{"id":37178,"date":"2025-08-04T11:32:39","date_gmt":"2025-08-04T09:32:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/?p=37178"},"modified":"2025-08-04T11:33:27","modified_gmt":"2025-08-04T09:33:27","slug":"we-can-grow-and-save-the-climate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/2025\/08\/04\/we-can-grow-and-save-the-climate\/","title":{"rendered":"Can we grow and still save the climate?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In order to <strong data-start=\"7\" data-end=\"66\">stopped increasing greenhouse gas emissions annually<\/strong>, must be achieved <strong data-start=\"86\" data-end=\"138\">absolute decoupling of emissions from economic growth<\/strong> \u2014 i.e. GDP can grow, but total emissions must fall or remain the same. Below<!--more--> I bring <strong data-start=\"231\" data-end=\"305\">analysis based on the decomposition of emission growth through the so-called Kaya Identity<\/strong>, with emphasis on <strong data-start=\"320\" data-end=\"348\">EU and global average<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Why is every climate conference about GDP, emissions, and &quot;green growth&quot;?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>At a time when the planet faces increasing manifestations of the climate crisis, we often hear two seemingly contradictory demands:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>We need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions<\/strong>to slow down warming.<\/li>\n<li><strong>We need to continue economic growth<\/strong>so that people have jobs, states have income, and companies have innovation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>But\u2026 <strong>is it possible to have both?<\/strong><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h5>\ud83d\udd25 Climate goals: what does the science say?<\/h5>\n<p>The goal of the Paris Agreement is clear: <strong>keep global warming below 1.5\u00b0C<\/strong>, a maximum of 2 \u00b0C compared to the pre-industrial era. To achieve this, according to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), we must:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>reduce global CO\u2082 emissions by 43 % by 2030<\/strong> (compared to 2019),<\/li>\n<li><strong>to reach zero emissions by 2050.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This means: <strong>Every year, CO\u2082 emissions must fall by approximately 7\u201310 %.<\/strong><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h5>\ud83d\udcc8 Problem: Emissions are still rising<\/h5>\n<p>The world economy is growing \u2013 on average over the last decade <strong>about 3 % per year<\/strong>.<br \/>\nBut at the same time they are also growing <strong>greenhouse gas emissions<\/strong> \u2013 in 2023 they were the highest in history.<\/p>\n<p>So:<br \/>\n<strong>More production, more consumption = more emissions.<\/strong><br \/>\nIf we want to continue growing, something fundamentally has to change.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h5>\ud83d\udca1 Can GDP grow but emissions decrease?<\/h5>\n<p>Theoretically yes. That&#039;s what they call it. <strong>absolute decoupling of growth from emissions<\/strong>This means that the economy is growing, but CO\u2082 emissions are not \u2013 or are even falling.<\/p>\n<p>This can only be achieved if:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>we consume less energy per unit of economic output<\/strong> (so-called energy efficiency),<\/li>\n<li><strong>and we produce that energy from cleaner sources<\/strong> (renewable resources, excluding coal, oil and gas).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h5>\ud83c\uddea\ud83c\uddfa How is the European Union doing?<\/h5>\n<p><strong>The EU is one of the few regions where the economy is already growing and emissions are falling.<\/strong><br \/>\nFor example:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>EU GDP grew by more than 60% between 1990 and 2023,<\/li>\n<li>Emissions fell by over 30% over the same period.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This means that the EU is already <strong>absolute decoupling of growth from emissions<\/strong> \u2013 thanks to strict regulations, renewable resources and changes in the industry.<\/p>\n<p>BUT:<br \/>\n\u27a1\ufe0f This pace is not enough to meet the 1.5\u00b0C target.<br \/>\nAnd what&#039;s more - the rest of the world is growing faster and less &quot;cleanly&quot; so far.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h5>\ud83c\udf0d <strong>What about the rest of the world?<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>In the world it is more complicated:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Global GDP is growing by 3.1% per year<\/strong>,<\/li>\n<li>But technological changes only reduce emissions by <strong>1.5 % per year<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This means:<br \/>\n\u27a1\ufe0f <strong>Emissions are still growing by about 1.5 % per year.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>To stop this, the world would have to:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Either <strong>slow down economic growth<\/strong> in half (which would have social consequences),<\/li>\n<li>Or <strong>massively accelerate the transition to renewables and energy savings.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h5>\ud83d\udcc9 Specific numbers: what would we have to achieve?<\/h5>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Scenario<\/th>\n<th>Annual GDP growth<\/th>\n<th>Necessary emission reduction per unit of GDP<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Current status<\/td>\n<td>+3 %<\/td>\n<td>only \u20131.5 % per year \u2192 <strong>emissions are still rising<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Goal: no growth in emissions<\/td>\n<td>+3 %<\/td>\n<td>we need to reduce emissions by <strong>\u20133 % per year<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Target: 1.5\u00b0C<\/td>\n<td>+3 %<\/td>\n<td>we need to reduce emissions by <strong>\u20137 to \u201310 % per year<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>\u27a1\ufe0f This can only be done with a quick transition to <strong>clean energy<\/strong>, <strong>green technologies<\/strong>, <strong>change in consumption and behavior<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h5>\ud83e\udded What does this mean for us?<\/h5>\n<p>Economic growth is not a problem in itself.<br \/>\n<strong>The problem is if it grows in a way that increases emissions.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>If we want:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>reduce emissions,<\/li>\n<li>achieve climate goals,<\/li>\n<li>and at the same time live with dignity,<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>we need:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>investments in <strong>renewable energy<\/strong>,<\/li>\n<li><strong>green infrastructure<\/strong>,<\/li>\n<li><strong>lower consumption of disposable products<\/strong>,<\/li>\n<li>and fair distribution of resources.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h5>\ud83d\udfe2 Conclusion: is &quot;green growth&quot; real?<\/h5>\n<p>Yes \u2013 but only <strong>under very strict conditions<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<p>\u2705 When growth does not increase the consumption of coal, oil and gas.<br \/>\n\u2705 When economic activity relies on low-carbon technologies.<br \/>\n\u2705 When profit is not superior to long-term sustainability.<\/p>\n<p>Green growth is possible \u2013 but <strong>not automatic<\/strong>. Needs <strong>planning, political courage and social change<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The article was prepared by our CO2AI, <em><strong>JRi<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>To stop greenhouse gas emissions from increasing year by year, absolute decoupling of emissions from economic growth must be achieved \u2014 i.e. GDP can grow, but total emissions must fall or remain the same. Below<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37178","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-udrzatelnost_uhlikova-neutralita"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37178","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37178"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37178\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37178"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37178"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37178"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}