/em> and principles of the circular economy has the potential to significantly increase the economic importance of green sectors. By 2030, the circular economy could add approximately 0.5 % GDP<\/strong>, while in the long term, low-carbon and environmentally compatible industries are expected to become an integral part of most economic activities<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

International Energy Agency (IEA) scenarios suggest that by 2050, almost 90 % of electricity production to come from renewable sources<\/strong>, which indirectly means a significant increase in the share of the green economy in total economic output. There is no single official target in percentage of GDP, but the trend is clear: the green economy is becoming a marginal sector a new core of growth<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

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2. Share of investments in climate solutions (green CAPEX)<\/h5>\n

Transforming the economy requires unprecedented levels of investment. In the period 2011-2020, around 5.1 % GDP per year<\/strong>. However, to meet the target of reducing emissions by 55 % by 2030, investments need to be increased by a further 3.2 % GDP per year<\/strong>, which represents an overall level of around 8 % GDP per year<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

The European Investment Bank estimates that the energy transition itself will require 2.5 \u2013 3 % GDP per year until 2050<\/strong>. Most of these investments will go into:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n

    buildings, industry and transport (60 \u2013 65 %),<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    energy infrastructure and renewable sources (35 \u2013 40 %).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    IEA global scenarios assume that net energy investment will reach 100% by the early 2030s. triple<\/strong>, with the public sector playing a catalytic role and the majority of capital coming from private sources.<\/p>\n

    Special attention is also required Nature-based Solutions<\/strong>. According to UNEP, global investment in these solutions needs to be increased to approximately $536 billion per year by 2050<\/strong>, so that ecosystems can fulfill their stabilizing and adaptive function.<\/p>\n

    \n
    3. Decarbonization of the economy as a condition for growth<\/h5>\n

    The European Union has a legally enshrined goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050<\/strong>, which means practically 100 % reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions<\/strong>. The intermediate stage is to reduce emissions by approximately 90 % by 2040<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

    According to the IEA and IPCC scenarios, this target is necessary to keep global warming close to 1.5\u00b0C. In such scenarios:<\/p>\n

      \n
    • \n

      coal consumption drops to almost zero,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      oil consumption decreases by approximately 75 %,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      natural gas consumption by more than 50 %.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      At the same time, it is dramatically decreasing GDP emission intensity<\/strong>, which means that economic growth must be completely decoupled from emissions growth. By 2050, clean energy should account for approximately 50 % of total final energy consumption<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

      Decarbonization thus does not become a brake on growth, but a basic condition for its sustainability<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

      \n
      4. Share of economic activities in accordance with the EU taxonomy<\/h5>\n

      The EU taxonomy defines which economic activities are environmentally sustainable and compatible with the goal of climate neutrality by 2050. It covers sectors responsible for approximately 93 % of EU emissions<\/strong>, including energy, industry, transport, buildings and agriculture.<\/p>\n

      Current data from the first years of reporting show that taxonomy-aligned company turnover is only at the level of a few percent so far<\/strong>. For example, financial institutions report on average approximately 2 \u2013 3 % taxonomy-aligned turnover<\/strong>. However, this low proportion does not reflect the final goal, but the initial phase of the transformation.<\/p>\n

      The EU's long-term goal is to most economic activities have become compatible with the taxonomy<\/strong>, either directly (as sustainable activities) or indirectly (as transitional activities supporting decarbonization). By 2050, virtually the entire economy should be aligned with the planet's climate and environmental limits.<\/p>\n

      \n

      Sustainability as a new framework for growth<\/h2>\n

      If economic growth is to be stable, competitive and socially sustainable by 2050, sustainability must form its dominant component<\/strong>. It is not a single sector or a separate policy, but a new economic model<\/strong>, in which:<\/p>\n

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      • \n

        investments in climate and adaptation amount to several percent of GDP annually,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        emissions are falling to zero,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        green and taxonomy-compatible activities are penetrating all sectors,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        Natural capital is protected as economic infrastructure.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        By 2050, sustainability will not become an \u201eadd-on\u201c to economic growth, but its basic supporting pillar<\/strong>. JRi<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Udr\u017eate\u013enos\u0165 u\u017e nie je okrajovou environment\u00e1lnou t\u00e9mou. Do polovice 21. storo\u010dia sa st\u00e1va hlavn\u00fdm r\u00e1mcom hospod\u00e1rskeho rastu, invest\u00edci\u00ed a konkurencieschopnosti. Ot\u00e1zka preto neznie, \u010di m\u00e1 by\u0165 hospod\u00e1rstvo<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-udrzatelnost_uhlikova-neutralita"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38534","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38534"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38534\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38537,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38534\/revisions\/38537"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38534"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38534"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38534"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}