The recent Global Tipping Points Conference 2025 in Exeter, UK, focused on an urgent warning: the window to avert irreversible climate impacts is “fast closing.” The event, which was labeled a “call to action” for the research community, policymakers and business leaders, highlighting the importance of understanding and accelerating action on “tipping points”.

What are tipping points? Tipping points, or “tipping points,” are thresholds beyond which parts of the Earth system can shift irreversibly and often abruptly to a new state. They are caused by “reinforcing feedbacks” in the system that become “self-perpetuating” and “very difficult to reverse.” Since the first Tipping Points Conference in 2022, global temperatures have risen, bringing many of the Earth’s tipping points closer.

Key risks and compromised systems

Professors Tim Lenton and Johan Rockström, co-chairs of the conference, highlighted that global warming is pushing many Earth systems closer to their tipping points. Johan Rockström warned that Earth system risks have reached “globally catastrophic” levels. The biggest risks with high severity and probability of occurrence include:

• Collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets: These shelves contain enough ice to raise sea levels by 65 metres. Prof. Ricarda Winkelmann described these systems as “slowly evolving” but capable of “rapid and abrupt changes”, as demonstrated by the massive break-off of the Ilulissat glacier. Modelling studies suggest a “danger zone” for the Ross Shelf of between 3.5-4°C and for the Filchner-Ronne Shelf of between 5-5.5°C of global warming. The increase in salinity in the Southern Ocean since 2015 suggests that “the ocean may have entered a new system” where warmer, saltier water makes it harder for sea ice to re-grow.
• The dying of the Amazon rainforest: This rainforest is at risk of transitioning to dry savannah at just 3-5°C of global warming. Decades of “high levels of deforestation and degradation” are reducing water recycling, leading to droughts and forest fires, and even pushing the temperature threshold for extinction lower. Modeling studies suggest that the risk of the Amazon dying increases dramatically at 1.5-2°C of warming, when deforestation is taken into account.
• Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Discontinuation.

Furthermore, the analysis shows that 26% of global land area is threatened by at least one ecological “change regime”, affecting 3.4 billion people (43% of the world's population). Coral reefs (31%), tundra (transition to boreal forest, 30%) and tropical forests (transition to savanna, 28%) are at risk.

The potential for “positive tipping points” The conference also focused heavily on “positive tipping points,” which represent large-scale, self-driving societal changes capable of reducing human impact on the climate. Prof. Lenton said that “there is a compelling argument that we could get out of trouble more quickly” by focusing on these points. Examples include:

• Rapid introduction of electric vehicles (EVs): Declining costs and increasing purchases are creating a “feedback loop” that is driving exponential growth in EV sales, while conventional car sales are plummeting in key countries.
• Shift in energy and industry: The power generation sector is undergoing a successful transformation, and although the transformation of the steel industry is in its early stages, clean steel subsidies (such as the US Inflation Reduction Act) may accelerate the “risk perception tipping point” where delayed, not early, action becomes a risk.
• "Doughnut economics" and planetary health: A growing number of cities and regions are adopting a “doughnut economics” framework that balances human needs and planetary boundaries. The Malaysian government has adopted a planetary health framework into its development plan.
• Changing eating habits: A project in Denmark is promoting a shift to a plant-based diet through community actions, which could lead to a “deep ecological transformation.”

The idea of positive tipping points changes the political narrative: instead of taxation, which is politically difficult, the focus is on “overcoming the initial hurdle” after which the system will take off on its own (as was the case with the solar revolution). The research community is looking for a “recipe” and a “toolbox” to identify signals of destabilization of existing systems and accelerate positive change.

The importance of governance and communication

The conference stressed the importance of strong global and local governance in implementing policies to halt global warming. The need for “prevention” and “reorganization” was discussed. The successful Montreal Protocol (a binding agreement to limit emissions of ozone-depleting substances) was cited as an example of how agreements must be binding, not voluntary.

Scientists need to better communicate the risks of tipping points to spur action. Rockström noted that the media has a “huge responsibility” and it is “unfortunate” that they downplay the risks and only allow “sound bites” from scientists. Nevertheless, as Prof. Winkelmann said, the media “can play an incredibly important role in moving things forward.” It is disappointing that countries have decided not to include a special report on tipping points in the IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report (AR7) because the topic “concerns politicians and some member countries.” However, there will be “a lot more science on tipping points” in AR7 thanks to new modelling programs like TIPMIP.

New scientific findings and next steps

New scientific findings presented at the conference include initial results from the international Tipping-point Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP), which provides the “strongest scientific basis” for analyzing tipping points. Another project, the What If Modelling Intercomparison Project (WhatIfMIP), examines the cascading effects of one tipping point on another.

Future plans include further conferences on tipping points in Malaysia (2026) and Berlin (2027). A second global report on tipping points is planned for the second half of 2025 and will focus on governance issues and case studies. The scientific community is also invited to develop a “robust risk assessment of tipping point dynamics” and a “first global atlas of tipping point financial risks” for the IPCC AR7. However, funding cuts to climate research, for example in the US, are worrying as they threaten our ability to monitor Earth system destabilization.

Finally, the conference declaration called on governments to adopt policies that will help trigger positive tipping points in their economies and societies, with the aim of generating self-driving changes towards net-zero emissions. It was highlighted that "decisive policy and civil society action" are essential for the world to "turn from facing the uncontrollable risks of tipping points to seizing the opportunities of positive tipping points".