{"id":38570,"date":"2026-01-16T18:12:31","date_gmt":"2026-01-16T17:12:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/?p=38570"},"modified":"2026-01-16T18:14:10","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T17:14:10","slug":"europa-je-svetovym-epicentrom-nerealistickeho-klimatickeho-optimizmu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/2026\/01\/16\/europa-je-svetovym-epicentrom-nerealistickeho-klimatickeho-optimizmu\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0623\u0648\u0631\u0648\u0628\u0627 \u0647\u064a \u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0624\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u062e\u064a \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0627\u0642\u0639\u064a"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u0628\u064a\u0646\u0645\u0627 \u062a\u064f\u0635\u062f\u0631 \u062a\u0642\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0631 \u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u062d\u0630\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062a\u0632\u0627\u064a\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0628\u0634\u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0638\u0648\u0627\u0647\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0637\u0631\u0641\u0629\u060c \u064a\u0628\u0642\u0649 \u0633\u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062c\u0648\u0632 \u0641\u064a \u062d\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u063a\u0631\u064a\u0628\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0647\u062f\u0648\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0641\u0633\u064a. \u0648\u0645\u0639 \u0630\u0644\u0643\u060c \u0641\u0625\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0644\u064a\u0633 \u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u062a\u0642\u064a\u064a\u0645 \u0639\u0642\u0644\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0644\u0644\u062d\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0642\u060c \u0628\u0644 \u0647\u0648 \u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u0634\u0639\u0648\u0631 \u0639\u0645\u064a\u0642<!--more--> zakorenen\u00e9 kognit\u00edvne skreslenie. Nov\u00e1 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41893-025-01717-3.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">metaanal\u00fdza<\/span><\/a> publikovan\u00e1 v \u010dasopise <em>Nature Sustainability<\/em> odha\u013euje, \u017ee <strong>\u0623\u0648\u0631\u0648\u0628\u0627 \u0647\u064a \u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0624\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u062e\u064a \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0627\u0642\u0639\u064a<\/strong>, \u010do m\u00f4\u017ee paradoxne ochromi\u0165 jej schopnos\u0165 adaptova\u0165 sa na prich\u00e1dzaj\u00face hrozby.<\/p>\n<p>Tento fenom\u00e9n, odborne naz\u00fdvan\u00fd <strong>self-other discrepancy<\/strong> (diskrepancia medzi vn\u00edman\u00edm seba a ostatn\u00fdch), sp\u00f4sobuje, \u017ee jednotlivci systematicky podhodnocuj\u00fa rizik\u00e1, ktor\u00e9 sa t\u00fdkaj\u00fa ich osobne, v porovnan\u00ed s rizikami, ktor\u00fdm \u010delia in\u00ed \u013eudia.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h5><strong>Psychologick\u00fd mechanizmus: \u201eMne sa to nestane\u201c<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>Z\u00e1kladn\u00fdm kame\u0148om tohto probl\u00e9mu je tzv. <strong>overplacement<\/strong> \u2013 forma nadmern\u00e9ho optimizmu, pri ktorej \u013eudia veria, \u017ee s\u00fa vo\u010di negat\u00edvnym udalostiam odolnej\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e priemern\u00fd \u010dlovek. V\u00fdskum, ktor\u00fd syntetizoval \u00fadaje od <strong>70 337 \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edkov<\/strong> zo 17 kraj\u00edn, potvrdil, \u017ee toto skreslenie je takmer univerz\u00e1lne: prejavilo sa v 81 z 83 sk\u00faman\u00fdch s\u00faborov d\u00e1t.<\/p>\n<p>\u013dudia maj\u00fa tendenciu vn\u00edma\u0165 klimatick\u00fa zmenu ako hrozbu, ktor\u00e1 je:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Menej pravdepodobn\u00e1<\/strong> pre ich osobu.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Menej z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e1<\/strong> v dopadoch na ich vlastn\u00fd \u017eivot a dom\u00e1cnos\u0165.<\/li>\n<li>Viac vzdialen\u00e1 v porovnan\u00ed s rizikom, ktor\u00e9mu \u010del\u00ed \u201e\u013eudstvo\u201c ako celok.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Tento kognit\u00edvny filter nie je len nevinnou psychologickou obranou. Predstavuje kritick\u00fa prek\u00e1\u017eku pre verejn\u00fa anga\u017eovanos\u0165, preto\u017ee ak \u013eudia neveria vo svoju vlastn\u00fa zranite\u013enos\u0165, maj\u00fa n\u00edzku motiv\u00e1ciu podporova\u0165 mitiga\u010dn\u00e9 opatrenia alebo investova\u0165 do vlastnej adapt\u00e1cie.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h5><strong>Eur\u00f3psky paradox: N\u00edzke riziko, vysok\u00e1 miera skreslenia<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>Najzar\u00e1\u017eaj\u00facej\u0161\u00edm zisten\u00edm \u0161t\u00fadie je korel\u00e1cia medzi objekt\u00edvnou mierou rizika a intenzitou psychologick\u00e9ho skreslenia. V\u00fdskumn\u00edci rozdelili svetov\u00e9 regi\u00f3ny pod\u013ea ich re\u00e1lnej vystavenosti klimatick\u00fdm hrozb\u00e1m:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>\u00c1zia a Oce\u00e1nia:<\/strong> Regi\u00f3ny s <strong>vysok\u00fdm objekt\u00edvnym rizikom<\/strong> (napr. \u010c\u00edna, Filip\u00edny), ktor\u00e9 s\u00fa dispropor\u010dne zasiahnut\u00e9 extr\u00e9mnym po\u010das\u00edm. Tu je miera skreslenia <strong>najni\u017e\u0161ia<\/strong> (<em>d<\/em> = \u22120.42).<\/li>\n<li><strong>USA:<\/strong> Regi\u00f3n so stredn\u00fdm rizikom a strednou mierou skreslenia (<em>d<\/em> = \u22120.65).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Eur\u00f3pa:<\/strong> Regi\u00f3n, ktor\u00fd je (zatia\u013e) hodnoten\u00fd ako oblas\u0165 s <strong>najni\u017e\u0161\u00edm objekt\u00edvnym rizikom<\/strong>. Pr\u00e1ve tu je v\u0161ak miera nerealistick\u00e9ho optimizmu <strong>najextr\u00e9mnej\u0161ia<\/strong> (<em>d<\/em> = \u22121.20).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u0647\u0630\u0627 <strong>eur\u00f3psky paradox<\/strong> nazna\u010duje, \u017ee relat\u00edvne bezpe\u010die, ktor\u00e9 Eur\u00f3pa doteraz po\u017e\u00edvala, vytvorilo falo\u0161n\u00fd pocit imunity. \u010c\u00edm je prostredie objekt\u00edvne bezpe\u010dnej\u0161ie, t\u00fdm viac maj\u00fa \u013eudia tendenciu veri\u0165, \u017ee klimatick\u00e1 zmena je probl\u00e9mom \u201et\u00fdch druh\u00fdch\u201c.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h5><em><strong>Pre\u010do n\u00e1\u0161 mozog v Eur\u00f3pe \u201ezlyh\u00e1va\u201c?<\/strong><\/em><\/h5>\n<p>Veda pon\u00faka tri hlavn\u00e9 modely, ktor\u00e9 vysvet\u013euj\u00fa, pre\u010do sa takto spr\u00e1vame:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Egocentrizmus:<\/strong> Pri posudzovan\u00ed rizika sa pr\u00edli\u0161 zameriavame na svoje vlastn\u00e9 schopnosti. Ver\u00edme, \u017ee v\u010faka n\u00e1\u0161mu vzdelaniu, bohatstvu alebo technol\u00f3gi\u00e1m v Eur\u00f3pe sme schopn\u00ed zvl\u00e1dnu\u0165 hor\u00fa\u010davy \u010di z\u00e1plavy lep\u0161ie ne\u017e priemern\u00fd \u010dlovek.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Fokalizmus:<\/strong> S\u00fastred\u00edme sa na seba ako na \u201efok\u00e1lny objekt\u201c a prece\u0148ujeme svoju odolnos\u0165, pri\u010dom ignorujeme \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed kontext syst\u00e9mov\u00fdch riz\u00edk.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Selekt\u00edvne porovn\u00e1vanie:<\/strong> Ke\u010f prem\u00fd\u0161\u013eame o \u201ein\u00fdch\u201c, podvedome si vyber\u00e1me vysoko rizikov\u00e9 stereotypy \u2013 napr\u00edklad obyvate\u013eov n\u00edzko polo\u017een\u00fdch ostrovov alebo rozvojov\u00fdch kraj\u00edn. T\u00fdm, \u017ee sa porovn\u00e1vame s najzranite\u013enej\u0161\u00edmi, na\u0161e vlastn\u00e9 riziko sa n\u00e1m zd\u00e1 zanedbate\u013en\u00e9.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h5><strong>Klimatick\u00e1 zmena ako abstraktn\u00fd nepriate\u013e<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>\u0160t\u00fadia tie\u017e uk\u00e1zala, \u017ee miera skreslenia dramaticky rastie s <strong>abstraktnos\u0165ou referen\u010dnej skupiny<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Ke\u010f sa Eur\u00f3pan porovn\u00e1va so svoj\u00edm <strong>susedom<\/strong>, rozdiel vo vn\u00edman\u00ed rizika je pomerne mal\u00fd (<em>d<\/em> = \u22120.28).<\/li>\n<li>Ke\u010f sa v\u0161ak porovn\u00e1va so <strong>spoluob\u010danmi<\/strong> alebo s <strong>cel\u00fdm \u013eudstvom<\/strong>, priepas\u0165 sa prehlbuje (<em>d<\/em> = \u22120.72 pre \u013eudstvo).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Tento jav, zn\u00e1my ako <strong>generalized group account<\/strong>, nazna\u010duje, \u017ee vn\u00edmame klimatick\u00fa zmenu ako glob\u00e1lnu katastrofu pre \u013eudsk\u00fa rasu, ale nie ako hrozbu pre na\u0161u vlastn\u00fa ulicu. Tento nes\u00falad je kritick\u00fd pre politikov: je \u013eahk\u00e9 s\u00fahlasi\u0165 so z\u00e1chranou plan\u00e9ty v teoretickej rovine, ale ove\u013ea \u0165a\u017e\u0161ie prija\u0165 nepopul\u00e1rne opatrenia (napr. uhl\u00edkov\u00e9 dane), ak never\u00edme, \u017ee na\u0161a vlastn\u00e1 dom\u00e1cnos\u0165 je v ohrozen\u00ed.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h5><strong>D\u00f4sledky pre bud\u00facnos\u0165: Od optimizmu k ne\u010dinnosti<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>Nerealistick\u00fd optimizmus nie je len \u0161tatistickou kuriozitou; m\u00e1 re\u00e1lne doplady na bezpe\u010dnos\u0165. Skreslen\u00e9 vn\u00edmanie rizika vedie k <strong>maladapt\u00e1cii<\/strong> \u2013 teda k nedostato\u010dnej pr\u00edprave na nevyhnutn\u00e9 zmeny. Ak si obyvatelia Eur\u00f3py myslia, \u017ee vlny hor\u00fa\u010dav alebo z\u00e1plavy zasiahnu len susedn\u00e9 krajiny alebo marginalizovan\u00e9 skupiny, nebud\u00fa tla\u010di\u0165 na budovanie odolnej infra\u0161trukt\u00fary ani meni\u0165 svoje spotrebite\u013esk\u00e9 spr\u00e1vanie.<\/p>\n<p>Existuj\u00fa v\u0161ak v\u00fdnimky, ktor\u00e9 ukazuj\u00fa cestu von. V\u00fdskum zaznamenal pr\u00edpady, kedy sa optimizmus zmenil na <strong>\u201enerealistick\u00fd pesimizmus\u201c<\/strong>. Ide najm\u00e4 o \u013eud\u00ed s <strong>priamou sk\u00fasenos\u0165ou<\/strong> s katastrofou, ako s\u00fa farm\u00e1ri pracuj\u00faci v oblastiach n\u00e1chyln\u00fdch na extr\u00e9mne po\u010dasie. Ich osobn\u00e1 sk\u00fasenos\u0165 prebila kognit\u00edvne skreslenie a prin\u00fatila ich vidie\u0165 realitu bez ru\u017eov\u00fdch okuliarov.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h5><strong>Ako zmeni\u0165 komunik\u00e1ciu riz\u00edk?<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>Autori <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41893-025-01717-3.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a<\/span><\/a> navrhuj\u00fa z\u00e1sadn\u00fa zmenu v tom, ako o kl\u00edme hovor\u00edme. Ak chceme prekona\u0165 eur\u00f3psky klimatick\u00fd optimizmus, mus\u00edme:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Lokalizova\u0165 hrozbu:<\/strong> Namiesto hovorenia o dopadoch na \u201e\u013eudstvo\u201c alebo \u201ebud\u00face gener\u00e1cie\u201c (referenty, ktor\u00e9 zvy\u0161uj\u00fa skreslenie), by sme mali komunikova\u0165 rizik\u00e1 pre <strong>konkr\u00e9tne mest\u00e1 a komunity<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Uv\u00e1dza\u0165 z\u00e1kladn\u00e9 l\u00ednie rizika:<\/strong> Komunik\u00e1cia by nemala len porovn\u00e1va\u0165 (napr. \u201este v men\u0161om riziku ako v \u00c1zii\u201c), ale jasne definova\u0165 <strong>absol\u00fatne riziko<\/strong> pre jednotlivca na z\u00e1klade jeho polohy a \u017eivotn\u00e9ho \u0161t\u00fdlu.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Vyu\u017e\u00edva\u0165 konkr\u00e9tne pr\u00edklady:<\/strong> Em\u00f3cie a predstavy o konkr\u00e9tnych extr\u00e9mnych javoch (hor\u00fa\u010davy, such\u00e1) funguj\u00fa lep\u0161ie ne\u017e abstraktn\u00e9 pojmy ako \u201eglob\u00e1lne otep\u013eovanie\u201c.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Eur\u00f3pa sa nach\u00e1dza v nebezpe\u010dnej psychologickej pasci. Jej doteraj\u0161ia relat\u00edvna stabilita sa stala podhub\u00edm pre najsilnej\u0161ie klimatick\u00e9 skreslenie na svete. K\u00fdm si neprizn\u00e1me, \u017ee sme rovnako zranite\u013en\u00ed ako zvy\u0161ok sveta, n\u00e1\u0161 \u201eoptimizmus\u201c zostane len brzdou nevyhnutnej transform\u00e1cie. Ako ukazuje veda, prv\u00fdm krokom k z\u00e1chrane nie je len technol\u00f3gia, ale predov\u0161etk\u00fdm <strong>strhnutie kognit\u00edvnej opony<\/strong>, ktor\u00e1 n\u00e1m br\u00e1ni vidie\u0165 riziko pred na\u0161imi vlastn\u00fdmi dverami. <em><strong>JRi&amp;CO2AI<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0628\u064a\u0646\u0645\u0627 \u062a\u064f\u0635\u062f\u0631 \u062a\u0642\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0631 \u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u062d\u0630\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062a\u0632\u0627\u064a\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0628\u0634\u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0638\u0648\u0627\u0647\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0637\u0631\u0641\u0629\u060c \u064a\u0628\u0642\u0649 \u0633\u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062c\u0648\u0632 \u0641\u064a \u062d\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u063a\u0631\u064a\u0628\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0647\u062f\u0648\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0641\u0633\u064a. \u0648\u0645\u0639 \u0630\u0644\u0643\u060c \u0641\u0625\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0644\u064a\u0633 \u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u062a\u0642\u064a\u064a\u0645 \u0639\u0642\u0644\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0644\u0644\u062d\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0642\u060c \u0628\u0644 \u0647\u0648 \u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u0634\u0639\u0648\u0631 \u0639\u0645\u064a\u0642<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38570","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-klimaticka-zmena"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38570","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38570"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38570\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38573,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38570\/revisions\/38573"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38570"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38570"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38570"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}