{"id":39096,"date":"2026-04-16T18:52:36","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T16:52:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/?p=39096"},"modified":"2026-04-16T18:53:59","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T16:53:59","slug":"nezvratny-kolaps-atlantickych-prudov-svet-caka-dalsie-oteplenie-a-drasticke-teplotne-rozdiely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/2026\/04\/16\/nezvratny-kolaps-atlantickych-prudov-svet-caka-dalsie-oteplenie-a-drasticke-teplotne-rozdiely\/","title":{"rendered":"Nezvratn\u00fd kolaps atlantick\u00fdch pr\u00fadov: Svet \u010dak\u00e1 \u010fal\u0161ie oteplenie a drastick\u00e9 teplotn\u00e9 rozdiely"},"content":{"rendered":"

Atlantick\u00e1 meridion\u00e1lna cirkul\u00e1cia (AMOC), \u010do je k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fd syst\u00e9m oce\u00e1nskych pr\u00fadov, ktor\u00fd reguluje kl\u00edmu na Zemi a zah\u0155\u0148a aj zn\u00e1my Golfsk\u00fd pr\u00fad, sa pod\u013ea vedeck\u00fdch ind\u00edci\u00ed m\u00f4\u017ee ocitn\u00fa\u0165 na pokraji kolapsu. Hoci sa dlh\u00e9 roky predpokladalo, \u017ee tak\u00e1to udalos\u0165 by priniesla najm\u00e4 prudk\u00e9 ochladenie severnej pologule a spomalila glob\u00e1lne otep\u013eovanie, najnov\u0161ie modely<\/span><\/a> odha\u013euj\u00fa ove\u013ea komplexnej\u0161\u00ed a hrozivej\u0161\u00ed scen\u00e1r. Zastavenie t\u00fdchto pr\u00fadov spust\u00ed re\u0165azov\u00fa reakciu: sp\u00f4sob\u00ed mas\u00edvne uvo\u013enenie uhl\u00edka z hlb\u00edn oce\u00e1nu do atmosf\u00e9ry, \u010do povedie k dodato\u010dn\u00e9mu glob\u00e1lnemu otepleniu a vytvor\u00ed drastick\u00e9 teplotn\u00e9 extr\u00e9my naprie\u010d plan\u00e9tou.<\/p>\n

Syst\u00e9m na pokraji bodu zlomu<\/strong><\/p>\n

V klimatol\u00f3gii je cirkul\u00e1cia AMOC pova\u017eovan\u00e1 za jeden z tzv. klimatick\u00fdch bodov zlomu (tipping elements), ktor\u00e9 m\u00f4\u017eu existova\u0165 vo viacer\u00fdch rovnov\u00e1\u017enych stavoch. To, ako sa t\u00e1to cirkul\u00e1cia zachov\u00e1 po kolapse, z\u00e1sadne z\u00e1vis\u00ed od mno\u017estva oxidu uhli\u010dit\u00e9ho (CO2) v atmosf\u00e9re. Zatia\u013e \u010do pri ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch, predindustri\u00e1lnych \u00farovniach CO2 (okolo 280 ppm) by sa syst\u00e9m mohol po vyvolanom kolapse zotavi\u0165, modely nazna\u010duj\u00fa, \u017ee pri hladin\u00e1ch CO2 nad 350 ppm sa AMOC st\u00e1va bistabilnou. Zjednodu\u0161ene povedan\u00e9: ak pri dne\u0161n\u00fdch a bud\u00facich vysok\u00fdch koncentr\u00e1ci\u00e1ch sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plynov pr\u00fady skolabuj\u00fa, tento stav bude nezvratn\u00fd a pr\u00fady zostan\u00fa natrvalo „vypnut\u00e9“.<\/p>\n

Zatia\u013e \u010do priame pozorovania na\u010falej neposkytuj\u00fa \u00faplne jednozna\u010dn\u00fd sign\u00e1l, viacer\u00e9 \u0161t\u00fadie na z\u00e1klade nepriamych ukazovate\u013eov nazna\u010duj\u00fa, \u017ee AMOC u\u017e dnes slabne a moment\u00e1lne sa nach\u00e1dza vo svojom najslab\u0161om obdob\u00ed za posledn\u00fdch tis\u00edc rokov. Hoci hodnotiaca spr\u00e1va IPCC uv\u00e1dza, \u017ee \u00fapln\u00e9 zastavenie pr\u00fadov do konca tohto storo\u010dia je sk\u00f4r nepravdepodobn\u00e9, najnov\u0161ie v\u00fdskumy varuj\u00fa, \u017ee toto riziko m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 v\u00e1\u017ene podhodnoten\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Skryt\u00e1 hrozba v oce\u00e1noch: Uvo\u013enenie uhl\u00edka<\/strong><\/p>\n

V\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina predch\u00e1dzaj\u00facich \u0161t\u00fadi\u00ed sa zameriavala prim\u00e1rne na to, ako kolaps AMOC ovplyvn\u00ed fyzik\u00e1lnu distrib\u00faciu tepla a kl\u00edmu preva\u017ene v predindustri\u00e1lnych podmienkach. Tieto \u0161t\u00fadie zhodne nach\u00e1dzali v\u00fdrazn\u00fd pokles celkov\u00fdch povrchov\u00fdch tepl\u00f4t. Najnov\u0161ie dlhodob\u00e9 simul\u00e1cie s vyu\u017eit\u00edm r\u00fdchleho a komplexn\u00e9ho klimatick\u00e9ho modelu CLIMBER-X v\u0161ak odhalili prekvapiv\u00fd mechanizmus \u00fazko sp\u00e4t\u00fd s uhl\u00edkov\u00fdm cyklom na\u0161ej plan\u00e9ty.<\/p>\n

Ak sa zastavia pr\u00fady v severnom Atlantiku, glob\u00e1lny oce\u00e1n ihne\u010f zareaguje na opa\u010dnom konci sveta \u2013 pri Antarkt\u00edde. R\u00fdchle oslabenie AMOC drasticky zn\u00ed\u017ei h\u013abku cirkul\u00e1cie vody na severe, no z\u00e1rove\u0148 spust\u00ed proces tzv. hlbokej konvekcie v Ju\u017enom oce\u00e1ne. T\u00e1to intenz\u00edvna konvekcia za\u010dne extr\u00e9mne premie\u0161ava\u0165 star\u00e9, hlbok\u00e9 vrstvy oce\u00e1nu, ktor\u00e9 s\u00fa obrovskou z\u00e1sob\u00e1r\u0148ou uhl\u00edka.<\/p>\n

N\u00e1sledkom toho sa enormn\u00e9 mno\u017estvo rozpusten\u00e9ho anorganick\u00e9ho uhl\u00edka z hlb\u00edn uvo\u013en\u00ed priamo do atmosf\u00e9ry vo forme CO2. Pod\u013ea simul\u00e1ci\u00ed by nezvratn\u00fd kolaps AMOC viedol k prudk\u00e9mu n\u00e1rastu atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9ho CO2 o 47 a\u017e 83 ppm, \u010do predstavuje \u010dist\u00e9 uvo\u013enenie 100 a\u017e 175 gigaton uhl\u00edka do ovzdu\u0161ia. Tieto hodnoty st\u00fapaj\u00fa priamo \u00famerne s t\u00fdm, ak\u00e1 vysok\u00e1 je po\u010diato\u010dn\u00e1 koncentr\u00e1cia CO2 v atmosf\u00e9re, ke\u010f\u017ee v teplej\u0161om kl\u00edme zadr\u017eiavaj\u00fa oce\u00e1ny ove\u013ea viac uhl\u00edka.<\/p>\n

Teplotn\u00e9 extr\u00e9my: Zima na severe, extr\u00e9mne teplo na juhu<\/strong><\/p>\n

Aj ke\u010f mas\u00edvne uvo\u013enenie uhl\u00edka sp\u00f4sob\u00ed celosvetov\u00e9 oteplenie, region\u00e1lne zmeny tepl\u00f4t bud\u00fa asymetrick\u00e9 a ni\u010div\u00e9. \u00daplne sa toti\u017e zmen\u00ed distrib\u00facia tepla na plan\u00e9te.<\/p>\n

Severn\u00e1 pologu\u013ea za\u017eije mimoriadne prudk\u00e9 ochladenie. Arktick\u00e9 oblasti (najm\u00e4 v \u0161\u00edrkach 60 \u00b0N \u2013 90 \u00b0N) by sa po kolapse pr\u00fadov ochladili v priemere o 7 \u00b0C. Kolaps toti\u017e odstrihne transport tepla zo slne\u010dn\u00fdch tr\u00f3pov do severn\u00e9ho Atlantiku. N\u00e1sledn\u00e9 lok\u00e1lne ochladenie sa bude samo mas\u00edvne zosil\u0148ova\u0165 prostredn\u00edctvom odrazivosti (albeda) morsk\u00e9ho \u013eadu \u2013 \u010d\u00edm viac \u013eadu vznikne, t\u00fdm viac slne\u010dn\u00e9ho \u017eiarenia sa odraz\u00ed sp\u00e4\u0165 do vesm\u00edru, \u010do teplotu e\u0161te viac zraz\u00ed nadol.<\/p>\n

Na druhej strane, ju\u017en\u00e1 pologu\u013ea a osobitne Antarkt\u00edda (60 \u00b0S \u2013 90 \u00b0S) by \u010delila otepleniu o zhruba 6 \u00b0C. Ak k tomuto kolapsu pripo\u010d\u00edtame dlhodob\u00e9 prebiehaj\u00face glob\u00e1lne otep\u013eovanie (napr\u00edklad pri stabilnej hladine CO2 450 ppm), spojen\u00fd efekt region\u00e1lneho oteplenia m\u00f4\u017ee v niektor\u00fdch ju\u017en\u00fdch oblastiach presiahnu\u0165 a\u017e desiv\u00fdch 10 \u00b0C. Ke\u010f\u017ee hlbok\u00e1 konvekcia vyn\u00e1\u0161a relat\u00edvne teplej\u0161iu vodu k povrchu, br\u00e1ni to tvorbe morsk\u00e9ho \u013eadu a obrovsk\u00e9 oblasti Ju\u017en\u00e9ho oce\u00e1nu tak zostan\u00fa \u00faplne bez \u013eadovej pokr\u00fdvky.<\/p>\n

Celkov\u00fd dopad: Zem sa ohreje, nie ochlad\u00ed<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ak by sme do klimatick\u00fdch v\u00fdpo\u010dtov zahrnuli v\u00fdlu\u010dne oce\u00e1nske pr\u00fadenie bez vplyvu uvo\u013enen\u00e9ho uhl\u00edka, kolaps AMOC by Zem glob\u00e1lne ochladil pribli\u017ene o 0,2 a\u017e 0,3 \u00b0C. Len\u017ee gigantick\u00e1 emisia sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plynov z hlb\u00edn okolo Antarkt\u00eddy tento ochladzuj\u00faci vplyv oce\u00e1nskej dynamiky \u00faplne zvr\u00e1ti. V\u00fdsledkom bude nakoniec n\u00e1rast glob\u00e1lnej priemernej povrchovej teploty. Ke\u010f sa po kolapse a v\u0161etk\u00fdch zmen\u00e1ch syst\u00e9m vr\u00e1ti do novej rovnov\u00e1hy, glob\u00e1lne teploty zostan\u00fa o 0,17 a\u017e 0,27 \u00b0C vy\u0161\u0161ie, ne\u017e boli pred samotn\u00fdm kolapsom.<\/p>\n

D\u00f4vodom, pre\u010do sa Zem neohreje e\u0161te ove\u013ea viac, s\u00fa suchozemsk\u00e9 lesy a ekosyst\u00e9my. Terestri\u00e1lny (suchozemsk\u00fd) uhl\u00edkov\u00fd cyklus toti\u017e funguje ako siln\u00e1 z\u00e1chrann\u00e1 brzda, ktor\u00e1 vstrebe \u010das\u0165 z tohto uvo\u013enen\u00e9ho oce\u00e1nskeho CO2. Keby pevnina uhl\u00edk z oce\u00e1nov neza\u010dala kompenza\u010dne pohlcova\u0165, oteplenie by dosiahlo a\u017e vy\u0161e 0,5 \u00b0C a atmosf\u00e9rick\u00fd CO2 by st\u00fapol a\u017e o katastrof\u00e1lnych 130 ppm. Vedci v\u0161ak varuj\u00fa, \u017ee v d\u00f4sledku odles\u0148ovania (napr\u00edklad v Amaz\u00f3nii) a glob\u00e1lnej zmeny kl\u00edmy sa niektor\u00e9 pr\u00edrodn\u00e9 zachyt\u00e1va\u010de uhl\u00edka u\u017e postupne menia na jeho zdroje, \u010do stavia t\u00fato poistku pr\u00edrody do zna\u010dnej neistoty.<\/p>\n

Varovanie priamo z d\u00f4b \u013eadov\u00fdch<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tieto teoretick\u00e9 zistenia presne zapadaj\u00fa do geologick\u00fdch z\u00e1znamov. \u013dadov\u00e9 jadr\u00e1 z Antarkt\u00eddy ukazuj\u00fa, \u017ee po\u010das poslednej \u013eadovej doby v \u010dase mas\u00edvneho rozpadu severn\u00fdch \u013eadovcov (tzv. Heinrichove udalosti), kolaps AMOC spustil identick\u00fd proces: od\u0161tartovala sa ju\u017en\u00e1 konvekcia a atmosf\u00e9rick\u00fd uhl\u00edk aj s antarktick\u00fdmi teplotami n\u00e1hle vzr\u00e1stli. K\u00fdm vtedy to bolo len asi 15 ppm CO2, dnes a v bud\u00facnosti, ke\u010f na\u0161e oce\u00e1ny obsahuj\u00fa kv\u00f4li emisi\u00e1m \u010faleko rozsiahlej\u0161ie z\u00e1soby uhl\u00edka, bude odozva ston\u00e1sobne hor\u0161ia.<\/p>\n

Kolaps atlantick\u00fdch pr\u00fadov tak v\u00f4bec nie je „bezpe\u010dnostn\u00fdm sp\u00edna\u010dom“, ktor\u00fd n\u00e1s ochr\u00e1ni pred otep\u013eovan\u00edm novou dobou \u013eadovou. Zr\u00fatenie AMOC nen\u00e1vratne rozvr\u00e1ti celosvetov\u00e9 pr\u00fadenie tepla i uhl\u00edka. Eur\u00f3pe a severu prinesie krut\u00e9 zimy, obrovsk\u00e9 teplo na\u017eenie k Antarkt\u00edde a do atmosf\u00e9ry vypust\u00ed to\u013eko CO2, \u017ee priemern\u00fa glob\u00e1lnu teplotu z dlhodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska e\u0161te dodato\u010dne zv\u00fd\u0161i. Tak\u00e9to trval\u00e9 klimatick\u00e9 riziko len potvrdzuje \u00fapln\u00fa nevyhnutnos\u0165 dekarboniz\u00e1cie spolo\u010dnosti na zabr\u00e1nenie nevratn\u00fdm glob\u00e1lnym zmen\u00e1m. JRi&CO2AI<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Atlantick\u00e1 meridion\u00e1lna cirkul\u00e1cia (AMOC), \u010do je k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fd syst\u00e9m oce\u00e1nskych pr\u00fadov, ktor\u00fd reguluje kl\u00edmu na Zemi a zah\u0155\u0148a aj zn\u00e1my Golfsk\u00fd pr\u00fad, sa pod\u013ea vedeck\u00fdch ind\u00edci\u00ed m\u00f4\u017ee ocitn\u00fa\u0165 na pokraji kolapsu. Hoci sa dlh\u00e9 roky predpokladalo, \u017ee tak\u00e1to udalos\u0165<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39096","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-klimaticka-zmena"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39096","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39096"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39096\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39099,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39096\/revisions\/39099"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39096"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39096"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39096"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}