{"id":33654,"date":"2025-01-28T20:50:14","date_gmt":"2025-01-28T19:50:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/?p=33654"},"modified":"2025-01-28T20:50:42","modified_gmt":"2025-01-28T19:50:42","slug":"climate-change-and-temperature-related-mortality-in-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/2025\/01\/28\/climate-change-and-temperature-related-mortality-in-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate change and temperature-related mortality in Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A study published in the journal <em><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41591-024-03452-2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Nature Medicine<\/a><\/span> <\/em>evaluates <strong>the impact of climate change on mortality<\/strong> caused by heat and cold in 854 European cities between 2015 and 2099. It analyses different scenarios that take into account climate change, demographic developments and adaptation to heat.<\/p>\n<p>Key findings:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>No heat adaptation<\/strong> Heat-related mortality is expected to <strong>overcomes the decline in cold-related mortality<\/strong> in all scenarios considered.<\/li>\n<li>Under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, which assumes the least effort in mitigation and adaptation, the total <strong>number of deaths<\/strong> related to climate change could <strong>increase by 49.9 %<\/strong> and accumulate 2,345,410 deaths between 2015 and 2099. Even with a high level of adaptation (50% risk reduction), this trend would not be reversed.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Regional differences<\/strong> are significant: Northern European countries could see a slight decrease in mortality, while <strong>Mediterranean and Eastern Europe<\/strong> they are very vulnerable.<\/li>\n<li>The increase in heat-related mortality is associated with a steeper curve of the mortality-temperature curve at high temperatures. This means that an increase in temperature has a greater impact on mortality than a decrease in temperature.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Heat adaptation<\/strong> can mitigate negative impacts, but large-scale adaptation (90% risk reduction) is needed to reverse the trend of increasing mortality, especially under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Even with 50 % adaptation, mortality would still increase in the Mediterranean, Central Europe and the Balkans.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Geographical differences<\/strong> are significant. For example, Malta shows the largest increase in mortality, while Ireland shows the lowest.<\/li>\n<li>The data indicate that <strong>strong mitigation policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions are key<\/strong>to avoid widespread increases in mortality associated with climate change.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The document emphasizes that it is <strong>A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on health is needed<\/strong> and that mitigation and adaptation measures need to be taken to protect the health of the population.<\/p>\n<p>Study methodology:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The study uses <strong>data from 854 European cities<\/strong> with more than 50,000 inhabitants.<\/li>\n<li>They were used <strong>daily temperature data<\/strong> from 19 general circulation models (GCMs), demographic projections, and specific temperature-related mortality curves for each city and five age groups.<\/li>\n<li>To isolate the impacts of climate change, two sub-scenarios were compared: &quot;full&quot; (with climate and demographic changes) and &quot;demographic change only&quot; (with constant temperature distribution).<\/li>\n<li>They were also used <strong>Monte Carlo simulations<\/strong> to account for uncertainty in epidemiological analyses.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The study also considers factors such as population aging, which increases vulnerability to heat and cold, as well as the potential for adaptation through socio-economic factors. However, the consideration of adaptation was limited to general adaptation without geographical differences and specific driving forces. <em><strong>Spring<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Glossary of key terms<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways):<\/strong> Shared socio-economic pathways; a framework for socio-economic development scenarios used in modelling the future impact of climate change.<\/li>\n<li><strong>GCM (General Circulation Model):<\/strong> General circulation model; a computer model that simulates the global climate system and is used to predict future climate conditions.<\/li>\n<li><strong>ERF (Exposure-Response Function):<\/strong> Exposure response function; an epidemiological function that describes the relationship between exposure (e.g. temperature) and health outcome (e.g. mortality).<\/li>\n<li><strong>MMT (Minimum Mortality Temperature):<\/strong> Minimum mortality temperature; the temperature at which mortality is lowest, and from which it increases at higher and lower temperatures.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Net Effect:<\/strong> The balance between increases in heat-related mortality and decreases in cold-related mortality due to climate change.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Adaptation:<\/strong> Measures that reduce the negative impacts of climate change. In this context, these are measures that reduce the negative impacts of heat on health.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Mitigation:<\/strong> Measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and thereby slow down climate change.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Monte Carlo Simulations:<\/strong> A computational technique that uses random numbers to model the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot be easily predicted due to random variables. It is used in the study to model uncertainty in ERF estimates.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Mortality:<\/strong> The number of deaths in a given population during a certain period.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Temperature-related mortality:<\/strong> Mortality that is directly affected by exposure to extremely high or low temperatures.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<footer class=\"mat-body-small ng-tns-c1300203152-6 is-tab-view\">NotebookLM&#039;s answers may be inaccurate, so please verify them.<\/footer>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The study, published in the journal Nature Medicine, assesses the impact of climate change on heat- and cold-related mortality in 854 European cities between 2015 and 2099. It analyses different scenarios that take into account climate change, demographic developments and heat adaptation. Key findings: Without heat adaptation, heat-related mortality is expected to outpace the decline in heat-related mortality [\u2026]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-33654","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-klimaticka-zmena"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33654","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33654"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33654\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33654"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33654"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33654"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}