{"id":37534,"date":"2025-09-02T20:00:07","date_gmt":"2025-09-02T18:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/?p=37534"},"modified":"2025-09-02T20:01:49","modified_gmt":"2025-09-02T18:01:49","slug":"projekcie-zranitelnosti-voci-klimatickym-zmenam-predstavenie-databazy-gvi-projections-2020-2100","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/2025\/09\/02\/projekcie-zranitelnosti-voci-klimatickym-zmenam-predstavenie-databazy-gvi-projections-2020-2100\/","title":{"rendered":"Projekcie zranite\u013enosti vo\u010di klimatick\u00fdm zmen\u00e1m: Predstavenie datab\u00e1zy GVI Projections (2020 \u2013 2100)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u062c\u062f\u064a\u062f <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41597-025-05732-z.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">datab\u00e1za<\/span><\/a> GVI Projections Database predstavuje <strong>projekcie socioekonomickej zranite\u013enosti pre takmer v\u0161etky krajiny sveta v obdob\u00ed rokov 2020 a\u017e 2100<\/strong>. T\u00e1to datab\u00e1za je cenn\u00fdm zdrojom pre monitorovanie \u013eudsk\u00fdch komponentov zranite\u013en<!--more-->osti vo\u010di klimatick\u00fdm zmen\u00e1m, pr\u00edrodn\u00fdm katastrof\u00e1m a in\u00fdm otrasom. Sl\u00fa\u017ei na pos\u00fadenie, ako s\u00fa spolo\u010dnosti a geografick\u00e9 oblasti ovplyvnen\u00e9 vonkaj\u0161\u00edmi stresormi a ak\u00e1 je ich schopnos\u0165 reagova\u0165 na ne. Datab\u00e1za pracuje s tromi Spolo\u010dn\u00fdmi Socioekonomick\u00fdmi Cestami (SSP): scen\u00e1rom \u201ezelenej cesty\u201c (SSP1), \u201estrednej cesty\u201c (SSP2) a \u201edrsnej cesty\u201c (SSP3).<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u010co je Index Zranite\u013enosti GDL (GVI)?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Index GDL Vulnerability Index (GVI) je <strong>kompozitn\u00fd index<\/strong>, ktor\u00fd zhr\u0148uje sedem hlavn\u00fdch socioekonomick\u00fdch rozmerov zranite\u013enosti do jedn\u00e9ho \u010d\u00edsla pomocou adit\u00edvneho vzorca. GVI opera\u010dne premie\u0148a pilier zranite\u013enosti r\u00e1mca riz\u00edk Medzivl\u00e1dneho panelu pre zmenu kl\u00edmy (IPCC), integruj\u00fac socioekonomick\u00fa zranite\u013enos\u0165 s klimatick\u00fdmi hazardmi a expoz\u00edciou. GVI je navrhnut\u00fd tak, aby sa s\u00fastredil v\u00fdhradne na \u013eudsk\u00e9 a spolo\u010densk\u00e9 aspekty zranite\u013enosti.<\/p>\n<p>Medzi sedem k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdch tematick\u00fdch oblast\u00ed, ktor\u00e9 GVI zah\u0155\u0148a, patria:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f:<\/strong> Miera HDP na obyvate\u013ea a chudoba (podiel obyvate\u013estva pod hranicou 3,65 USD denne) odr\u00e1\u017eaj\u00fa schopnos\u0165 ekonomick\u00fdch akt\u00e9rov pripravi\u0165 sa a vyrovna\u0165 sa s klimatick\u00fdmi udalos\u0165ami.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Vzdelanie:<\/strong> Priemern\u00fd po\u010det rokov \u0161kolskej doch\u00e1dzky dospel\u00e9ho obyvate\u013estva (25+ rokov) nazna\u010duje \u00farove\u0148 pripravenosti a schopnosti reagova\u0165 na katastrofy.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Zdravie:<\/strong> D\u013a\u017eka \u017eivota pri naroden\u00ed sl\u00fa\u017ei ako indik\u00e1tor kvality \u017eivota a zdravotnej starostlivosti, ktor\u00e1 ovplyv\u0148uje zranite\u013enos\u0165 popul\u00e1cie.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Rod:<\/strong> Index rodov\u00e9ho rozvoja (GDI) meria rodov\u00e9 nerovnosti, ktor\u00e9 m\u00f4\u017eu zosilni\u0165 zranite\u013enos\u0165 \u017eien a diev\u010dat v kontexte klimatick\u00fdch zmien.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Infra\u0161trukt\u00fara:<\/strong> Pr\u00edstup k \u010distej pitnej vode, elektrine a mobiln\u00fdm telef\u00f3nom je k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fd pre pripravenos\u0165 a organiz\u00e1ciu reakci\u00ed na kr\u00edzy.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Spr\u00e1va vec\u00ed verejn\u00fdch:<\/strong> Hodnoten\u00e1 indexmi Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) Svetovej banky, ktor\u00e9 odr\u00e1\u017eaj\u00fa kvalitu riadenia a schopnos\u0165 implementova\u0165 adapt\u00edvne strat\u00e9gie.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Demografia:<\/strong> Vekov\u00e1 \u0161trukt\u00fara (miera z\u00e1vislosti) a urbaniz\u00e1cia (podiel obyvate\u013estva v mest\u00e1ch) ovplyv\u0148uj\u00fa biologick\u00fa citlivos\u0165 a dostupnos\u0165 zdrojov v pr\u00edpade n\u00fadze.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>GVI sa odli\u0161uje od in\u00fdch zaveden\u00fdch indexov (ako ND-GAIN alebo INFORM) svojou <strong>flexibilitou a d\u00e1tovo orientovan\u00fdm pr\u00edstupom<\/strong>, ktor\u00fd je menej z\u00e1visl\u00fd od expertn\u00e9ho \u00fasudku. V\u010faka jednotn\u00e9mu vzorcu s\u00fa sk\u00f3re GVI porovnate\u013en\u00e9 medzi r\u00f4znymi oblas\u0165ami a v \u010dase. Valid\u00e1cia preuk\u00e1zala vysok\u00e9 korel\u00e1cie s t\u00fdmito sofistikovanej\u0161\u00edmi indexmi, \u010do potvrdzuje jeho spo\u013eahlivos\u0165.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Spolo\u010dn\u00e9 Socioekonomick\u00e9 Cesty (SSPs)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Projekcie GVI s\u00fa vypracovan\u00e9 pozd\u013a\u017e troch Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), ktor\u00e9 s\u00fa narat\u00edvami opisuj\u00facimi <strong>pravdepodobn\u00e9 socioekonomick\u00e9 bud\u00facnosti<\/strong> a s nimi spojen\u00e9 v\u00fdzvy pre adapt\u00e1ciu a zmier\u0148ovanie klimatick\u00fdch zmien.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>SSP1 (\u201ezelen\u00e1 cesta\u201c):<\/strong> Scen\u00e1r udr\u017eate\u013en\u00e9ho rozvoja, charakterizovan\u00fd zlep\u0161ovan\u00edm environment\u00e1lnych podmienok, rast\u00facimi invest\u00edciami do vzdel\u00e1vania a zdravia, klesaj\u00facou nerovnos\u0165ou a zameran\u00edm na \u013eudsk\u00e9 blaho.<\/li>\n<li><strong>SSP2 (\u201estredn\u00e1 cesta\u201c):<\/strong> Predstavuje pokra\u010dovanie historick\u00fdch vzorcov vo v\u00fdvoji, s nerovnomern\u00fdm ekonomick\u00fdm rastom a pomal\u00fdm pokrokom smerom k cie\u013eom udr\u017eate\u013en\u00e9ho rozvoja.<\/li>\n<li><strong>SSP3 (\u201edrsn\u00e1 cesta\u201c):<\/strong> Scen\u00e1r s vysok\u00fdmi v\u00fdzvami pre adapt\u00e1ciu a zmier\u0148ovanie. Krajiny sa s\u00fastre\u010fuj\u00fa na n\u00e1rodn\u00e9 z\u00e1ujmy, \u010do vedie k obmedzenej medzin\u00e1rodnej spolupr\u00e1ci, poklesu invest\u00edci\u00ed a zhor\u0161ovaniu nerovnost\u00ed.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Metodol\u00f3gia a kon\u0161trukcia datab\u00e1zy GVI Projections<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>V\u00fdchodiskov\u00fdmi d\u00e1tami pre GVI projekcie s\u00fa hodnoty z roku 2020. Projekcie pre roky 2025 \u2013 2100 s\u00fa odvoden\u00e9 z viacer\u00fdch datab\u00e1z SSP. Pre indik\u00e1tory ako HDP na obyvate\u013ea, d\u013a\u017eka \u017eivota, miera z\u00e1vislosti a urbaniz\u00e1cia bol pou\u017eit\u00fd dvojstup\u0148ov\u00fd postup \u00fapravy, ktor\u00fd harmonizoval d\u00e1ta zo Svetovej banky\/UNDP s projekciami SSP. Pre chudobu, spr\u00e1vu vec\u00ed verejn\u00fdch a rodov\u00fd index boli vyvinut\u00e9 regresn\u00e9 predik\u010dn\u00e9 modely na preklad defin\u00edci\u00ed medzi datab\u00e1zami. Indik\u00e1tory ako pr\u00edstup k elektrine a mobiln\u00fdm telef\u00f3nom boli predpovedan\u00e9 s predpokladom dosiahnutia glob\u00e1lnej satur\u00e1cie v r\u00f4znych \u010dasov\u00fdch r\u00e1mcoch pre ka\u017ed\u00fd SSP. Indik\u00e1tor \u201epr\u00edstup k bezpe\u010dne riaden\u00fdm slu\u017eb\u00e1m pitnej vody\u201c bol z projekci\u00ed vynechan\u00fd, ke\u010f\u017ee jeho dostupnos\u0165 je viac priamo spojen\u00e1 s klimatick\u00fdmi zmenami a nie \u010disto socioekonomick\u00fdmi faktormi. Fin\u00e1lne GVI projekcie s\u00fa teda zalo\u017een\u00e9 na desiatich indik\u00e1toroch.<\/p>\n<p><strong>K\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e9 zistenia a projekcie<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Projekcie GVI ukazuj\u00fa <strong>v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 zn\u00ed\u017eenie socioekonomickej zranite\u013enosti pod scen\u00e1rom SSP1<\/strong> v priebehu 21. storo\u010dia, pri\u010dom najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161ie zlep\u0161enie vykazuj\u00fa krajiny s vysokou zranite\u013enos\u0165ou. Pod SSP2 sa o\u010dak\u00e1va pomal\u0161ie, ale st\u00e1le v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 zn\u00ed\u017eenie, zatia\u013e \u010do <strong>SSP3 ukazuje len ve\u013emi mal\u00e9 zlep\u0161enie<\/strong>, pri\u010dom pretrv\u00e1vaj\u00fa ve\u013ek\u00e9 rozdiely v GVI medzi krajinami. Region\u00e1lne vzorce zranite\u013enosti pretrv\u00e1vaj\u00fa, pri\u010dom Severn\u00e1 Amerika, z\u00e1padn\u00e1 a severn\u00e1 Eur\u00f3pa, a Austr\u00e1lia s Nov\u00fdm Z\u00e9landom vykazuj\u00fa najni\u017e\u0161ie hodnoty GVI, zatia\u013e \u010do regi\u00f3ny v Afrike, ju\u017enej \u00c1zii a tichomorsk\u00fdch ostrovn\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1toch maj\u00fa najvy\u0161\u0161ie predpokladan\u00e9 hodnoty. Pod SSP1 by vysoko zranite\u013en\u00e9 krajiny mohli dosiahnu\u0165 socioekonomick\u00e9 podmienky porovnate\u013en\u00e9 s dne\u0161n\u00fdmi n\u00edzkou zranite\u013en\u00fdmi krajinami.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Overenie a dostupnos\u0165 d\u00e1t<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Datab\u00e1za GVI Projections je verejne dostupn\u00e1 ako zip arch\u00edv na repozit\u00e1ri Figshare a na webovej str\u00e1nke Global Data Lab. Robustnostn\u00e9 testy preuk\u00e1zali <strong>vysok\u00fa stabilitu GVI<\/strong> aj pri odstr\u00e1nen\u00ed jedn\u00e9ho alebo dvoch z\u00e1kladn\u00fdch indik\u00e1torov, s korel\u00e1ciami presahuj\u00facimi 0,94. To potvrdzuje, \u017ee \u013eudsk\u00e9 aspekty rozvoja s\u00fa navz\u00e1jom vysoko korelovan\u00e9. Porovnanie s met\u00f3dou faktorovej anal\u00fdzy tie\u017e uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee obe met\u00f3dy ved\u00fa k takmer identick\u00fdm v\u00fdsledkom. Tieto zistenia posil\u0148uj\u00fa d\u00f4veru v pou\u017eite\u013enos\u0165 GVI pre dlhodob\u00e9 projekcie. <em><strong>\u062c\u064a\u0647 \u0622\u0631 \u0622\u064a<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Zistenia, <\/span><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41597-025-05732-z\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">publikovan\u00e9<\/span><\/a><\/span><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062c\u0644\u0629\u00a0<\/span><i><span dir=\"auto\">Scientific Data<\/span><\/i><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nov\u00e1 datab\u00e1za GVI Projections Database predstavuje projekcie socioekonomickej zranite\u013enosti pre takmer v\u0161etky krajiny sveta v obdob\u00ed rokov 2020 a\u017e 2100. T\u00e1to datab\u00e1za je cenn\u00fdm zdrojom pre monitorovanie \u013eudsk\u00fdch komponentov zranite\u013en<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-klimaticka-zmena"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37534","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37534"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37534\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37534"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37534"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37534"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}