A new study highlights the importance of meeting the 1.5°C warming limit set by the Paris Agreement to protect the Earth's major systems. He warns that current policies could lead to higher global warming and increase the risk of overturning climate systems.
Researchers focus on the serious risks of destabilizing key components of Earth's climate, such as ice caps and ocean currents, that may be caused by climate change. They draw attention to the need to respect the warming limit of 1.5 °C in order to avoid serious negative impacts in the future. Exceeding this limit increases the likelihood of overturns, which are fundamental changes that can affect the stability of the global climate for centuries.
Anthropogenic climate change can destabilize important components of the Earth system, including ice sheets and ocean circulation patterns. Although these changes do not occur immediately, their processes can take tens, hundreds or thousands of years. Scientists warn that it is essential to avoid them.
In their latest study, published in Nature Communications, they assessed the risks of destabilizing at least one key element if 1.5°C is exceeded. The analysis underlines the importance of complying with the climate goals of the Paris Agreement and indicates the long-term consequences of current climate inaction.
"Although the year 2300 may seem far away, it is important to analyze the risks of overturning based on our best knowledge. The results show that achieving and maintaining zero net greenhouse gas emissions is key to limiting these risks for hundreds of years."
Risk of tipping over and rising temperatures
"We see an increase in the risk of overturning with every tenth of a degree above 1.5°C. Exceeding 2°C would increase the risk even more. This is worrying because current policy scenarios may lead to warming of around 2.6°C by the end of the century.”
Priority to achieve carbon neutrality
"The study proves that we can minimize the risks of overturning by rapidly reducing warming. This can only be achieved by achieving at least zero emissions by 2100. The results underline the importance of the Paris Agreement for limiting warming to below 2°C."
The importance of the 1.5°C warming limit
The analyzed tilting elements are crucial for the stability of the Earth's climate system. Earth models cannot yet fully simulate their complex behavior. Therefore, the researchers used a special model to account for the relevant uncertainties in the flipping elements.
"The analysis reinforces the belief that we underestimate the risks. We must recognize that the Paris Agreement's legally binding targets to keep warming "well below 2°C" actually mean a limit of 1.5°C. Increasing emissions lead to bottlenecks that we must minimize to avoid catastrophic impacts,” (Co2AI)