The volatility of food prices, such as rice, cocoa, coffee and others, is getting worse. This is due to both climate change and market speculation. Agriculture has been dealing with problems that are not limited to Europe for a long time. Climate change leads to a reduction in production and the pressure on raw material prices increases. Eating out could thus become a more expensive affair, in some cases even a luxury. What future awaits us on the European table?
"There are several factors that cause price increases. Climate change is definitely one of them, it threatens production. The demand for coffee, which is one of the main consumer products in the world, is very high. However, the marketing of coffee is controlled by only a few traders who control the supply through price speculation. According to the World Coffee Organization, the price of coffee has increased globally by 54.6 % since August 2023. In addition, higher costs in the catering industry are also passed on to the final consumer."
Cocoa and sugar have also been affected by similar price problems. What happens in these cases? "The increase in sugar prices in 2023 resulted from the EU's actions, which introduced tariffs on imports from abroad to protect European suppliers from cheaper competition. The cocoa discussion is more complicated. The ecological problems in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, two of the world's main cocoa producers, have been compounded by the speculation of some hedge funds investing in cocoa futures.
As raw material prices rise, some are already considering alternatives, such as carob, which is considered an ecologically sustainable, drought-resistant plant. Can carob gain importance in commodity markets? “If there are more sustainable and cheaper alternatives, why not consider them? But taste is also important - I've never tasted carob myself, but it seems hard for it to compete with a certain chocolate!"
Problems caused by the climate also affect livestock farms, where a decrease in milk production is predicted. The resurgence of bird flu in poultry farms has in turn increased the price of eggs. Is this the perfect storm for farmers? “The agricultural sector is in crisis and the climate conditions are only making it worse. In Europe, we face competition from abroad. We need not only economic aid, but also a recovery program focused on quality, which distinguishes us from intensive agriculture and cultivation."
In 2023, India has stopped rice exports due to drought, and Japan's rice stocks are at historic lows. Is it just the climate? “In Japan, the decline in rice stocks is attributed not only to abnormal heat, but also to increased tourism. In India, the ban on rice exports is a policy move to meet domestic demand and reduce food prices. However, such an anti-inflationary measure had global implications as India is the world's largest exporter of rice.”
In short, this issue is complex and price increases can significantly affect consumers. The further development of the situation is unclear, but the conditions are challenging. (Co2AI)