{"id":37092,"date":"2025-07-28T06:38:28","date_gmt":"2025-07-28T04:38:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/?p=37092"},"modified":"2025-07-28T06:39:17","modified_gmt":"2025-07-28T04:39:17","slug":"rekordne-oteplovanie-oceanov-dosiahli-sme-bod-zlomu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/2025\/07\/28\/rekordne-oteplovanie-oceanov-dosiahli-sme-bod-zlomu\/","title":{"rendered":"Rekordn\u00e9 otep\u013eovanie oce\u00e1nov. Dosiahli sme bod zlomu?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Glob\u00e1lne otep\u013eovanie sa odr\u00e1\u017ea najm\u00e4 v oce\u00e1noch, ktor\u00e9 absorbuj\u00fa takmer 90\u202f% nadbyto\u010dn\u00e9ho tepla v klimatickom syst\u00e9me. Pod\u013ea NOAA bol rok 2024 najteplej\u0161\u00ed v hist\u00f3rii aj pre povrch oce\u00e1nov \u2013 prakticky v\u0161etky <!--more-->oce\u00e1ny dosiahli v tomto roku rekordn\u00e9 teploty. Eur\u00f3pska slu\u017eba Copernicus hl\u00e1sila, \u017ee priemern\u00e1 ro\u010dn\u00e1 teplota hladiny mimo pol\u00e1rnych oblast\u00ed vzr\u00e1stla a\u017e na <strong>20,87\u202f\u00b0C<\/strong> (o 0,51\u202f\u00b0C nad norm\u00e1l 1991\u20132020). Rovnako Berkeley Earth uv\u00e1dza, \u017ee glob\u00e1lna teplota povrchu oce\u00e1nov v roku 2024 dosiahla o pribli\u017ene <strong>+1,15\u202f\u00b0C<\/strong> viac ne\u017e na preindustri\u00e1lnej \u00farovni (rok 1850\u20131900). Tieto \u00fadaje potvrdzuj\u00fa, \u017ee oce\u00e1ny sa zohrievaj\u00fa celosvetovo r\u00fdchlej\u0161ie ne\u017e kedyko\u013evek predt\u00fdm.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>NOAA (USA)<\/strong>: \u201eRok 2024 bol najteplej\u0161\u00ed rok zaznamenan\u00fd aj pre povrch oce\u00e1nu\u201c. Otep\u013eovanie sa pritom kumuluje v h\u013abke: od roku 1970 vyst\u00fapili najvy\u0161\u0161ie hodnoty tepelnej energie v oce\u00e1ne (horn\u00e9 2000\u202fm).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Copernicus (E\u00da)<\/strong>: Extra-pol\u00e1rna priemern\u00e1 SST (Sea Surface Temperature) dosiahla v roku 2024 <strong>20,87\u202f\u00b0C<\/strong>, \u010do predstavuje rekordn\u00fa anom\u00e1liu +0,51\u202f\u00b0C oproti referen\u010dn\u00e9mu obdobiu.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Berkeley Earth<\/strong>: Otep\u013eovanie morsk\u00e9ho povrchu vy\u00fasten\u00e9 v rekordn\u00fa ro\u010dn\u00fa anom\u00e1liu +1,15\u202f\u00b0C (oproti 1850\u20131900), pri\u010dom medzi rokmi 2022\u20132024 nastal najprud\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1rast pozorovan\u00fd v hist\u00f3rii d\u00e1t.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5>Vedeck\u00e9 prepojenie s klimatick\u00fdmi zlomu<\/h5>\n<p>Zv\u00fd\u0161enie teploty oce\u00e1nov je prepojen\u00e9 s potenci\u00e1lnymi \u201eklimatick\u00fdmi bodmi zlomu\u201c, kde doch\u00e1dza k nevratn\u00fdm zmen\u00e1m:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Slabnutie AMOC<\/strong>: Atlantick\u00e1 meridion\u00e1lna cirkul\u00e1cia (AMOC) pren\u00e1\u0161a tepl\u00fa vodu k severu. Viacer\u00e9 \u0161t\u00fadie varuj\u00fa, \u017ee <strong>oslabenie \u010di kolaps AMOC<\/strong> by mohol nasta\u0165 u\u017e v strednom 21. storo\u010d\u00ed. Anal\u00fdzy klimatick\u00fdch indik\u00e1torov uk\u00e1zali \u201esiln\u00e9 d\u00f4kazy\u201c, \u017ee AMOC sa bl\u00ed\u017ei k bifurka\u010dn\u00e9mu prahu. Napr\u00edklad d\u00e1nski vedci upozornili na mo\u017enos\u0165 \u201enadch\u00e1dzaj\u00faceho kolapsu AMOC\u201c medzi rokmi 2025 a 2095, najpravdepodobnej\u0161ie okolo polovice storo\u010dia. Oslabenie AMOC by malo dramatick\u00e9 n\u00e1sledky \u2013 napr\u00edklad modelov\u00e9 simul\u00e1cie ukazuj\u00fa, \u017ee pri \u00faplnom kolapse by sa severn\u00e1 Eur\u00f3pa v\u00fdrazne ochladila a tropick\u00e9 da\u017e\u010fov\u00e9 p\u00e1sy by sa posunuli (eur\u00f3pska zima by bola chladnej\u0161ia a\u017e o 4\u202f\u00b0C). \u010eal\u0161\u00edm efektom by bol prudk\u00fd n\u00e1rast lok\u00e1lnych \u00farovn\u00ed mora \u2013 \u0161t\u00fadie predpovedaj\u00fa dodato\u010dn\u00fdch ~15\u201320\u202fcm pr\u00edrastku morskej hladiny na americkom v\u00fdchodnom pobre\u017e\u00ed len v d\u00f4sledku slab\u0161ej AMOC.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bielenie koralov<\/strong>: Oce\u00e1nske b\u00farky a morsk\u00e1 smr\u0165 (marine heatwaves) sp\u00f4sobuj\u00fa mas\u00edvne bielenie koralov. U\u017e v roku 2023 dosiahli teploty v karibsk\u00fdch moriach extr\u00e9mne hodnoty (nad 38\u202f\u00b0C) a koraly stratili symbiotick\u00e9 riasy. NOAA varuje, \u017ee v lete 2024 sa o\u010dak\u00e1va <strong>\u010fal\u0161ia celosvetov\u00e1 vlna bielenia koralov<\/strong> \u2013 \u0161tvrt\u00e1 zaznamenan\u00e1 a doposia\u013e najrozsiahlej\u0161ia. Dlhodob\u00e9 teplotn\u00e9 extr\u00e9my a zvy\u0161uj\u00faca sa acidifik\u00e1cia v\u00fdrazne zni\u017euj\u00fa schopnos\u0165 koralov obnovi\u0165 koralov\u00fd \u00fates, \u010d\u00edm ohrozuj\u00fa biodiverzitu i rybolov pri pobre\u017e\u00ed tropick\u00fdch kraj\u00edn.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Redukcia uhl\u00edkov\u00e9ho potenci\u00e1lu oce\u00e1nov<\/strong>: Ako sa otep\u013euje oce\u00e1n, men\u00ed sa aj jeho kapacita zv\u00e4zova\u0165 CO\u2082. Modelov\u00e9 \u0161t\u00fadie ukazuj\u00fa, \u017ee pri vysok\u00fdch emisi\u00e1ch antropog\u00e9nny oce\u00e1nsky uhl\u00edkov\u00fd synopt vy\u00fasti iba do limitu ~1\u202fPgC\/rok, aj ke\u010f emisie CO\u2082 pokra\u010duj\u00fa r\u00e1s\u0165. Otep\u013eovanie sp\u00f4sobuje zhor\u0161en\u00fa premie\u0161anos\u0165 vodn\u00fdch vrstiev a ni\u017e\u0161iu rozpustnos\u0165 CO\u2082, \u010do v praxi znamen\u00e1 postupn\u00e9 \u201evy\u010derp\u00e1vanie\u201c prirodzenej schopnosti oce\u00e1nu pohlcova\u0165 uhl\u00edk.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Topiace sa \u013eadovce a st\u00fapaj\u00faca hladina<\/strong>: R\u00fdchly \u00fabytok \u013eadov\u00fdch \u0161t\u00edtov (Gr\u00f3nsko, Antarkt\u00edda) prid\u00e1va do oce\u00e1nov sladk\u00fa vodu a zvy\u0161uje hladinu. Tento pr\u00edsun \u010derstvej vody sni\u017euje slanos\u0165 Atlantiku, \u010do \u010falej ohrozuje stabilitu cirkul\u00e1cie AMOC (tzv. soln\u00fd feedback). IPCC varuje, \u017ee strata mas \u013eadovcov\u00fdch pol\u00ed sa stala na \u013eudskej \u0161k\u00e1le <strong>nezvratnou<\/strong> (aj po dosiahnut\u00ed cie\u013eov emisi\u00ed u\u017e nieko\u013eko storo\u010d\u00ed potrv\u00e1, k\u00fdm sa situ\u00e1cia stabilizuje).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5>Klimatick\u00e9 d\u00f4sledky otep\u013eovania oce\u00e1nov<\/h5>\n<p>Oce\u00e1n sa\u013eadzuje po\u010dasie aj ekosyst\u00e9my. Vy\u0161\u0161ia teplota hladiny znamen\u00e1 viac vlhkosti do atmosf\u00e9ry, silnej\u0161ie b\u00farky a extr\u00e9mnej\u0161\u00ed po\u010dasie:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Intenz\u00edvne tropick\u00e9 cykl\u00f3ny<\/strong>: Zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 energia vo vode vedie k silnej\u0161\u00edm hurik\u00e1nom. \u0160t\u00fadie ukazuj\u00fa, \u017ee glob\u00e1lne otep\u013eovanie zv\u00fd\u0161ilo maxim\u00e1lne vetern\u00e9 r\u00fdchlosti ~80\u202f% hurik\u00e1nov Atlantick\u00e9ho oce\u00e1nu v rokoch 2019\u20132023 o priemerne +29\u202fkm\/h. V roku 2024 bol tento efekt jasn\u00fd u v\u0161etk\u00fdch jeden\u00e1stich hurik\u00e1nov v Atlantiku, ktor\u00fdch r\u00fdchlos\u0165 vetra st\u00fapla pribli\u017ene o 5\u201323\u202fkm\/h v d\u00f4sledku teplej\u0161\u00edch v\u00f4d. Tak\u00e9to zintenz\u00edvnenie predstavuje enormn\u00fd n\u00e1rast potenci\u00e1lnych \u0161k\u00f4d, lebo ka\u017ed\u00e1 kateg\u00f3ria Saffir-Simpsonovej stupnice nesie cca \u0161tvorn\u00e1sobn\u00fd n\u00e1rast \u0161k\u00f4d (napr. 2\u21923).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Extr\u00e9mne zr\u00e1\u017eky a povodne<\/strong>: Teplej\u0161ie oce\u00e1ny vyp\u00fa\u0161\u0165aj\u00fa viac pary, \u010do k\u0155mi v\u00fddatnej\u0161ie b\u00farky a pr\u00edvalov\u00e9 da\u017ede. EPA poukazuje, \u017ee za posledn\u00e9 desa\u0165ro\u010dia prudko prib\u00fadaj\u00fa jednotkov\u00e9 extr\u00e9mne zr\u00e1\u017eky. V USA od roku 1995 kles\u00e1 prakticky nepretr\u017eite v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina krajiny zabr\u00e1nen\u00e1 do jednor\u00e1zov\u00fdch pr\u00edvalov, pri\u010dom podobn\u00fd trend pozoruj\u00fa aj in\u00e9 regi\u00f3ny sveta. Intenz\u00edvne vlhk\u00e9 pr\u00fady s\u00fa spojen\u00e9 so z\u00e1plavami, er\u00f3ziou a prudk\u00fdmi povod\u0148ami, ktor\u00e9 ni\u010dia infra\u0161trukt\u00faru a po\u013enohospod\u00e1rstvo.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Oceanick\u00e9 tepeln\u00e9 vlny a \u00fahyn \u017eivo\u010d\u00edchov<\/strong>: Dlh\u00e9 obdobia mimoriadne teplej vody (oce\u00e1nske tepeln\u00e9 vlny) u\u017e viedli k ve\u013ek\u00fdm zmen\u00e1m v ekosyst\u00e9moch. Napr\u00edklad tepl\u00e1 vlna v Tichom oce\u00e1ne (2013\u20132016) sp\u00f4sobila mas\u00edvne \u00fahyny r\u00fdb a krabov, ke\u010f popul\u00e1cie plankt\u00f3nov\u00fdch r\u00fdb migrovali do chladnej\u0161\u00edch v\u00f4d a tis\u00edce ml\u00e1\u010fat tule\u0148ov a tule\u0148ov uhynuli na hladovku. Ekosyst\u00e9mov\u00e1 nerovnov\u00e1ha sa \u0161\u00edri potravinov\u00fdm re\u0165azcom \u2013 napr\u00edklad plankton vo vod\u00e1ch je citliv\u00fd na teplotu a pri jej prekro\u010den\u00ed kles\u00e1 jeho biomasa, \u010d\u00edm kles\u00e1 aj potrava pre v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ie ryby a kytovce. Po\u017eehnan\u00fdm pr\u00edkladom je progn\u00f3za pre Atlantick\u00fd pobre\u017en\u00fd rybolov v USA: pri s\u00fa\u010dasnom otep\u013eovan\u00ed klesne do roku 2060 \u00falovok a\u017e o 20\u201330\u202f%, ke\u010f\u017ee teplomiln\u00e9 druhy migruj\u00fa severne a trad\u00edcie rybolovu sa naru\u0161uj\u00fa.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Koralov\u00e9 \u00fatesy a biodiversita<\/strong>: Koraly \u2013 z\u00e1kladce mnoh\u00fdch potravinov\u00fdch re\u0165azcov v tropick\u00fdch moriach \u2013 sa bledej\u00fa a hyn\u00fa pri zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fdch teplot\u00e1ch. Mas\u00edvne bielenie (strata rias v symbi\u00f3ze s koralmi) zni\u017euje odolnos\u0165 \u00fatesov vo\u010di chorob\u00e1m a ohrozuje tis\u00edce druhov, ktor\u00e9 z\u00e1visia od koralov\u00e9ho prostredia. NOAA u\u017e v roku 2024 indikovala potenci\u00e1l \u201enajrozsiahlej\u0161ieho\u201c bielenia koralov v hist\u00f3rii, zasahuj\u00faceho v\u0161etky oce\u00e1ny.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5>Scen\u00e1re bud\u00facnosti a hrozba bodov zlomu<\/h5>\n<p>Vedci sk\u00famaj\u00fa, \u010di sa bl\u00ed\u017eime k nezvratn\u00fdm zmen\u00e1m:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Kolaps AMOC<\/strong>: Ak hranica stability AMOC prelom\u00ed, nastane <strong>n\u00e1hly klimatick\u00fd prechod<\/strong>. Niektor\u00e9 projekcie hovoria o mo\u017enom kolapse AMOC u\u017e okolo roku 2050. V takom scen\u00e1ri by napr. Eur\u00f3pa cite\u013ene ochladla (severn\u00e1 \u010das\u0165 by kontrastovala s glob\u00e1lnym otep\u013eovan\u00edm) a vlhkos\u0165 tropick\u00fdch da\u017e\u010fov by sa posunula ju\u017enej\u0161ie. Tento extr\u00e9mny v\u00fdvoj by mal lok\u00e1lny ochladzuj\u00faci efekt (\u201eEur\u00f3pa samostatne\u201c), no napriek tomu by zvy\u0161ok sveta pokra\u010doval v otep\u013eovan\u00ed. IPCC SR-osea\u0301ny kon\u0161tatuje, \u017ee s \u00fasporou fos\u00edlnych pal\u00edv s\u00favis\u00ed jedin\u00e1 technicky dosiahnute\u013en\u00e1 prevencia \u2013 ak sa zn\u00ed\u017eia emisie, \u010fal\u0161ie oteplenie ustane a riziko tak\u00fdchto bodov zlomu klesne.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Nezvratn\u00e1 acidifik\u00e1cia a \u201etriple threat\u201c<\/strong>: Pokra\u010duj\u00faci rast CO\u2082 zni\u017euje pH oce\u00e1nu (acidifik\u00e1cia). S\u010dasti u\u017e kleslo o ~0,1\u202fpH od roku 1850. IPCC zd\u00f4raz\u0148uje, \u017ee otep\u013eovanie, kyseliny a zni\u017eovanie kysl\u00edka (deoxygen\u00e1cia) v oce\u00e1ne patria k javom, ktor\u00e9 zostan\u00fa nezvratn\u00e9 na storo\u010dia a\u017e tis\u00edcro\u010dia. Projekt COMFORT (financovan\u00fd E\u00da) upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee kombin\u00e1cia t\u00fdchto troch faktorov (tzv. \u201etriple threat\u201c) vytv\u00e1ra sp\u00e4tnov\u00e4zbov\u00e9 slu\u010dky s nebezpe\u010d\u00edm \u201enevratn\u00fdch\u201c syst\u00e9mov\u00fdch zvratov v oce\u00e1noch. In\u00fdmi slovami, ak prekro\u010d\u00edme kritick\u00e9 koncentr\u00e1cie CO\u2082, m\u00f4\u017eu sa spusti\u0165 r\u00fdchle kolapsy \u00fatesov, pokles kysl\u00edka a \u010fal\u0161ie efekty, z ktor\u00fdch by sa pr\u00edrodn\u00fd syst\u00e9m u\u017e nedok\u00e1zal \u013eahko vr\u00e1ti\u0165 na predch\u00e1dzaj\u00facu trajekt\u00f3riu.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u0645\u0635\u0627\u062f\u0631:<\/strong> Najnov\u0161ie glob\u00e1lne oce\u00e1nske \u00fadaje a anal\u00fdzy poskytuj\u00fa NOAA a Copernicus, k nim dop\u013a\u0148aj\u00fa nez\u00e1visl\u00e9 hodnotenia Berkeley Earth. Klimatick\u00e9 d\u00f4sledky a potenci\u00e1lne body zlomu s\u00fa pop\u00edsan\u00e9 v aktu\u00e1lnych vedeck\u00fdch \u0161t\u00fadi\u00e1ch (napr. Rahmstorf et al. o AMOC, Climate Central o hurik\u00e1noch, Terhaar o oce\u00e1nskom uhl\u00edkovom synopte, \u010di IPCC a projekt COMFORT o nezvratn\u00fdch zmen\u00e1ch). Ka\u017ed\u00fd z t\u00fdchto zdrojov dokumentuje v\u00e1\u017enos\u0165 otep\u013eovania oce\u00e1nov a v\u00fdzvy, ktor\u00e9 pred nami stoja. <em><strong>\u062c\u064a\u0647 \u0622\u0631 \u0622\u064a<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Glob\u00e1lne otep\u013eovanie sa odr\u00e1\u017ea najm\u00e4 v oce\u00e1noch, ktor\u00e9 absorbuj\u00fa takmer 90\u202f% nadbyto\u010dn\u00e9ho tepla v klimatickom syst\u00e9me. Pod\u013ea NOAA bol rok 2024 najteplej\u0161\u00ed v hist\u00f3rii aj pre povrch oce\u00e1nov \u2013 prakticky v\u0161etky<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37092","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-klimaticka-zmena"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37092","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37092"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37092\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37092"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37092"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.co2news.sk\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37092"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}