WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2024-2028)

According to the latest WMO report, there is an 80 % probability that the global temperature will occasionally exceed +1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) during the next 5 years. This warning indicates that we are approaching the limit set by the Paris Climate Agreement, which refers to the long-term average of temperatures (several decades), rather than the average of one to five years. However, the short-term crossing of this limit does not yet mean that the annual average global temperature increase will permanently reach +1.5 °C, which is one of the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement.

It is estimated that the global air temperature between 2024 and 2028 is likely to be in the range of +1.1 to +1.9 °C above the 1850-1900 average. The WMO report indicates an 86 % probability that at least one of the next 5 years will be warmer than the warmest year on record 2023. The probability of the global temperature exceeding +1.5°C during this period is 47 %, an increase from the previous report, which gave a probability of 32 % for 2023-2027.

Since 2015, when the probability of exceeding the +1.5 °C limit was zero, it has been steadily increasing. For the years 2017-2021, this probability was 20 % and for the years 2023-2027 it reached 66 %. The current report puts the probability at 80 %. The document was developed by the British meteorological organization Met Office, which is the WMO's leading organization for annual and decadal climate predictions.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said: "We are playing Russian roulette with our planet. We need to find a way off this highway to climate hell. The good news is that we still have control over the steering wheel. The battle for a critical increase in air temperature of +1.5°C will be won or lost during this decade - under the leadership of today's leaders." Guterres also supported Copernicus climate data showing that over the last 12 months (June 2023 to May 2024) a new record set with an increase of +1.63°C since the pre-industrial era.

Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General of the WMO, warned: “These statistics reflect that we are far from achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. We must urgently reduce greenhouse gas emissions or face enormous economic damage, damage to lives and devastation to ecosystems.” But Barrett reminded that the +1.5°C limit from the Paris Agreement refers to the long-term average, so it is not yet completely lost.

Current levels of global warming are already causing increased occurrences of extreme weather events, melting glaciers, and rising sea levels.

“We live in unprecedented times, but we also have unprecedented climate monitoring capabilities that can help with climate action. Today's warmest months will be considered cold compared to what lies ahead unless we reduce greenhouse gas concentrations," said Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

The latest WMO forecast expects a return of cooler conditions in the tropical Pacific due to La Niña, but also a further rise in global temperature over the next 5 years due to continued growth in greenhouse gas concentrations. (More on wmo.int)