{"id":38076,"date":"2025-10-27T19:04:03","date_gmt":"2025-10-27T18:04:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/?p=38076"},"modified":"2025-10-27T19:04:49","modified_gmt":"2025-10-27T18:04:49","slug":"scenario-2040-a-comprehensive-analysis-of-the-future-paths-of-the-eus-common-agricultural-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/2025\/10\/27\/scenario-2040-a-comprehensive-analysis-of-the-future-paths-of-the-eus-common-agricultural-policy\/","title":{"rendered":"Scenario 2040: A comprehensive analysis of the future paths of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy"},"content":{"rendered":"

Study Scenario 2040<\/strong><\/span><\/a> The European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential impacts of broad \u201cwhat if\u201d scenarios<\/strong> related to the Common Agricultural Policy policy (CAP) on the EU agricultural sector and its wider environment. The aim of this work is to enrich political discussions<\/strong> on the future of the CAP by providing quantitative knowledge<\/strong> on the general implications of alternative CAP trajectories. The analysis is based on the EU Agricultural Outlook 2023 and the current structure of the national CAP strategic plans. The methodology uses a combination of three agri-economic simulation models, including MAGNET, CAPRI and IFM-CAP.<\/p>\n

The study models three main scenarios to examine changes in support:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. "Productivity and Investment" (Prod&Inv):<\/strong> Directs support to increasing productivity and competitiveness<\/strong>.<\/li>\n
  2. "Environment and Climate" (Env&Clim):<\/strong> Redirects support to interventions focused more on the environment and climate<\/strong>.<\/li>\n
  3. Counterfactual NoCAP scenario:<\/strong> Simulates abolition of the entire CAP framework<\/strong> including payments and Good Agricultural and Environmental Condition (GAEC) standards. While NoCAP is not a realistic policy trajectory, it provides a useful reference point for assessing economic, social and environmental impacts.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    The essential role of the CAP and the NoCAP scenario<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Study results underline the essential role of the CAP<\/strong> in the EU agricultural sector and its wider socio-economic and environmental links. The NoCAP scenario suggests that abolishing the CAP would lead to significant economic, environmental and social impact<\/strong>, with significant heterogeneity between farms, regions and sectors. Farm incomes would drop significantly<\/strong>, which would disproportionately affect smaller farms (which experience the largest relative decline in income). Overall EU agricultural production would be significantly reduced and Utilized agricultural area (UAA) would decrease<\/strong>Consumer prices would rise, which would increased the share of household spending on food<\/strong>From an environmental perspective, although greenhouse gas emissions from EU agriculture are decreasing due to a decline in production, emissions leaks<\/strong> (relocation of production outside the EU) would lead to net global increase in emissions<\/strong> by 8.2 MtCO2e.<\/p>\n

    Contrasting trajectories and structural trade-offs<\/strong><\/p>\n

    The two alternative CAP scenarios reveal contrasting outcomes in line with their respective narratives.<\/p>\n

    Prod&Inv Scenario<\/strong> leads to higher competitiveness and production<\/strong>, driven by higher investments and better returns. This increases self-sufficiency and improves the EU's trade balance<\/strong>However, this expansion can intensify environmental pressures<\/strong>, which will be reflected in a slight increase in nitrogen surpluses and EU greenhouse gas emissions. Despite EU emissions increasing, net global greenhouse gas emissions are falling<\/strong>because more emission-efficient EU production replaces less efficient production outside the EU (emission leakage is beneficial).<\/p>\n

    On the contrary, Env&Clim scenario<\/strong> puts greater emphasis on environmental sustainability<\/strong>, which results in lower productivity, reduced production levels in the EU and higher prices<\/strong>Although this scenario achieves environmental improvements in the EU<\/strong> (e.g. lower GHG emissions and reduced nitrogen surpluses), may increase global challenges as emissions leaks<\/strong> again lead to higher GHG emissions from agriculture outside the EU. Stronger support for more extensive agricultural practices in this scenario leads to increasing crop diversity<\/strong> and reduces high-intensity agriculture.<\/p>\n

    These findings illustrate critical structural trade-offs between intensification and extensification<\/strong>While policy measures can significantly influence price and production dynamics, especially in sectors with longer production cycles or higher direct support, basic market factors<\/strong> (such as elasticity of demand and efficiency of production) remain primary determinants of production results<\/strong>The JRC therefore stresses the need for revised policy proposal<\/strong>, which effectively addresses diverse needs within the EU and takes into account wider global implications. JRi<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    The European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) Scenario 2040 study provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential impacts of broad "what-if" scenarios related to the Common Agricultural Policy.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-lca_esg_ghg_csddd_csrd_iso_flr"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38076","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38076"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38076\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38076"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38076"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38076"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}