{"id":36142,"date":"2025-06-12T21:16:34","date_gmt":"2025-06-12T19:16:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/?p=36142"},"modified":"2025-06-12T21:17:29","modified_gmt":"2025-06-12T19:17:29","slug":"power-outage-and-european-winters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/2025\/06\/12\/power-outage-and-european-winters\/","title":{"rendered":"AMOC collapse and European winters"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>New research suggests a potential &quot;collapse&quot; of key Atlantic ocean currents could cause <strong>dramatic drop in winter temperatures across northern Europe<\/strong>, which would also overcome human-caused warming<!--more--> activity. This study, published in <em>Geophysical Research Letters<\/em>, examines the combined impact of the cessation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and global warming on temperatures in northern Europe.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What is AMOC?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The AMOC is a system of ocean currents that plays a role in <strong>essential role in keeping Europe warm<\/strong>. It transports warm water northward from the tropics to Europe and cold, deep water back south. This system is considered by some scientists to be a \u201ctipping point\u201d that, if triggered, would be irreversible on a human timescale. The collapse of the AMOC is often referred to as a \u201chalt\u201d or \u201cbreakdown.\u201d The potential collapse of these ocean currents could be caused by the influx of freshwater from melting ice, as well as rising air temperatures.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Scientific debate and risks<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Although there is considerable scientific debate about whether human-induced climate change is causing the AMOC to slow down and when it might reach a \u201ctipping point,\u201d some scientists estimate that the collapse could occur as early as this century. Previous work by the study\u2019s lead author, Dr. Ren\u00e9 van Westen, found that the current state of the AMOC is on a trajectory toward tipping. That work also suggested a drop in average monthly winter temperatures in northern Europe of 10-30\u00b0C and a \u201cdrastic shift\u201d in precipitation patterns in the Amazon.<\/p>\n<p><strong>New research findings<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In their latest study, Van Westen and his colleagues focused on <strong>impact of the AMOC tipping event in combination with the impacts of climate change<\/strong>, rather than examining the collapse of ocean currents in isolation. The goal was to answer the question of whether warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions could offset the cooling from the AMOC collapse.<\/p>\n<p>Scientists simulated the collapse of the AMOC under three global warming scenarios:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Medium emissions scenario (RCP4.5)<\/strong>, which is consistent with current global climate policies.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Very high emissions scenario (RCP8.5)<\/strong>, where warming will reach 4\u00b0C above the pre-industrial average by 2100.<\/li>\n<li><strong>&quot;Pre-industrial&quot; scenario<\/strong>, without any man-made global warming.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In all scenarios, the researchers ran multiple simulations 500 years into the future, stabilizing global warming at 2\u00b0C and above 4\u00b0C by 2100. It is important to note that the study does not focus on when the AMOC might pass the tipping point, but rather on scenarios in the distant future when it has already happened. The simulation of the AMOC collapse in the model required the application of high levels of \u201cunrealistic\u201d freshwater inflow into the North Atlantic to overcome the \u201cbias\u201d in climate models that have an overly stable AMOC.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Implications for Europe<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The most striking finding is that <strong>AMOC collapse in a world that is 2\u00b0C warmer will result in a colder Europe than it is today<\/strong>In this scenario, corresponding to medium emissions, northwestern Europe will face a \u201cdeep cooling\u201d, characterized by more intense winter extremes.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>London<\/strong> could experience extremely cold winters with temperatures approaching <strong>-20\u00b0C<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>IN <strong>Donkey<\/strong> in Norway, winter extremes could drop to around <strong>-48\u00b0C<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>Average winter temperatures in London could be 1.9\u00b0C and in Oslo -16.5\u00b0C.<\/li>\n<li>Other cities, such as <strong>Edinburgh (-29.7\u00b0C)<\/strong> or <strong>Paris (-18\u00b0C)<\/strong>, would also face extreme cold.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>These low temperatures would be caused by the loss of heat transfer from the tropics via ocean currents, as well as the expansion of sea ice into northern Europe during the winter months. Although the winters would be extreme, <strong>summer temperatures would be expected to be only slightly cooler<\/strong> as in the pre-industrial era, which would mean dramatic temperature swings throughout the year. Professor Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter notes that such a scenario would mean \u201cliving like an ice age\u201d in winter, while there would still be hot extremes in summer. Dr van Westen stresses that our social structure and infrastructure are not built for such extreme cold conditions.<\/p>\n<p>Conversely, in a scenario where the world is 4\u00b0C warmer (very high emissions), <strong>cooling associated with the cessation of ocean currents would not outweigh global warming<\/strong>Northern Europe would not experience the large-scale expansion of sea ice or the strong cooling projected for a 2\u00b0C warming scenario. Instead, temperatures would be expected to increase throughout the year, especially in the summer months, although warming in Northern Europe would be less than the global average.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Future research and uncertainties<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Experts who were not involved in the study acknowledged its importance but stressed the need for further research. Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf of Potsdam University said the new study was \u201cvery welcome\u201d and confirmed long-standing concerns about the massive impacts of the AMOC collapse on European climate. Dr. Alejandra Sanchez-Franks of the National Oceanography Center, however, cautioned that the study used an idealized experiment and its conclusions related to the European climate 200 years after the AMOC change, not the immediate impacts. Dr. Yechul Chin of Seoul National University added that \u201csignificant uncertainties\u201d remained that needed to be resolved for risk quantification and robust mitigation strategies.<\/p>\n<p>In conclusion, although the exact timing and extent of a possible AMOC collapse are still debated, this study makes a significant contribution to understanding the potential, <strong>radical changes that could occur in Europe&#039;s climate<\/strong>. <em><strong>Spring<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>New research suggests that a potential &quot;collapse&quot; of key Atlantic ocean currents could cause a dramatic drop in winter temperatures across northern Europe, overpowering even human-caused warming.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-klimaticka-zmena"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36142"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36142\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36142"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}