{"id":38076,"date":"2025-10-27T19:04:03","date_gmt":"2025-10-27T18:04:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/?p=38076"},"modified":"2025-10-27T19:04:49","modified_gmt":"2025-10-27T18:04:49","slug":"scenar-2040-komplexna-analyza-buducich-ciest-spolocnej-polnohospodarskej-politiky-eu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/2025\/10\/27\/scenar-2040-komplexna-analyza-buducich-ciest-spolocnej-polnohospodarskej-politiky-eu\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0633\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0648 2040: \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0634\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0631\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0627\u062a\u062d\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0631\u0648\u0628\u064a"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu\/repository\/handle\/JRC142503\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">\u064a\u0630\u0627\u0643\u0631 <strong>\u0633\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0648 2040<\/strong><\/span><\/a> \u064a\u0642\u062f\u0645 \u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0628\u062d\u0627\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0628\u0639 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0641\u0648\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0631\u0648\u0628\u064a\u0629 (JRC) <strong>\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0634\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0633\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0648\u0647\u0627\u062a &quot;\u0645\u0627\u0630\u0627 \u0644\u0648&quot; \u0648\u0627\u0633\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0637\u0627\u0642\u201e<\/strong> \u0641\u064a\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u062a\u0639\u0644\u0642 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0631\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643\u0629 <!--more-->politikou (SPP) na po\u013enohospod\u00e1rsky sektor E\u00da a jeho \u0161ir\u0161ie prostredie. Cie\u013eom tejto pr\u00e1ce je <strong>obohati\u0165 politick\u00e9 diskusie<\/strong> o bud\u00facnosti SPP poskytnut\u00edm <strong>kvantitat\u00edvnych poznatkov<\/strong> o v\u0161eobecn\u00fdch d\u00f4sledkoch alternat\u00edvnych trajekt\u00f3ri\u00ed SPP. Anal\u00fdza vych\u00e1dza z Po\u013enohospod\u00e1rskeho v\u00fdh\u013eadu E\u00da z roku 2023 a s\u00fa\u010dasnej \u0161trukt\u00fary n\u00e1rodn\u00fdch strategick\u00fdch pl\u00e1nov SPP. Metodika vyu\u017e\u00edva kombin\u00e1ciu troch agroekonomick\u00fdch simula\u010dn\u00fdch modelov, vr\u00e1tane MAGNET, CAPRI a IFM-CAP.<\/p>\n<p>\u0160t\u00fadia modeluje tri hlavn\u00e9 scen\u00e1re s cie\u013eom presk\u00fama\u0165 zmeny podpory:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>&#8222;Produktivita a invest\u00edcie&#8220; (Prod&amp;Inv):<\/strong> Smeruje podporu k <strong>zvy\u0161ovaniu produktivity a konkurencieschopnosti<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>&#8222;\u017divotn\u00e9 prostredie a kl\u00edma&#8220; (Env&amp;Clim):<\/strong> Presmeruje podporu k <strong>intervenci\u00e1m zameran\u00fdm viac na \u017eivotn\u00e9 prostredie a kl\u00edmu<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Kontrafaktu\u00e1lny scen\u00e1r NoCAP:<\/strong> Simuluje <strong>zru\u0161enie cel\u00e9ho r\u00e1mca SPP<\/strong> vr\u00e1tane platieb a noriem dobr\u00e9ho po\u013enohospod\u00e1rskeho a environment\u00e1lneho stavu (GAEC). Hoci NoCAP nie je realistick\u00e1 politick\u00e1 trajekt\u00f3ria, poskytuje u\u017eito\u010dn\u00fd referen\u010dn\u00fd bod pre pos\u00fadenie ekonomick\u00fdch, soci\u00e1lnych a environment\u00e1lnych vplyvov.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><strong>Z\u00e1sadn\u00e1 \u00faloha SPP a scen\u00e1r NoCAP<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>V\u00fdsledky \u0161t\u00fadie <strong>pod\u010diarkuj\u00fa z\u00e1sadn\u00fa \u00falohu SPP<\/strong> v po\u013enohospod\u00e1rskom sektore E\u00da a jeho \u0161ir\u0161\u00edch soci\u00e1lno-ekonomick\u00fdch a environment\u00e1lnych prepojeniach. Scen\u00e1r NoCAP nazna\u010duje, \u017ee zru\u0161enie SPP by viedlo k <strong>zna\u010dn\u00fdm ekonomick\u00fdm, environment\u00e1lnym a soci\u00e1lnym vplyvom<\/strong>, s v\u00fdraznou heterogenitou medzi farmami, regi\u00f3nmi a sektormi. <strong>Pr\u00edjmy po\u013enohospod\u00e1rskych podnikov by v\u00fdrazne klesli<\/strong>, \u010do by ne\u00famerne ovplyvnilo men\u0161ie farmy (ktor\u00e9 za\u017e\u00edvaj\u00fa najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed relat\u00edvny pokles pr\u00edjmu). Celkov\u00e1 po\u013enohospod\u00e1rska produkcia E\u00da by sa v\u00fdrazne zn\u00ed\u017eila a <strong>vyu\u017e\u00edvan\u00e1 po\u013enohospod\u00e1rska plocha (VPP) by klesla<\/strong>. Spotrebite\u013esk\u00e9 ceny by r\u00e1stli, \u010do by <strong>zvy\u0161ovalo podiel v\u00fddavkov dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed na potraviny<\/strong>. Z environment\u00e1lneho h\u013eadiska, hoci sa emisie sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plynov z po\u013enohospod\u00e1rstva E\u00da zni\u017euj\u00fa v d\u00f4sledku poklesu produkcie, <strong>\u00faniky emisi\u00ed<\/strong> (presun produkcie mimo E\u00da) by viedli k <strong>\u010dist\u00e9mu glob\u00e1lnemu n\u00e1rastu emisi\u00ed<\/strong> o 8,2 MtCO2e.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Kontrastn\u00e9 trajekt\u00f3rie a \u0161truktur\u00e1lne kompromisy<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Dva alternat\u00edvne scen\u00e1re SPP odha\u013euj\u00fa kontrastn\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky v s\u00falade s ich pr\u00edslu\u0161n\u00fdmi narat\u00edvmi.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Scen\u00e1r Prod&amp;Inv<\/strong> vedie k <strong>vy\u0161\u0161ej konkurencieschopnosti a produkcii<\/strong>, poh\u00e1\u0148anej vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi invest\u00edciami a lep\u0161\u00edmi v\u00fdnosmi. To <strong>zvy\u0161uje sebesta\u010dnos\u0165 a zlep\u0161uje obchodn\u00fa bilanciu E\u00da<\/strong>. Av\u0161ak t\u00e1to expanzia m\u00f4\u017ee <strong>zintenz\u00edvni\u0165 environment\u00e1lne tlaky<\/strong>, \u010do sa prejav\u00ed miernym zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm prebytkov dus\u00edka a emisi\u00ed sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plynov E\u00da. Napriek tomu, \u017ee emisie E\u00da rast\u00fa, \u010dist\u00e9 glob\u00e1lne emisie sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plynov <strong>klesaj\u00fa<\/strong>, preto\u017ee emisie efekt\u00edvnej\u0161ia produkcia E\u00da nahr\u00e1dza menej efekt\u00edvnu produkciu mimo E\u00da (\u00fanik emisi\u00ed je pr\u00ednosom).<\/p>\n<p>\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0643\u0633 \u062a\u0645\u0627\u0645\u0627\u060c, <strong>scen\u00e1r Env&amp;Clim<\/strong> kladie <strong>v\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed d\u00f4raz na environment\u00e1lnu udr\u017eate\u013enos\u0165<\/strong>, \u010do m\u00e1 za n\u00e1sledok <strong>ni\u017e\u0161iu produktivitu, zn\u00ed\u017eenie \u00farovne produkcie v E\u00da a vy\u0161\u0161ie ceny<\/strong>. Hoci tento scen\u00e1r dosahuje <strong>environment\u00e1lne zlep\u0161enia v E\u00da<\/strong> (napr. ni\u017e\u0161ie emisie GHG a zn\u00ed\u017een\u00e9 prebytky dus\u00edka), m\u00f4\u017ee zv\u00fd\u0161i\u0165 glob\u00e1lne v\u00fdzvy, ke\u010f\u017ee <strong>\u00faniky emisi\u00ed<\/strong> op\u00e4\u0165 ved\u00fa k vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm emisi\u00e1m GHG z po\u013enohospod\u00e1rstva mimo E\u00da. Silnej\u0161ia podpora extenz\u00edvnej\u0161\u00edch po\u013enohospod\u00e1rskych postupov v tomto scen\u00e1ri vedie k <strong>zv\u00fd\u0161eniu diverzity plod\u00edn<\/strong> a zni\u017euje vysokointenz\u00edvne po\u013enohospod\u00e1rstvo.<\/p>\n<p>Tieto zistenia ilustruj\u00fa <strong>kritick\u00e9 \u0161truktur\u00e1lne kompromisy medzi intenzifik\u00e1ciou a extenzifik\u00e1ciou<\/strong>. Zatia\u013e \u010do politick\u00e9 opatrenia m\u00f4\u017eu v\u00fdznamne ovplyvni\u0165 dynamiku cien a v\u00fdroby, najm\u00e4 v sektoroch s dlh\u0161\u00edmi v\u00fdrobn\u00fdmi cyklami alebo vy\u0161\u0161ou priamou podporou, <strong>z\u00e1kladn\u00e9 trhov\u00e9 faktory<\/strong> (ako elasticita dopytu a efekt\u00edvnos\u0165 v\u00fdroby) zost\u00e1vaj\u00fa <strong>prim\u00e1rnymi determinantmi v\u00fdsledkov v\u00fdroby<\/strong>. JRC preto zd\u00f4raz\u0148uje, \u017ee je potrebn\u00fd <strong>prepracovan\u00fd n\u00e1vrh polit\u00edk<\/strong>, ktor\u00fd \u00fa\u010dinne zoh\u013ead\u0148uje r\u00f4znorod\u00e9 potreby v r\u00e1mci E\u00da a berie do \u00favahy \u0161ir\u0161ie glob\u00e1lne d\u00f4sledky. <em><strong>\u062c\u064a\u0647 \u0622\u0631 \u0622\u064a<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0160t\u00fadia Scen\u00e1r 2040 Spolo\u010dn\u00e9ho v\u00fdskumn\u00e9ho centra (JRC) Eur\u00f3pskej komisie poskytuje komplexn\u00fa anal\u00fdzu potenci\u00e1lnych vplyvov \u0161irok\u00fdch scen\u00e1rov \u201e\u010do keby\u201c s\u00favisiacich so Spolo\u010dnou po\u013enohospod\u00e1rskou<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-lca_esg_ghg_csddd_csrd_iso_flr"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38076","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38076"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38076\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38076"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38076"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38076"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}