{"id":32556,"date":"2024-12-03T17:22:41","date_gmt":"2024-12-03T16:22:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/?p=32556"},"modified":"2024-12-03T17:23:20","modified_gmt":"2024-12-03T16:23:20","slug":"the-first-ice-free-day-in-the-arctic-ocean-could-occur-before-2030","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/2024\/12\/03\/the-first-ice-free-day-in-the-arctic-ocean-could-occur-before-2030\/","title":{"rendered":"The first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could occur before 2030"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Projections of a sea ice-free Arctic have so far focused on average monthly ice-free conditions. Here, we provide the first projections of when we might see the first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean, using daily output from multiple CMIP6 models. We find that there is a large range in the predicted first ice-free day, from 3 years from the model-equivalent state in 2023 to no ice-free day before the end of the simulations in 2100, depending on the model and forcing scenario used. Using a narrative approach, we then focus on nine simulations where the first ice-free day occurs within 3 to 6 years, i.e. potentially before 2030, to understand what could cause such an unlikely but very impressive transition to the first ice-free day. day. We find that all of these early ice-free days occur during rapid ice loss and are associated with strong winter and spring warming. (<em>C\u00e9line Heuz\u00e9 &amp; Alexandra Jahnov\u00e1, more at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-024-54508-3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">nature.com<\/span><\/a>)<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Projections of a sea ice-free Arctic have so far focused on average monthly ice-free conditions. Here we provide the first projections of when we might see the first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean, using daily output from multiple CMIP6 models. We find that there is a large range in the predicted first ice-free day, from 3 years compared to [\u2026]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-32556","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-klimaticka-zmena"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32556","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32556"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32556\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32556"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32556"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32556"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}