{"id":36365,"date":"2025-06-26T08:26:08","date_gmt":"2025-06-26T06:26:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/?p=36365"},"modified":"2025-06-26T08:26:45","modified_gmt":"2025-06-26T06:26:45","slug":"from-2027-gasoline-and-diesel-prices-will-increase-the-new-ets2-system-will-increase-fuel-prices-in-the-eu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/2025\/06\/26\/from-2027-gasoline-and-diesel-prices-will-increase-the-new-ets2-system-will-increase-fuel-prices-in-the-eu\/","title":{"rendered":"Petrol and diesel prices to rise from 2027 \u2013 new ETS2 system will increase fuel prices in the EU"},"content":{"rendered":"

From 2027, car owners across the EU must prepare for significantly higher fuel prices. <\/strong>\u00a0The reason is the introduction of the new European emissions trading system ETS2<\/strong>, which will expand carbon emission allowances<\/strong> also to the transport and heating sector. This means that CO\u2082 emissions from petrol, diesel or natural gas for heating will also have to be paid for \u2013 and these costs will be reflected in prices for the end consumer. In this article, we explain clearly what ETS2 is, how emissions trading works, why it is being introduced in transport and heating, and what real impact<\/strong> this may have on fuel prices. At the same time, we will provide specific estimates of price increases (in cents per liter) and consider impacts on households and motorists<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

How does Emissions Trading (ETS) work?<\/h5>\n

Emissions trading system<\/strong> (ETS \u2013 Emissions Trading System) is a market mechanism by which the European Union wants to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It works on the principle of "cap and trade"<\/strong>This means that the EU will set ceiling<\/strong> on total CO\u2082 emissions in certain sectors and will issue emission quotas (allowances)<\/strong> in an amount corresponding to this limit. Each allowance<\/strong> allows the emission of one tonne of CO\u2082. Companies operating in these sectors must buy allowances for every ton of CO\u2082<\/strong> If a company emits fewer emissions than it has allowances for, it can sell excess quotas<\/strong> another \u2013 and vice versa, companies with higher emissions must buy the missing allowances to buy more<\/strong> or face sanctions. At the same time, the number of allowances increases every year gradually decreases<\/strong>to reduce emissions overall and achieve the set climate target. This system has covered large polluters (e.g. power plants and industry) since 2005 and has become a pillar of EU climate policy.<\/p>\n

ETS2: Emission allowances also for transport and heating<\/h5>\n

ETS2<\/strong> is the name for a new, separate emissions trading system that the EU will introduce from 2027<\/strong>This is an extension of the principle of emission quotas to areas that were not previously included in the first ETS \u2013 namely road transport, fuels for transport and heating of buildings<\/strong>. Practically, this means that fuel suppliers<\/strong> (refineries, distributors of gasoline, diesel, natural gas, heating oil, etc.) will now be obliged buy emission allowances<\/strong> for the CO\u2082 emissions that result from the combustion of the fuels they sell. Although end consumers (motorists or households) will not have to purchase any allowances directly, suppliers will additional costs<\/strong> for the purchase of allowances in fuel prices. In other words, carbon price<\/strong> is reflected in the price of a liter of gasoline, diesel or cubic meter of natural gas that we buy.<\/p>\n

Why is the ETS being expanded to include transport and heating?<\/strong> These sectors produce large amounts of CO\u2082 emissions (cars, trucks, fossil fuel heating of homes), but so far emissions in them have not been they didn't fall fast enough<\/strong>The EU has an ambitious target of reducing overall emissions by 55 % by 2030<\/strong> (compared to 1990) and achieve climate neutrality by 2050<\/strong>. Without the contribution of transport and buildings, this would not be possible. The introduction of ETS2 is intended to create market motivation<\/strong> also in these sectors: if fossil fuels become more expensive due to the carbon price, households and businesses will have a greater incentive invest in savings and switching to cleaner alternatives<\/strong> \u2013 for example, insulate the building, replace the boiler with a more environmentally friendly one, or move to electric car or other low-emission means of transport<\/strong>Voluntary efforts to date have not brought the desired reduction in emissions, so an EU-wide solution is coming in the form of allowances.<\/p>\n

Higher gasoline and diesel prices from 2027<\/h5>\n

The introduction of ETS2 will be reflected in the price of fuel<\/strong> relatively straightforward: if the fuel distributor will pay for the allowances<\/strong>, picks up wholesale fuel price<\/strong>, and drivers will feel it at gas stations. How much will prices increase? According to several estimates, it will each liter of gasoline and diesel more expensive by approximately 10 to 15 cents<\/strong>For example, a liter of gasoline that currently costs \u20ac1.50 could cost around \u20ac1.60 \u2013 purely as a result of the carbon tax. The resulting price will of course also depend on oil price developments and other factors, but carbon component<\/strong> could be significant. Some more pessimistic scenarios even suggest that fuel prices could return to a level of around \u20ac2 per liter<\/strong> \u2013 that is, to the values we experienced briefly in 2022 during the peak of the energy crisis.<\/p>\n

What are these numbers based on?<\/strong> The market price of emission allowances in the new ETS2 is expected to initially be around \u20ac45 per tonne of CO\u2082<\/strong>Burning one liter of gasoline produces approximately 2.3 kg CO\u2082<\/strong>, for diesel about 2.6 kg CO\u2082<\/strong> (diesel has slightly higher emissions per liter). If we do the math, \u20ac45 per ton means approximately 10 cents per liter of gasoline<\/strong> and around 12 cents per liter of diesel<\/strong>This is in line with the estimates given. However, it should be emphasized that this is a initial price<\/strong> in 2027 \u2013 the ETS2 system will have a gradually decreasing emissions cap<\/strong>, which may lead to an increase in the price of allowances after 2030. There is a mechanism in the rules that if the price of an allowance in the first years exceeds \u20ac45 (in 2020 prices) or grows too quickly, additional allowances will be released to the market. This should to slow down any sharp price increases<\/strong> at the beginning. However, in the long term, it cannot be ruled out that the carbon price will rise above this limit, which would mean further increase in the price of fossil fuels<\/strong> in later years.<\/p>\n

Impacts on motorists and households<\/h5>\n

For the average motorist, a price increase of ~\u20ac0.10 per liter could mean that they will pay about \u20ac0.10 more for a full tank (50 liters) of gasoline. \u20ac5 more<\/strong> than before. With a typical annual mileage of 10\u201315 thousand km, the fuel bill can increase by an order of magnitude tens of euros<\/strong> moreover. Freight transport<\/strong> and companies consuming large amounts of fuel will feel the impact even more significantly \u2013 fuel makes up a significant part of their budgets (for carriers, often 20\u201330% of the cost), and every extra cent is reflected in prices for customers. Experts warn that when diesel prices rise, The prices of transportation of goods and various services will also increase<\/strong>what is may translate into higher inflation<\/strong>So the fuel price increase will not only be felt by drivers when refueling \u2013 will indirectly affect prices<\/strong> many products (which need to be imported somewhere) and services. For example, food, building materials, or courier services may become slightly more expensive due to higher transportation costs.<\/em> Climate policy thus has a broader impact on the entire economy, not just on motorists' wallets.<\/p>\n

The impacts do not only concern transport, but also household heating<\/strong>ETS2 will also include fuels used for heating buildings<\/strong> \u2013 especially natural gas, heating oils and coal. This means that Fossil fuel heating will become more expensive<\/strong>, as gas and coal suppliers will also buy allowances. The specific impact depends on the type and energy efficiency of the household. Analyses by the Environmental Policy Institute suggest that households in older, uninsulated family houses<\/strong> they can pay for heating \u20ac300 to \u20ac500 more per year<\/strong> (if they heat with gas or coal). On the contrary, in apartment buildings with central gas heating, the increase in costs could be relatively small \u2013 it is estimated at under \u20ac100 extra per year<\/strong>Of course, if the household uses electric or renewable heat sources (heat pump, solar collectors, central heat supply from low-emission sources), ETS2 will not affect it directly<\/strong>Those who depend on burning gas, coal or oil in energy-inefficient buildings will be most affected.<\/p>\n

Will there be help for citizens?<\/strong> Part of the revenue from the sale of ETS2 allowances is to flow into the so-called Social and Climate Fund<\/strong> EU. It should serve to compensation for vulnerable households<\/strong> and small businesses \u2013 for example, for subsidies for low-income households to pay their energy bills, or for financing programs that help people reduce consumption (subsidies for home insulation, boiler replacement, support for switching to public transport, etc.). Each EU member state is also obliged to use the remaining money from the sale of allowances for climate and social measures<\/strong> and regularly report on how it has used these funds. The aim is to mitigate the impact on the living standards of the most vulnerable groups of the population and ensure a just transition.<\/p>\n

What does this mean for Slovakia and ordinary drivers?<\/h5>\n

From the perspective of an ordinary driver or household, this is undoubtedly unpopular measure<\/strong> \u2013 no one wants to pay more at the gas station or for heating at home. That is why the introduction of ETS2 has a political dimension. Slovak government<\/strong> (similar to the Czech Republic) has already expressed reservations about the new system. It currently indicates that in 2027 does not plan to immediately burden motorists with new fees<\/strong>, but first it will only run emissions monitoring phase<\/strong>This would mean some impact delay<\/strong> \u2013 at least for a transitional period, prices would not have to increase in our country unless Slovakia formally applied the charging of emission quotas in the transport sector from the very beginning. However, it is questionable to what extent individual states will be able to afford to postpone the application of common EU rules. In the event that Slovakia does indeed not join the transport allowance system for a longer period, Fuel prices in our country would remain lower<\/strong> than in surrounding countries. However, this could lead to \u201cfuel tourism\u201d<\/strong> \u2013 drivers from neighboring countries would drive to refuel here, similar to what we saw in the past with regulated prices in Hungary. However, in the long term, we will probably not avoid the trend of rising fossil fuel prices.<\/p>\n

Summarized and underlined:<\/strong> From 2027, a new factor will come into play affecting the prices of gasoline, diesel, and fossil fuels for heating - carbon emission allowances in the ETS2 system<\/strong>These will make it more expensive to operate combustion cars and heat homes, with the estimated price increase being around 10-15 cents per liter of fuel<\/strong> (at the current allowance price of ~45 \u20ac\/ton of CO\u2082) and hundreds of euros per year for heating older houses. For ordinary consumer<\/strong> This is bad news \u2013 higher gas and energy bills can put a strain on the family budget. On the other hand, the EU's intention is to incentivize emission reductions<\/strong> and to finance measures that help people adapt from the collected fees (for example, subsidizing energy-saving solutions). Whether we agree with this or not, it seems that The era of cheap fossil fuels is ending.<\/strong> a air pollution price<\/strong> will increasingly be reflected in our everyday costs. Ordinary motorists and households should prepare for this in good time \u2013 whether by planning more fuel-efficient operations, investing in energy savings, or considering switching to greener alternatives<\/strong>, which will be increasingly advantageous in the long term. Green transformation<\/strong> It is also coming to gas stations and boiler rooms, and from 2027 we will all feel it in our wallets. Spring<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  • Official information from the European Commission on ETS2<\/li>\n
  • Analysis of the impacts of ETS2 on transport (Biofuel Express)<\/li>\n
  • TopSpeed.sk and HN news about the expected fuel price increase<\/li>\n
  • Energie-portal.sk \u2013 estimates of increase in heating costs for households<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Car owners across the EU will have to prepare for significantly higher fuel prices from 2027. The reason is the introduction of the new European emissions trading system ETS2, which will extend carbon emission allowances to<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36365","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uhlikove-kredity"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36365","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36365"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36365\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36365"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36365"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36365"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}