New research suggests that increasing water and food shortages caused by climate change are fueling conflict in densely populated, violence-prone Central American cities. Why this matters: It\u2019s no secret that water scarcity fuels domestic, social, and political instability. The role of drought in agricultural production and food security, and its link to conflict, is less well known. The annual spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group are taking place in Washington this week, with climate change and the global food crisis in the spotlight. What they found: A new study published in the journal Nature Water suggests that declining rural food production in Central America may be increasing food insecurity in interconnected urban environments, thanks to the critical role of food trade. The work links droughts, food availability, and urban conflict rates between 1996 and 2016 along the Central American \u201cdry corridor.\u201d The \u201cdry corridor\u201d is an ecological region along the Pacific coast that stretches from southern Mexico to Panama and includes Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Enlarge: Several cities in the tropical dry zone are known for high rates of homicide and urban violence\u2014and more than a quarter of residents lack the income needed to buy food. Rural communities in the \u201cdry corridor\u201d also suffer from the can\u00edcula, an extremely dry season that regularly \u201cinterrupts\u201d the rainy season during July and August, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. How it works: The lack of rainfall negatively affects the production of crops such as staple seasonal cereals, which are the main source of food and income for low-income households that depend on local agriculture. What they say: Lead author Martina Sardo, a PhD candidate in civil and environmental engineering and a researcher at Politecnico di Milano, tells Axios that their new work is one of the first to quantitatively measure the impact of climate-induced food insecurity on conflict. In numbers: One example is the impact of the 2009 Guatemalan drought, which caused a significant drop in agricultural yields for coffee (-20 %), sugarcane (-10 %), and corn (-30 %) in the rural town of Retalhuleu in southwestern Guatemala, where the can\u00edcula is felt more intensely. This in turn increased food insecurity in Guatemala City, which is connected to Retalhuleu through food trade, resulting in the total available food supply being less than the minimum daily energy needs. That same year, the number of conflicts in Guatemala City increased significantly. \u201cWhen droughts occur\u2026 food flows are reduced,\u201d says Sardo. Notably, research further reinforces the role of climate as a \u201cthreat multiplier.\u201d A 2022 analysis by the World Food Programme and CGIAR found that climate shocks to food production \u201climit rural prosperity and hinder food security\u201d in the Central American Dry Corridor, causing migration to urban areas, especially for \u201csmall-scale grain producers.\u201d The bottom line: \u201cThe region is already vulnerable, and climate change is exacerbating that vulnerability,\u201d says Sardo. \u201cImproving regional resilience could be the tipping point that prevents food insecurity.\u201d<\/p>\n
Ayurella Horn-Muller<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Growing water and food shortages caused by climate change are increasing conflict in densely populated, violence-prone Central American cities, according to new research. Why this matters: It\u2019s no secret that water scarcity fuels domestic, social, and political instability. The role of drought in agricultural production and food security, and its connection to conflict, is less well known. This week [\u2026]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2162","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-klimaticka-zmena"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2162","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2162"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2162\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2162"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2162"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2162"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}