{"id":39210,"date":"2026-05-15T06:06:19","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T04:06:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/?p=39210"},"modified":"2026-05-15T06:07:13","modified_gmt":"2026-05-15T04:07:13","slug":"varovanie-pred-rekordnymi-globalnymi-teplotami-rastie-riziko-velmi-silneho-super-el-nina","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/2026\/05\/15\/varovanie-pred-rekordnymi-globalnymi-teplotami-rastie-riziko-velmi-silneho-super-el-nina\/","title":{"rendered":"Varovanie pred rekordn\u00fdmi glob\u00e1lnymi teplotami: Rastie riziko ve\u013emi siln\u00e9ho \u201eSuper El Ni\u00f1a\u201c"},"content":{"rendered":"

Svetov\u00ed meteorol\u00f3govia, klimatol\u00f3govia a ekon\u00f3movia bij\u00fa na poplach. Po predch\u00e1dzaj\u00facich rokoch, kedy plan\u00e9tu ochladzoval fenom\u00e9n La Ni\u00f1a a n\u00e1slednom prechode cez neutr\u00e1lnu f\u00e1zu, sa na\u0161a plan\u00e9ta aktu\u00e1lne nach\u00e1dza na prahu mas\u00edvneho a potenci\u00e1lne devasta\u010dn\u00e9ho klimatick\u00e9ho javu. Najnov\u0161ie predpovede varuj\u00fa pred sformovan\u00edm takzvan\u00e9ho \u201eSuper El Ni\u00f1a\u201c<\/strong>, ktor\u00e9ho intenzita by pod\u013ea v\u0161etk\u00fdch indik\u00e1torov mohla do konca roka 2026 prekona\u0165 doposia\u013e zn\u00e1me historick\u00e9 maxim\u00e1. Odborn\u00edci varuj\u00fa, \u017ee kombin\u00e1cia tohto extr\u00e9mneho v\u00fdkyvu a dlhodob\u00e9ho glob\u00e1lneho otep\u013eovania sp\u00f4sob\u00ed zlomov\u00fd klimatick\u00fd moment, ktor\u00fd m\u00f4\u017ee vyhna\u0165 glob\u00e1lne teploty na \u00faplne nov\u00e9, bezprecedentn\u00e9 rekordy<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\u010co ukazuj\u00fa modely a pre\u010do ide o v\u00fdnimo\u010dn\u00fd stav?<\/strong><\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o je prirodzene sa vyskytuj\u00faci klimatick\u00fd jav, ktor\u00fd vznik\u00e1, ke\u010f zoslabn\u00fa v\u00fdchodn\u00e9 pas\u00e1ty a n\u00e1sledne sa spomal\u00ed pr\u00fadenie studen\u00fdch hlbinn\u00fdch v\u00f4d nahor. Teplo sa tak hromad\u00ed na povrchu vo v\u00fdchodnej a centr\u00e1lnej rovn\u00edkovej oblasti Tich\u00e9ho oce\u00e1nu, odkia\u013e sa uvo\u013e\u0148uje do atmosf\u00e9ry a men\u00ed celosvetov\u00e9 modely po\u010dasia.<\/p>\n

Najnov\u0161ie d\u00e1ta s\u00fa mimoriadne znepokojiv\u00e9. Hnacou silou aktu\u00e1lneho diania je mas\u00edvna oce\u00e1nska Kelvinova vlna (podpovrchov\u00fd pulz tepla), ktor\u00e1 neust\u00e1le naber\u00e1 na energii. Dlhodob\u00fd model Eur\u00f3pskeho centra pre strednodob\u00e9 predpovede po\u010dasia (ECMWF) v m\u00e1ji potvrdil, \u017ee existuje 100-percentn\u00e1 pravdepodobnos\u0165 sformovania Super El Ni\u00f1a do novembra 2026<\/strong>. K\u00fdm za siln\u00e9 El Ni\u00f1o sa pova\u017euje teplotn\u00e1 odch\u00fdlka o 1,5 \u00b0C a za super siln\u00e9 o 2 \u00b0C nad norm\u00e1lom, modely ECMWF nazna\u010duj\u00fa, \u017ee teplotn\u00e9 anom\u00e1lie m\u00f4\u017eu v roku 2026 presiahnu\u0165 extr\u00e9mnu hranicu 3 \u00b0C<\/strong>. Tak\u00e1to hodnota predstavuje najsilnej\u0161\u00ed zaznamenan\u00fd \u00fakaz v\u00f4bec.<\/p>\n

Hrozba menom \u201eRok 2027\u201c<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hoci El Ni\u00f1o priamo nesp\u00f4sobuje glob\u00e1lne otep\u013eovanie, v\u00fdrazne ho umoc\u0148uje. U\u017e predch\u00e1dzaj\u00faca udalos\u0165 z rokov 2023 \u2013 2024 (hodnoten\u00e1 ako piata najsilnej\u0161ia) v\u00fdznamne prispela k historicky najteplej\u0161iemu dvan\u00e1s\u0165mesa\u010dn\u00e9mu obdobiu a glob\u00e1lna teplota vtedy do\u010dasne presiahla n\u00e1rast o 1,5 \u00b0C.<\/p>\n

Analytici vydali v\u00e1\u017ene varovanie pre rok 2027. Najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1rast tepl\u00f4t po v\u00fdskyte El Ni\u00f1a sa toti\u017e na celej plan\u00e9te obvykle naplno prejav\u00ed a\u017e v nasleduj\u00facom kalend\u00e1rnom roku, kedy sa mas\u00edvne mno\u017estvo naakumulovan\u00e9ho tepla uvo\u013en\u00ed z oce\u00e1nov do atmosf\u00e9ry. Ak bude El Ni\u00f1o v roku 2026 tak\u00e9 intenz\u00edvne, ako predpovedaj\u00fa modely, o\u010dak\u00e1va sa, \u017ee priemern\u00e9 glob\u00e1lne teploty v roku 2027 prekonaj\u00fa v\u0161etko, \u010do sme kedy namerali<\/strong>, a p\u00f4jde o dovtedy nev\u00eddan\u00fd \u201eklimatick\u00fd \u0161ok\u201c.<\/p>\n

Predch\u00e1dzaj\u00face mimoriadne siln\u00e9 javy zanechali katastrof\u00e1lne n\u00e1sledky. Zatia\u013e \u010do udalos\u0165 z rokov 1997 \u2013 1998 st\u00e1la za celosvetov\u00fdmi ekonomick\u00fdmi \u0161kodami odhadovan\u00fdmi na 45 mili\u00e1rd dol\u00e1rov a tis\u00edckami \u00famrt\u00ed z d\u00f4vodu extr\u00e9mneho po\u010dasia, prehistorick\u00fd jav podobnej ve\u013ekosti (okolo roku 1877) priniesol devasta\u010dn\u00e9 such\u00e1, ktor\u00e9 v \u00c1zii, Afrike a Ju\u017enej Amerike sp\u00f4sobili hladomory a smr\u0165 12 a\u017e 50 mili\u00f3nov \u013eud\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Radik\u00e1lna zmena po\u010dasia a morsk\u00e9 vlny hor\u00fa\u010dav<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tento n\u00e1rast tepl\u00f4t oce\u00e1nov z\u00e1sadne prep\u00ed\u0161e distrib\u00faciu zr\u00e1\u017eok a b\u00farok. Zatia\u013e \u010do v severnom Atlantiku El Ni\u00f1o zvy\u010dajne potl\u00e1\u010da tvorbu hurik\u00e1nov, tento efekt m\u00f4\u017ee pr\u00eds\u0165 v roku 2026 oneskorene, \u010d\u00edm sa hrozba cykl\u00f3nov na za\u010diatku jesene nezni\u017euje. Na druhej strane, extr\u00e9mne oteplenie prinesie radik\u00e1lny n\u00e1rast po\u010dtu a sily hurik\u00e1nov a tajf\u00fanov vo v\u00fdchodnom Pacifiku<\/strong>, kde bud\u00fa ma\u0165 b\u00farky k dispoz\u00edcii obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estvo energie.<\/p>\n

Extr\u00e9mne dopady pones\u00fa najm\u00e4 morsk\u00e9 ekosyst\u00e9my. Z\u00e1znamy poukazuj\u00fa na to, \u017ee pri morsk\u00fdch vln\u00e1ch hor\u00fa\u010dav m\u00f4\u017eu by\u0165 povrchov\u00e9 vody lok\u00e1lne a\u017e o 4 a\u017e 5 \u00b0C teplej\u0161ie, ako je be\u017en\u00e9. Tieto hor\u00fa\u010davy priamo ved\u00fa k mas\u00edvnemu bieleniu a odumieraniu koralov\u00fdch \u00fatesov, vymieraniu podmorsk\u00fdch lesov (chal\u00fah) a kritick\u00fdm v\u00fdpadkom v rybolove.<\/strong> Druhy r\u00fdb migruj\u00fa do chladnej\u0161\u00edch v\u00f4d, \u010do napr\u00edklad historicky zdevastovalo priemysel lovu sardel pri pobre\u017e\u00ed Peru \u010di sp\u00f4sobilo hromadn\u00fd \u00fahyn ustr\u00edc a in\u00fdch \u017eivo\u010d\u00edchov.<\/p>\n

Potravinov\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnos\u0165 a ekonomick\u00e9 d\u00f4sledky<\/strong><\/p>\n

K\u00fdm oblasti ju\u017en\u00fdch Spojen\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1tov m\u00f4\u017eu paradoxne zaznamena\u0165 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 zr\u00e1\u017eky a \u00fa\u013eavu od sucha, situ\u00e1cia na ju\u017enej pologuli a v \u00c1zii bude presne opa\u010dn\u00e1. V\u00fdrazne sa o\u010dak\u00e1va \u00fatlm monz\u00fanov\u00fdch da\u017e\u010fov<\/strong>, \u010do kriticky ohroz\u00ed po\u013enohospod\u00e1rstvo. Indick\u00fd meteorologick\u00fd in\u0161tit\u00fat a analytici (ICRA) napr\u00edklad predpovedaj\u00fa, \u017ee pre aktu\u00e1lne formuj\u00face sa podmienky spadn\u00fa objemy juhoz\u00e1padn\u00e9ho monz\u00fanu v regi\u00f3ne len na \u00farove\u0148 92 % dlhodob\u00e9ho priemeru.<\/p>\n

Nedostatok da\u017e\u010fa a vysok\u00e9 teploty u\u017e historicky ved\u00fa k radik\u00e1lnemu zn\u00ed\u017eeniu \u00farody d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00fdch komod\u00edt, ako s\u00fa ry\u017ea, palmov\u00fd olej, cukrov\u00e1 trstina a kukurica. Tieto v\u00fdpadky nepochybne vyvolaj\u00fa akceler\u00e1ciu glob\u00e1lnej potravinovej infl\u00e1cie<\/strong> a m\u00f4\u017eu predstavova\u0165 existen\u010dn\u00fa kr\u00edzu pre najzranite\u013enej\u0161ie skupiny obyvate\u013estva v Afrike a rozvojovej \u00c1zii, \u010do sa sp\u00e1ja so zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fdm rizikom soci\u00e1lnych nepokojov.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1very modelov s\u00fa jasn\u00e9 a nezvratn\u00e9. Pred nami je obrovsk\u00fd test odolnosti na\u0161ej civiliz\u00e1cie a pripravenosti dod\u00e1vate\u013esk\u00fdch syst\u00e9mov. Pokia\u013e sa teplotn\u00e9 anom\u00e1lie do konca roka 2026 vy\u0161plhaj\u00fa k predpovedan\u00fdm 3 \u00b0C a uvo\u013enia obrovsk\u00e9 kvant\u00e1 tepla do glob\u00e1lnej atmosf\u00e9ry, nasleduj\u00face roky sa m\u00f4\u017eu do kron\u00edk zap\u00edsa\u0165 ako najkr\u00edzovej\u0161ie meteorologick\u00e9 obdobie modernej hist\u00f3rie. Pr\u00edprava z\u00e1chrann\u00fdch zlo\u017eiek, po\u013enohospod\u00e1rskeho a vodohospod\u00e1rskeho sektora tak nikdy nebola naliehavej\u0161ia. JRi&CO2AI<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Svetov\u00ed meteorol\u00f3govia, klimatol\u00f3govia a ekon\u00f3movia bij\u00fa na poplach. Po predch\u00e1dzaj\u00facich rokoch, kedy plan\u00e9tu ochladzoval fenom\u00e9n La Ni\u00f1a a n\u00e1slednom prechode cez neutr\u00e1lnu f\u00e1zu, sa na\u0161a plan\u00e9ta aktu\u00e1lne nach\u00e1dza na prahu mas\u00edvneho a potenci\u00e1lne<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39210","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-klimaticka-zmena"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39210","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39210"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39210\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39213,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39210\/revisions\/39213"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39210"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39210"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39210"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}