{"id":38619,"date":"2026-01-26T10:32:20","date_gmt":"2026-01-26T09:32:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/?p=38619"},"modified":"2026-01-26T10:33:04","modified_gmt":"2026-01-26T09:33:04","slug":"vplyv-nahleho-topenia-permafrostu-a-poziarov-na-klimaticke-ciele-parizskej-dohody","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/2026\/01\/26\/vplyv-nahleho-topenia-permafrostu-a-poziarov-na-klimaticke-ciele-parizskej-dohody\/","title":{"rendered":"Vplyv n\u00e1hleho topenia permafrostu a po\u017eiarov na klimatick\u00e9 ciele Par\u00ed\u017eskej dohody"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Topenie permafrostu a \u010doraz intenz\u00edvnej\u0161ie po\u017eiare v arktick\u00fdch oblastiach predstavuj\u00fa pre klimatick\u00fa stabilitu plan\u00e9ty ove\u013ea v\u00e4\u010d\u0161iu hrozbu, ne\u017e sa doteraz predpokladalo. Nov\u00fd v\u00fdskum publikovan\u00fd v \u010dasopise <em>Communications Earth &amp; Environment<\/em> varuje, \u017ee<!--more--> zapo\u010d\u00edtanie t\u00fdchto \u010dasto prehliadan\u00fdch procesov v\u00fdrazne zni\u017euje zost\u00e1vaj\u00faci <strong>uhl\u00edkov\u00fd rozpo\u010det<\/strong> potrebn\u00fd na dosiahnutie cie\u013eov Par\u00ed\u017eskej dohody.<\/p>\n<p><strong>K\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e9 zistenie: Rozpo\u010det sa dramaticky kr\u00e1ti<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Zahrnutie emisi\u00ed z topenia permafrostu a po\u017eiarov do glob\u00e1lnych modelov zmen\u0161uje zost\u00e1vaj\u00faci povolen\u00fd objem emisi\u00ed od roku 2025 o:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>25 % \u00b1 12 %<\/strong> pre udr\u017eanie oteplenia pod hranicou <strong>1.5 \u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0645\u0626\u0648\u064a\u0629<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>17 % \u00b1 7 %<\/strong> pre udr\u017eanie oteplenia pod hranicou <strong>2,0 \u00b0C<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Tento pokles znamen\u00e1, \u017ee \u013eudstvo mus\u00ed zavies\u0165 hlb\u0161ie a naliehavej\u0161ie \u0161krty v emisi\u00e1ch sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plynov, aby kompenzovalo prirodzen\u00e9 sp\u00e4tn\u00e9 v\u00e4zby, ktor\u00e9 Arkt\u00edda uvo\u013e\u0148uje do atmosf\u00e9ry.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Pre\u010do s\u00fa doteraj\u0161ie modely ne\u00fapln\u00e9?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>V\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fdch glob\u00e1lnych klimatick\u00fdch modelov simuluje len tzv. <strong>postupn\u00e9 topenie<\/strong> permafrostu, \u010do je proces, pri ktorom sa p\u00f4da rozt\u00e1pa pomaly zhora nadol. V\u00fdskumn\u00fd t\u00edm v\u0161ak vylep\u0161il model <strong>OSCAR v3.0<\/strong>, aby zahrnul aj procesy, ktor\u00e9 boli doteraz podhodnoten\u00e9 alebo \u00faplne ch\u00fdbali.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tri kritick\u00e9 procesy, ktor\u00e9 menia hru:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>N\u00e1hle topenie (Termokras):<\/strong> Ke\u010f sa roztop\u00ed permafrost bohat\u00fd na \u013ead, zem sa prepadne, \u010do vedie k er\u00f3zii a vzniku jazier alebo mokrad\u00ed. Tento proces uvo\u013e\u0148uje ve\u013ek\u00e9 mno\u017estvo <strong>met\u00e1nu (CH4)<\/strong>, ktor\u00fd m\u00e1 silnej\u0161\u00ed sklen\u00edkov\u00fd efekt ako CO2.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Spa\u013eovanie podzemnej organickej hmoty:<\/strong> Pri po\u017eiaroch v tundre a tajge poch\u00e1dza a\u017e <strong>80 % \u2013 90 % emisi\u00ed<\/strong> z horenia hlbok\u00fdch vrstiev p\u00f4dy, nie z nadzemnej biomasy, \u010do be\u017en\u00e9 modely \u010dasto ignoruj\u00fa.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Potrasov\u00e9 topenie:<\/strong> Po\u017eiare ni\u010dia izola\u010dn\u00fa vrstvu veget\u00e1cie a organickej hmoty, \u010do sp\u00f4sobuje, \u017ee p\u00f4da pod nimi sa v nasleduj\u00facich rokoch top\u00ed ove\u013ea hlb\u0161ie a r\u00fdchlej\u0161ie.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Obrovsk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby uhl\u00edka v ohrozen\u00ed<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Severn\u00e9 oblasti postihnut\u00e9 permafrostom obsahuj\u00fa odhadom <strong>1460 a\u017e 1600 mili\u00e1rd ton (Pg) uhl\u00edka<\/strong>. To je pribli\u017ene dvojn\u00e1sobok mno\u017estva uhl\u00edka, ktor\u00e9 sa moment\u00e1lne nach\u00e1dza v celej zemskej atmosf\u00e9re. R\u00fdchle otep\u013eovanie Arkt\u00eddy, ktor\u00e9 dosahuje a\u017e <strong>1 \u00b0C za desa\u0165ro\u010die<\/strong>, rob\u00ed tento sklad uhl\u00edka mimoriadne zranite\u013en\u00fdm.<\/p>\n<p>Pod\u013ea v\u00fdsledkov \u0161t\u00fadie m\u00f4\u017eu kombinovan\u00e9 emisie z n\u00e1hleho topenia a po\u017eiarov zv\u00fd\u0161i\u0165 celkov\u00e9 emisie z permafrostu o <strong>166 % a\u017e 258 %<\/strong> v porovnan\u00ed s odhadmi, ktor\u00e9 po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00fa len s postupn\u00fdm topen\u00edm. Ro\u010dn\u00e9 emisie z t\u00fdchto procesov by do konca storo\u010dia mohli dosiahnu\u0165 \u00farove\u0148 <strong>7 \u2013 15 Gt CO2e<\/strong>, \u010do je porovnate\u013en\u00e9 alebo dokonca viac ako s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 ro\u010dn\u00e9 emisie cel\u00fdch <strong>Spojen\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1tov<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Vplyv na klimatick\u00fa politiku<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Tieto zistenia vytv\u00e1raj\u00fa obrovsk\u00fd tlak na glob\u00e1lne \u00fasilie o zmiernenie zmeny kl\u00edmy. Ak sa emisie z permafrostu a po\u017eiarov nezapo\u010d\u00edtaj\u00fa do n\u00e1rodn\u00fdch cie\u013eov zni\u017eovania emisi\u00ed, Par\u00ed\u017eske ciele sa stan\u00fa v podstate nedosiahnute\u013en\u00fdmi.<\/p>\n<p><strong>D\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e9 aspekty pre bud\u00facnos\u0165:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Kumulat\u00edvna zodpovednos\u0165:<\/strong> Emisie z permafrostu s\u00fa v\u00fdsledkom historick\u00fdch antropog\u00e9nnych emisi\u00ed. Zodpovednos\u0165 za ne by preto nemali nies\u0165 len arktick\u00e9 regi\u00f3ny, ale cel\u00e1 glob\u00e1lna komunita v pomere k ich historick\u00e9mu pr\u00edspevku k otep\u013eovaniu.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Nevratnos\u0165 procesu:<\/strong> Niektor\u00e9 d\u00f4sledky, ako napr\u00edklad prepad\u00e1vanie p\u00f4dy (subsidencia) alebo strata uhl\u00edka z permafrostu, s\u00fa v \u013eudsk\u00fdch \u010dasov\u00fdch mierkach <strong>nevratn\u00e9<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Dedi\u010dstvo pre bud\u00face gener\u00e1cie:<\/strong> V\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina emisi\u00ed z permafrostu (viac ako 65 %) sa o\u010dak\u00e1va v druhej polovici tohto storo\u010dia, \u010do znamen\u00e1, \u017ee bud\u00face gener\u00e1cie bud\u00fa musie\u0165 spravova\u0165 d\u00f4sledky na\u0161ich s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fdch emisi\u00ed e\u0161te dlho po tom, \u010do dosiahneme \u010dist\u00fa nulu.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43247-026-03189-5_reference.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">\u064a\u0630\u0627\u0643\u0631<\/span><\/a> zd\u00f4raz\u0148uje, \u017ee \u201epriestor na chyby\u201c sa neust\u00e1le zmen\u0161uje. Bez okam\u017eit\u00e9ho a razantn\u00e9ho zn\u00ed\u017eenia emisi\u00ed z fos\u00edlnych pal\u00edv n\u00e1s pr\u00edrodn\u00e9 sp\u00e4tn\u00e9 v\u00e4zby v Arkt\u00edde m\u00f4\u017eu vytla\u010di\u0165 za hranicu, spoza ktorej u\u017e nebude n\u00e1vratu k stabilnej kl\u00edme. Arkt\u00edda u\u017e teraz \u010del\u00ed extr\u00e9mnej \u00farovni naru\u0161enia a jej otep\u013eovanie o 1,5 \u00b0C v glob\u00e1lnom priemere znamen\u00e1 region\u00e1lny n\u00e1rast teploty o viac ako <strong>3 \u00b0C<\/strong>. <em><strong>JRi&amp;CO2AI\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Ot\u00e1zky na zamyslenie pre \u010ditate\u013ea:<\/strong> <em>Ako by mali vl\u00e1dy upravi\u0165 svoje klimatick\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny, ak vieme, \u017ee \u010das\u0165 n\u00e1\u0161ho \u201epovolen\u00e9ho\u201c zne\u010distenia u\u017e dopredu \u201evy\u010derpal\u201c topiaci sa permafrost? Sme pripraven\u00ed na to, \u017ee ciele, ktor\u00e9 sme pova\u017eovali za ambici\u00f3zne, s\u00fa v skuto\u010dnosti minimom pre pre\u017eitie?<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Topenie permafrostu a \u010doraz intenz\u00edvnej\u0161ie po\u017eiare v arktick\u00fdch oblastiach predstavuj\u00fa pre klimatick\u00fa stabilitu plan\u00e9ty ove\u013ea v\u00e4\u010d\u0161iu hrozbu, ne\u017e sa doteraz predpokladalo. Nov\u00fd v\u00fdskum publikovan\u00fd v \u010dasopise Communications Earth &amp; Environment varuje, \u017ee<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38619","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-klimaticka-zmena","category-udrzatelnost_uhlikova-neutralita"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38619","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38619"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38619\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38622,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38619\/revisions\/38622"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38619"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38619"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38619"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}