{"id":38124,"date":"2025-11-04T19:08:18","date_gmt":"2025-11-04T18:08:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/?p=38124"},"modified":"2025-11-04T19:20:00","modified_gmt":"2025-11-04T18:20:00","slug":"prekrocenie-15-c-preco-na-tom-zalezi-a-ake-su-nezvratne-dosledky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/2025\/11\/04\/prekrocenie-15-c-preco-na-tom-zalezi-a-ake-su-nezvratne-dosledky\/","title":{"rendered":"\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0648\u0632 1.5 \u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0645\u0626\u0648\u064a\u0629: \u0644\u0645\u0627\u0630\u0627 \u064a\u064f\u0639\u062f \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0645\u0647\u0645\u0627\u064b \u0648\u0645\u0627 \u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0648\u0627\u0642\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0644\u0627 \u0631\u062c\u0639\u0629 \u0641\u064a\u0647\u0627\u061f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0628\u0639\u062f \u0645\u0631\u0648\u0631 \u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0642\u0631\u0628 \u0645\u0646 \u0639\u0642\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062f \u0627\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0633\u060c \u0631\u0643\u0632\u062a \u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u062e \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0625\u0628\u0642\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u062d\u0631\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0633\u0637\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u062f\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u062f\u062f\u0629. 1.5 \u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0645\u0626\u0648\u064a\u0629<\/strong>. \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u063a\u0645 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0634\u0627\u0637 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u0627\u0648\u0636\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062a\u0639\u062f\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0641 \u0628\u0634\u0623\u0646 \u062e\u0641\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0628\u0639\u0627\u062b\u0627\u062a je teraz nevyhnutn\u00e9, \u017ee tento cie\u013e nedosiahneme \u2013 skuto\u010dnos\u0165, na ktor\u00fa jasne pouk\u00e1zal aj gener\u00e1lny tajomn\u00edk OSN Ant\u00f3nio Gutierres. Organiz\u00e1cia Spojen\u00fdch n\u00e1rodov (OSN) varovala, \u017ee svet nevyhnutne prekro\u010d\u00ed t\u00fato \u201e\u010derven\u00fa hranicu\u201c, pravdepodobne u\u017e v nasleduj\u00facich desiatich rokoch, z d\u00f4vodu neust\u00e1leho odkladania v\u00fdrazn\u00e9ho zni\u017eovania emisi\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u010co znamen\u00e1 \u201eprekro\u010denie limitu\u201c v klimatickom \u017earg\u00f3ne?<\/strong><\/p>\n

V be\u017enej re\u010di by prekro\u010denie limitu znamenalo jednoduch\u00e9 prekro\u010denie prahovej hodnoty. V \u017earg\u00f3ne Medzivl\u00e1dneho panelu o zmene kl\u00edmy (IPCC) sa v\u0161ak \u201eprekro\u010denie limitu\u201c (overshoot) vz\u0165ahuje na scen\u00e1re, ktor\u00e9 nielen prekra\u010duj\u00fa \u0161pecifick\u00fa priemern\u00fa glob\u00e1lnu teplotu, ale zah\u0155\u0148aj\u00fa aj cestu k n\u00e1vratu pod 1,5 \u00b0C<\/strong> do konca storo\u010dia.<\/p>\n

Hoci je tento koncept n\u00e1vratu navrhovan\u00fd, t\u00e1to trajekt\u00f3ria nie je v \u017eiadnom pr\u00edpade zaru\u010den\u00e1. Vy\u017eaduje si agres\u00edvne opatrenia nielen na zn\u00ed\u017eenie emisi\u00ed, ale aj na zn\u00ed\u017eenie mno\u017estva plynov zachyt\u00e1vaj\u00facich teplo u\u017e pr\u00edtomn\u00fdch v atmosf\u00e9re.<\/p>\n

Nezvratn\u00e9 rizik\u00e1 pri do\u010dasnom prekro\u010den\u00ed<\/strong><\/p>\n

Prekro\u010denie cie\u013eovej teploty 1,5 \u00b0C, aj ke\u010f len do\u010dasn\u00e9, dramaticky zvy\u0161uje riziko v\u00e1\u017enych a niekedy nezvratn\u00fdch dopadov.<\/p>\n

Predpoklad\u00e1 sa, \u017ee extr\u00e9mne udalosti, ako s\u00fa smrte\u013en\u00e9 vlny hor\u00fa\u010dav a extr\u00e9mne zr\u00e1\u017eky, sa po\u010das tohto prekro\u010denia bud\u00fa na\u010falej zvy\u0161ova\u0165 na frekvencii a intenzite. Obzvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 v\u00fdrazn\u00fd je vplyv pol stup\u0148a otep\u013eovania na vysoko citliv\u00e9 ekosyst\u00e9my. Napr\u00edklad koralov\u00e9 \u00fatesy, ktor\u00e9 patria medzi najbiodiverznej\u0161ie ekosyst\u00e9my, sa pri otep\u013eovan\u00ed o 2 \u00b0C predpokladaj\u00fa zn\u00ed\u017ei\u0165 o viac ako 99 %, \u010d\u00edm by sa tieto kritick\u00e9 ekosyst\u00e9my z plan\u00e9ty funk\u010dne odstr\u00e1nili. T\u00e1to strata by bola nezvratn\u00e1 a mala by \u010falekosiahle d\u00f4sledky pre biodiverzitu a potravinov\u00fa bezpe\u010dnos\u0165.<\/p>\n

\u010eal\u0161\u00edm pr\u00edkladom nezvratn\u00e9ho dopadu je zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 pravdepodobnos\u0165 topenia \u013eadov\u00fdch \u0161t\u00edtov a straty \u013eadovcov, \u010do prispieva k zr\u00fdch\u013euj\u00facemu sa viacstoro\u010dn\u00e9mu st\u00fapaniu hladiny mor\u00ed<\/strong>. Mal\u00e9 ostrovn\u00e9 n\u00e1rody m\u00f4\u017eu v d\u00f4sledku toho strati\u0165 cel\u00e9 svoje \u00fazemie.<\/p>\n

Prekro\u010denie limitu tie\u017e zvy\u0161uje pravdepodobnos\u0165 dosiahnutia kritick\u00fdch bodov zlomu, ako je oslabenie alebo kolaps oce\u00e1nskych pr\u00fadov, napr\u00edklad Atlantickej meridion\u00e1lnej prevr\u00e1tenej cirkul\u00e1cie (AMOC). Tak\u00fdto kolaps by priniesol z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9 d\u00f4sledky, vr\u00e1tane zmeny glob\u00e1lnych poveternostn\u00fdch vzorcov. Aj keby sa teploty nesk\u00f4r vr\u00e1tili pod 1,5 \u00b0C, \u00fa\u010dinok prekro\u010denia t\u00fdchto bodov zlomu by bol nezvratn\u00fd.<\/p>\n

Potreba negat\u00edvnych emisi\u00ed a nedostato\u010dn\u00e9 opatrenia<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dosta\u0165 teploty sp\u00e4\u0165 pod 1,5 \u00b0C je neuverite\u013ene \u0165a\u017ek\u00e9. Nesta\u010d\u00ed len zn\u00ed\u017ei\u0165 emisie na nulu; svet mus\u00ed prejs\u0165 na \u010dist\u00e9 negat\u00edvne emisie<\/strong>, \u010do si vy\u017eaduje rozsiahle odstra\u0148ovanie oxidu uhli\u010dit\u00e9ho (CDR) u\u017e pr\u00edtomn\u00e9ho v atmosf\u00e9re.<\/p>\n

Rozsah potrebn\u00e9ho \u00fasilia je obrovsk\u00fd. S\u00fahrnn\u00e1 spr\u00e1va IPCC z roku 2023 uv\u00e1dza, \u017ee na zn\u00ed\u017eenie tepl\u00f4t o 0,1 \u00b0C po prekro\u010den\u00ed limitu by bolo potrebn\u00e9 \u010dist\u00e9 negat\u00edvne emisie vo v\u00fd\u0161ke 220 gigaton CO2. Pre porovnanie, celkov\u00e9 emisie fos\u00edlnych pal\u00edv z troch najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edch emitentov (\u010c\u00edna, USA a India) predstavovali v roku 2024 pribli\u017ene 20 GtCO2. Hoci CDR zah\u0155\u0148a konven\u010dn\u00e9 met\u00f3dy, ako je zales\u0148ovanie, aj nov\u00e9 technol\u00f3gie (napr. priame zachyt\u00e1vanie vzduchu), svet v s\u00fa\u010dasnosti odstra\u0148uje len 2 GtCO2 ro\u010dne, pri\u010dom v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina z\u00e1vis\u00ed od lesn\u00edctva, ktor\u00e9 je zranite\u013en\u00e9 vo\u010di suchu a lesn\u00fdm po\u017eiarom.<\/p>\n

Sme v tomto bode z ve\u013ekej \u010dasti kv\u00f4li politick\u00fdm l\u00eddrom, ktor\u00ed doteraz neprijali dostato\u010dn\u00e9 opatrenia, a kv\u00f4li odvetviu fos\u00edlnych pal\u00edv, ktor\u00e9 blokuje kroky. Len asi tretina zo zmluvn\u00fdch str\u00e1n Par\u00ed\u017eskej dohody predlo\u017eila svoje aktualizovan\u00e9 n\u00e1rodne stanoven\u00e9 pr\u00edspevky (NDC) do term\u00ednu vlani v septembri. Pl\u00e1ny, ktor\u00e9 boli predlo\u017een\u00e9, aj keby sa plne implementovali, znamenaj\u00fa obmedzenie glob\u00e1lneho otep\u013eovania na 2,3 \u00b0C a\u017e 2,5 \u00b0C, v z\u00e1vislosti od splnenia podmienen\u00fdch s\u013eubov.<\/p>\n

Hoci realita prekro\u010denia limitu prin\u00e1\u0161a sm\u00fatok, rozsah a trvanie tohto prekro\u010denia je st\u00e1le v na\u0161ej moci. Je naliehav\u00e9, aby ak\u00e9ko\u013evek prekro\u010denie bolo minim\u00e1lne a do\u010dasn\u00e9<\/strong>. Ak vl\u00e1dy splnia svoje z\u00e1v\u00e4zky t\u00fdkaj\u00face sa strednodob\u00fdch a nulov\u00fdch \u010dist\u00fdch emisi\u00ed, glob\u00e1lne otep\u013eovanie by sa mohlo zastavi\u0165 na 1,9 \u00b0C do roku 2100, \u010d\u00edm by zostal dosiahnute\u013en\u00fd limit 2 \u00b0C.<\/p>\n

Prekro\u010denie 1,5 \u00b0C p\u00f4sob\u00ed ako dlhov\u00fd \u00fapis: nezvratn\u00e9 dopady s\u00fa \u00farokom, ktor\u00fd budeme musie\u0165 splati\u0165, a na\u0161a schopnos\u0165 vr\u00e1ti\u0165 sa k bezpe\u010dn\u00e9mu limitu z\u00e1vis\u00ed od okam\u017eit\u00e9ho nasadenia n\u00e1kladn\u00fdch a n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00fdch technol\u00f3gi\u00ed, ktor\u00e9 sme doteraz nedok\u00e1zali realizova\u0165. \u062c\u064a\u0647 \u0622\u0631 \u0622\u064a<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Takmer desa\u0165ro\u010die po prijat\u00ed Par\u00ed\u017eskej dohody sa klimatick\u00e9 hnutie s\u00fastredilo na udr\u017eanie n\u00e1rastu priemernej glob\u00e1lnej teploty povrchu pod hranicou 1,5 \u00b0C. Napriek aktivizmu a multilater\u00e1lnym rokovaniam o zni\u017eovan\u00ed emisi\u00ed<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38124","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-klimaticka-zmena","category-ipcc"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38124","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38124"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38124\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38124"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38124"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38124"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}